Do yall have any reasoning or evidence to make this race tilt R? Kelly underperforming is not a good reason since Dems underperformed pretty much everywhere at every level.
It's tossup/tilt D till I see more.
It's a swing state with a strong Republican recruit in a Democratic midterm in a state Biden barely won. It's not unreasonable to point out that the fundamentals of this race favor Republicans. It's a toss-up at best, and that's being generous to Democrats.
I assume the strong Republican recruit you reference is Brnovich. There is no guarantee he is going to be the nominee. He is going to have to survive a potentially bitter primary including against Peter Thiel's guy who will have a huge PAC behind him. Whoever does win will face an incumbent who does not have to spend in the primaries and who has proven he can raise a metric sh**t ton of $$$$. There is a reason almost all incumbents start off as favorites. Personally I would have it lean D at this point can understand a tossup rating. I just don't see the tilt/lean Republican talk though.
