Arizona: Only a matter of time, but how much time?

[JRP1994]

How long will it be before Arizona

1) Becomes a serious battleground state?
2) Reaches the national tipping-point?
3) Becomes Democratic leaning?

Here are recent stats:

2000: R+3.08
2004: R+4.14
2008: R+7.79
2012: R+6.27

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Maybe 10 years, but if Republicans improve their Latino outreach, then probably never.

And as younger Latinos assimilate more, they will probably become more Republican than they are now.

[sg0508]

The statewide AZ GOP is still far stronger than the statewide democratic party.  The republicans have put up some relatively beatable congressional candidates over the past decade (Kyl, etc) and the democrats couldn't beat them.  Plus, the tougher image on immigration has served the GOP pretty well there for the past few years.

The amazing thing is that when the GOP wins there, the county map is exactly the same almost every time.  Maricopa literally mirrors the statewide vote percentage almost every time.   The demographic change will help the democrats, but the bigger change (and the one that got Clinton the victory over Dole in '96) is that AZ is becoming a bigger haven for retirees and thus, medicare and SS will become bigger issues there going forward.

AZ and GA were the two states I figured Obama would make a bigger play at in 2012, but he didn't need to, as Romney boxed himself into too much of an electoral college corner.  

[JRP1994]

AZ and GA were the two states I figured Obama would make a bigger play at in 2012, but he didn't need to, as Romney boxed himself into too much of an electoral college corner. 

THIS. Conversely, I expected Romney to actually compete in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, ME-02, New Mexico, and Oregon. The best defense is a good offense.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, this state has much more democratic ability than Texas, and much more than people think. The White vote was 66% for Romney and the state only went 54% for him. Its a pretty secular state, the state has only gone to the right simply because of the white vote, and it actually might stay that way. Democrats have to make indentations in white vote or what till the state becomes Hispanic enough to become less republican. However there are a series of factors that could happen between now and then. White voters and Hispanic voters could both become more republican, who knows?

[sg0508]

Again, it's not just the hispanic inflow.  Watch the number of retirees and even young voters that are moving to AZ.  That may help the democrats more in the end.

[barfbag]

Your numbers show that it's becoming more Republican with an exception of 2012 right after their own senator was the Republican nominee. Had someone else ran in 2008, we would've seen a smaller trend to the right in 2008 and another small trend to the right in 2012. This question is of the most absurd on this forum. Sure if the Democrats win by enough they can come somewhat close, but Arizona just isn't battleground territory, but light red along with Louisiana, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. A lot of Democrats have wishful liberal thinking to get in the heads of Republicans about it, but the truth is if anything it's trended to the right on average. I don't see it going blue anymore than Illinois going red.

[illegaloperation]

The path to victory for Democrats is to: run up the margin in Pima County (especially), Coconino County, Santa Cruz County, Apache County, Arizona, and Pinal County; win Navajo County, Gila County, Greenlee County, while minimizing losses elsewhere (specifically Maricopa County).

[barfbag]

The path to victory for Democrats is to: run up the margin in Pima County (especially), Coconino County, Santa Cruz County, Apache County, Arizona, and Pinal County; win Navajo County, Gila County, Greenlee County, while minimizing losses elsewhere (specifically Maricopa County).

This sounds easier said than done.

[ElectionsGuy]

Your numbers show that it's becoming more Republican with an exception of 2012 right after their own senator was the Republican nominee. Had someone else ran in 2008, we would've seen a smaller trend to the right in 2008 and another small trend to the right in 2012. This question is of the most absurd on this forum. Sure if the Democrats win by enough they can come somewhat close, but Arizona just isn't battleground territory, but light red along with Louisiana, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. A lot of Democrats have wishful liberal thinking to get in the heads of Republicans about it, but the truth is if anything it's trended to the right on average. I don't see it going blue anymore than Illinois going red.

I would would argue these are all very safe states, with the exception of South Carolina being a likely but inelastic state.

[Devils30]

The fact that AZ was McCain's home state provided him a big boost in 2008 and many of the whites who never voted for Obama in 2008 simply were not going to in 2012 after having no attachment. Had AZ not been McCain's home i think the state votes much like NC in both 2008, 2012.

[eric82oslo]

The fact that AZ was McCain's home state provided him a big boost in 2008 and many of the whites who never voted for Obama in 2008 simply were not going to in 2012 after having no attachment. Had AZ not been McCain's home i think the state votes much like NC in both 2008, 2012.

Good point. I think Obama didn't feel like competing there because of his fight/personal dislike with Jan Brewer. Instead he chose to compete in the more friendlier territories of Virginia and North Carolina, which in many respects are more conservative than Arizona (very much more religious for one). Yet they did offer huge amounts of African Americans. Once Obama is no longer the nominee, I expect Virginia and North Carolina will become slightly harder to win for Democrats, while Arizona and Florida on the other hand should become easier to win instead, especialy if the next Democratic nominee actually doesn't surrender the state before she's even started.

[JRP1994]

Your numbers show that it's becoming more Republican with an exception of 2012 right after their own senator was the Republican nominee. Had someone else ran in 2008, we would've seen a smaller trend to the right in 2008 and another small trend to the right in 2012. This question is of the most absurd on this forum. Sure if the Democrats win by enough they can come somewhat close, but Arizona just isn't battleground territory, but light red along with Louisiana, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. A lot of Democrats have wishful liberal thinking to get in the heads of Republicans about it, but the truth is if anything it's trended to the right on average. I don't see it going blue anymore than Illinois going red.

1) The numbers indicate that the state trended Democratic from 2000 to 2004, trended Republican in 2008 (due to favorite son John McCain), and resumed the gradual Democratic trend in 2012. I will grant that it is further to the right now that it was in 2004 - but I do expect the state to continue trending left - slowly, but trending.

2) Louisiana (R+12), West Virginia (R+13), South Carolina (R+8) and Tennessee (R+12) are all more Republican (and, with the exception of West Virginia, FAR less elastic) than Arizona (R+7). South Carolina is probably the best comparison, but it has an elasticity score of 0.72, compared to Arizona's score of 1.13.

3) I agree with you that Arizona is not a swing state - yet. But who among us, in 2005, would have been taken seriously if we asserted that North Carolina would be a swing state in the next 2 elections?

[eric82oslo]

3) I agree with you that Arizona is not a swing state - yet. But who among us, in 2005, would have been taken seriously if we asserted that North Carolina would be a swing state in the next 2 elections?

Also the majority of House members from Arizona are currently Democratic and the last Senate race was very close (Flake winning with only 3%). Also, the two Senators they do have, McCain and Flake, are also among the Senate's most moderate Republicans. Especially on a topic like immigration. So no Jan Brewer influence there luckily.

[barfbag]

3) I agree with you that Arizona is not a swing state - yet. But who among us, in 2005, would have been taken seriously if we asserted that North Carolina would be a swing state in the next 2 elections?

Also the majority of House members from Arizona are currently Democratic and the last Senate race was very close (Flake winning with only 3%). Also, the two Senators they do have, McCain and Flake, are also among the Senate's most moderate Republicans. Especially on a topic like immigration. So no Jan Brewer influence there luckily.

This has been the way of Arizona for over 20 years though. The light redness of the state is nothing new. As for whether or not Arizona will be a battleground state depends on how much the state trend continues. Arizona Democrats aren't exactly the most liberal either and that's where the U.S. House district lines come from. I don't see it becoming a Nevada or Colorado though.

[Downnice]

The GOP was a disastor with latinos in 2012 and should do better. Add that with the snowbirds I am not sure it goes to the Dems unless the Republicans still self destruct with the Latino vote

[barfbag]

The GOP was a disastor with latinos in 2012 and should do better. Add that with the snowbirds I am not sure it goes to the Dems unless the Republicans still self destruct with the Latino vote

Arizona hasn't changed much at the presidential level since the 80's.

[greenforest32]

I say Arizona becomes lean-D in the 2020s, especially if the Senate immigration reform bill passes (the 2024 election would probably be the first election that would affect because of its 11-year citizenship wait-list/process).

It's probably not a serious battle-ground until 2020, unless the 2016 election has the Democrat hitting 54% or something. I actually made a poll in early 2012 asking the forum specifically on how they thought Arizona would vote in 2012 compared to 2008 and the consensus was that Obama would improve: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=146912.0

I think most of us were surprised by Arizona basically staying static in 2012. Had it shifted to something like 52R/47D/1O, I'd probably be saying toss-up by 2016. Basically I'm moving my prediction back four years. I refuse to believe Arizona will do a repeat of 2012 (hardly moving) in 2016.

[barfbag]

I say Arizona becomes lean-D in the 2020s, especially if the Senate immigration reform bill passes (the 2024 election would probably be the first election that would affect because of its 11-year citizenship wait-list/process).

It's probably not a serious battle-ground until 2020, unless the 2016 election has the Democrat hitting 54% or something. I actually made a poll in early 2012 asking the forum specifically on how they thought Arizona would vote in 2012 compared to 2008 and the consensus was that Obama would improve: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=146912.0

I think most of us were surprised by Arizona basically staying static in 2012. Had it shifted to something like 52R/47D/1O, I'd probably be saying toss-up by 2016. Basically I'm moving my prediction back four years. I refuse to believe Arizona will do a repeat of 2012 (hardly moving) in 2016.

Democrats have been consistently between 43% and 45% in Arizona for four elections. It hasn't really moved. I know it stayed the same in 2012, but McCain had just been the nominee. Had someone else ran in 2008 it would've been within a handful of points.