NY-27: Collins leads Hochul by 13 in internal

[Talleyrand]

Well, this was taken before Romney picked Ryan.

Its not like Hochul ran on opposition to the Ryan budget and won or anything.

Siena will have a poll from here out over the weekend.

I'm going to wait until Siena's poll to make conclusions about this election then. I highly doubt Collins is already up thirteen, but Hochul is almost certainly down. In a R+8 district against a self-funder worth in the hundreds of millions, her personal popularity and campaigning skills can help her so much (I know Corwin also met that description, but the district is more red now and the environment's not as favorable).

I don't think Corwin was a dud. On paper and in practice, she isn't much different than Collins; a multimillionaire technocratic Establishment Republican. And how exactly is Collins more able to handle these attacks?

[Talleyrand]

He may know that, but it doesn't mean he will. Corwin certainly was aware of that as well. And you know, well, Collins lost too- and he was a well-known incumbent. He went from winning 64-36 in 2007 to losing in 2011, a more Republican years. Does that make him a dud in your opinion?

I bet if Corwin chose a rematch this year, she would have led by a similar, although slightly smaller margin.

And BTW, I agree about Cox, Tedisco, and Scozofavva being duds, but there was no reason for suggesting I think "think duds are only produced by Tea Party primary challenges". I don't recall making any suggestion of that sort.

[Talleyrand]

Just Scozzafava. Lol.

Basically, I think you are just putting too much blame on Corwin for the loss, though I do think Collins is a somewhat stronger candidate. He probably does have a better opportunity, but not by much.

I think two things make your comparison to previous specials inaccurate.

1. Both those special elections were held in 2007-2008, and followed by a general in 2008. These were very bad times for Democrats and I don't think if the GOP had switched candidates for the general, much would have changed. In 2010, after losing by 7 points in the PA-12 special, Tim Burns was able to tighten the margin to just 2 points in the general due to the environment. Since this year is a bit more similar to 2010 to 2008, and factoring in the next point, Corwin would probably start off neutralizing Hochul's lead to nothing.

2. Neither of those districts had been redistricted. Hochul's district is now significantly more conservative and features a fair amount of new territory. Corwin would be more likely to get a "do-over" in this district, rather than be a retread.