I say Arizona becomes lean-D in the 2020s, especially if the Senate immigration reform bill passes (the 2024 election would probably be the first election that would affect because of its 11-year citizenship wait-list/process).
It's probably not a serious battle-ground until 2020, unless the 2016 election has the Democrat hitting 54% or something. I actually made a poll in early 2012 asking the forum specifically on how they thought Arizona would vote in 2012 compared to 2008 and the consensus was that Obama would improve:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=146912.0I think most of us were surprised by Arizona basically staying static in 2012. Had it shifted to something like 52R/47D/1O, I'd probably be saying toss-up by 2016. Basically I'm moving my prediction back four years. I refuse to believe Arizona will do a repeat of 2012 (hardly moving) in 2016.
