2020 New York Redistricting

[Minnesota Mike]

I was promised maps this weekend, where are the F****** maps?

[Minnesota Mike]

NY 24th is one of the ugliest districts i have ever seen lol

Nothing, and I mean nothing, compares to the original early 90s NC-12.

Early 90's LA-04 is pretty terrible,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana%27s_congressional_districts#/media/File:United_States_Congressional_Districts_in_Louisiana,_1993_%E2%80%93_1994.tif

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

[Minnesota Mike]

This opinion will be automatically stayed when the Democrats appeal. This is the end of the beginning not the beginning of the end.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/NYSBOE/status/1509899743396311059

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517258325943103489

[Minnesota Mike]

Was not an entire win for Republicans, judges gave the legislature until April 30 to draw maps instead of going immediately to a special master. All of this will be appealed.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517271516144189442

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly given NY's constitution probably the correct ruling. Lets see if Florida's Supreme Court is as impartial (I have my doubts).

That having been said the whole system is broken. Florida, which Trump won by 2.5 points, will net Republicans more seats than New York, which Biden by 23, will net Democrats.

[Minnesota Mike]

Sounds like the commision is not going to make major changes.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/14/house-redistricting-new-york-00141458

The new lines could provide modest boosts to Democrats in two competitive upstate districts and to Republicans in another upstate seat, according to three state officials, including members of both parties, who have been briefed on the parameters. But there’s an expectation they will leave several competitive districts in New York City’s suburbs essentially unchanged.

The most significant change, according to the state officials briefed on the plans, would be to the Central New York district held by freshman Republican Rep. Brandon Williams.....

The lines that are currently expected would be somewhere in between these two plans — Auburn, but not Ithaca, is likely to join Syracuse. That would allow for a 4-point shift toward Democrats, according to the officials.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

You really think a supermajority will just rubber stamp a neutral map?

I think they are fearful of the uncertainty of more court action. Reading between the lines it sounds like the commision map has the blessing of both parties powers that be. I could be wrong but that's what I think.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1758191772394541387

[Minnesota Mike]

Passed the commision 9-1. I know a lot of you don't want to believe it but the deal has been made and their is a 99% chance this is close to the final map (maybe minor changes within 2%).

[Minnesota Mike]

Does anyone have the DRA for this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1eab774a-ac67-4138-853a-ab71ec5f02d0

[Minnesota Mike]

Passed the commision 9-1. I know a lot of you don't want to believe it but the deal has been made and their is a 99% chance this is close to the final map (maybe minor changes within 2%).

Not sure what the commission has to do with the legislature rejecting/accepting it. Seems clear the legislature will likely reject this. Two completely different entities

 

New York’s congressional and state legislative lines are drawn primarily by a 10-person independent commission, at least in the first instance.  Each of the four legislative leaders (majority and minority leader in each legislative chamber) chooses 2 commissioners; those 8 commissioners choose 2 others who have not been registered Democrats or Republicans for the last 5 years.

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/new-york/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=20201-01-01

These are not random people off the street, they are party functionaries picked by legislative leadership. To think the legislature had no imput in these maps is naive.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/26/new-york-democrats-house-map-00143307

The current thinking is that lawmakers will stick to the confines of 2012 legislation that says districts they draw can’t vary by more than 2 percent from the ones in the commission’s plans. So at least 761,000 people in a 777,000-person district as drawn by the commission would need to be the same in the amended map passed by the Legislature.

That means there can’t be many dramatic overhauls from the maps drawn by the commission — but there will still be some changes.

[Minnesota Mike]

-snip-

Anyway,  here's confirmation of the maps death if anyone still believed in it. Which reminds one to never speak with confidence about fluid situations:

Passed the commision 9-1. I know a lot of you don't want to believe it but the deal has been made and their is a 99% chance this is close to the final map (maybe minor changes within 2%).

OK I will admit I was wrong on the 2% but the final product is pretty close to the commision map.

[Minnesota Mike]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

That's not really true. Don't get me wrong Republicans do aggressively gerrymander most of the time but they did leave some seats on the table this last cycle. Texas is an egregious gerrymander but Republicans could have drawn a couple more Republican leaning seats in it if they didn't draw every incumbent an ultra safe seat. Republicans could also have been more aggressive in Indiana, Missouri, and possibly Kentucky if they wanted.