Argentina 2023 election

[Peeperkorn]

There’s a poll of FIT with 6.5% of the vote. It’s most likely inflated, but one can dream.

Not happening.

[Peeperkorn]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1635752878445830146?s=20

[Peeperkorn]

Trelew and Lloyd Jones? Is that a Welsh area?

Yes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y_Wladfa

[Peeperkorn]

The A24 network made a "spontaneous" live tv poll of what candidate random people supported for President and Larreta won (and in La Matanza!). But soon everybody realized that his "supporters" were actually actors picked by the reporter if they were drinking Fanta:

https://twitter.com/DruidBloggerOK/status/1656257235406790657?s=20

https://twitter.com/Felii_N/status/1656121964308619264?s=20

[Peeperkorn]

FIT seems to be overperforming their usual support at around 3% for regional elections we have seen so far. Any reason as to why?

It's what you want to see, that could be a reason. It's not actually happening though.

[Peeperkorn]

Larreta's most human moment:

https://twitter.com/therealbuni/status/1687143305149038592?s=20

[Peeperkorn]

I heard Former Buenos Aires Province Governor Maria Eugenia Vidal endorsed Larreta while Macri is giving signs of endorsing Bullrich.

How is the JxC PASO going to tilt as a result of this?

Vidal has very little influence anywhere and Macri has been backing Bullrich for months

Which is the rationality of Macri going with Bullrich while Larreta was his longtime ally? Did he disrupt any Macri's interests in CABA management?

Pro is divided in two wings, with Larreta leading the "doves" and Bullrich the "hawks", Macri has also moved to the right since he left the presidency

The divide isn't 100% ideological though, that wouldn't explain cases like Espert supporting Larreta. It's also money and apparently Larreta has a lot more than Bullrich.

[Peeperkorn]

I don’t think anyone out of the center-right coalition is winning the actual election, probably Bullrich, but still hoping for a Massa overperformance today.

Why do you hate Argentina so much?

[Peeperkorn]

A few live feeds to follow election night:

C5N:

Please, don't recommend C5N...("Ganó Scioli").

More (better) options:

[Peeperkorn]

C5N has been comically doomerish recently so they might be worth watching for that reason alone. Probably not the best choice for objectivity though

I'm planning to watch C5N if Massa + Grabois are below 30%. But I don't think that will happen.

[Peeperkorn]

Milei overperformance wouldn’t be surprising at all.

It would, these are primary elections and Milei doesn't have any relevant party structure behind him.

[Peeperkorn]

El Trece/TN source of current state of the 3 main parties: (Government source)

30% Milei
25% JxC
25% UP

What an awful result for JxC.

What about Peronism? Lol

[Peeperkorn]

Milei overperformance wouldn’t be surprising at all.

It would, these are primary elections and Milei doesn't have any relevant party structure behind him.

He doesn’t but he has the context and THE outsider narrative in middle of a terrible situation no one seems to have any answer for. They already tried JxC with Macri and Peronists with Fernandez.

We’ve all seen this before. From the outside, we were all just hoping Argentinians were more level headed than its neighbors and would go with JxC before going for the weirdo.

Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism. Bolsonaro's triumph was unusual but not impossible considering a priori how weak the Brazilian party system is. This is completely different and absolutely mind blowing.

[Peeperkorn]

Milei overperformance wouldn’t be surprising at all.

It would, these are primary elections and Milei doesn't have any relevant party structure behind him.

He doesn’t but he has the context and THE outsider narrative in middle of a terrible situation no one seems to have any answer for. They already tried JxC with Macri and Peronists with Fernandez.

We’ve all seen this before. From the outside, we were all just hoping Argentinians were more level headed than its neighbors and would go with JxC before going for the weirdo.

Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism. Bolsonaro's triumph was unusual but not impossible considering a priori how weak the Brazilian party system is. This is completely different and absolutely mind blowing.

This has already been challenged by Macri’s own election though.

Though unprecedented, a Milei victory shouldn’t be surprising at all. The partisan system works on propelling JxC as the main opposition to the Peronists but Argentina has already elected Macri and clearly disliked him a lot.

Wanting an outsider from that shouldn’t be surprising when you look at how catastrophic their economic situation currently is. If their partisan system wasn’t that well-rounded, Milei would’ve been polling around 50% for a looong time now. It can somewhat repress it but not stop it if people are sick and tired of the two main options.

Btw, the partisan system in Brazil, as fragmented as it is, only looks more unpredictable AFTER PSDB losing its power and relevancy.

Because during the time I grew up with, between 1994-2014, PSDB was practically inevitable as the “main” center-right party. Dilma’s impeachment and all the 2015-2018 hysteria to bring down the left - joined by the media - was all done with the idea that PSDB would finally win presidency back in 2018 after four consecutive defeats.

Media and the elites didn’t expect Bolsonaro’s win at all! They wanted PSDB. But after he won 1st round, they kinda had to go along with him because he became the only alternative to PT.

And that’s how Bolsonarism hard conservativism unseated neoliberal PSDB as THE “right-wing” force, it wasn’t something predictable or expected at all. It’s much easier to attribute it as such in retrospect because we’ve already seen it been played out.

Again, you're trying to compare Brazilian and Argentinean politics and that's wrong. Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism that makes the left-right axis irrelevant.

[Peeperkorn]

https://twitter.com/ElTrumpista/status/1690883141089509376

https://twitter.com/osojudio/status/1690883371881136128

It would be crazy if Milei wins thanks to the provinces' votes instead of CABA's.

[Peeperkorn]

Again, you're trying to compare Brazilian and Argentinean politics and that's wrong. Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism that makes the left-right axis irrelevant.

Political polarization doesn’t need to be left vs right in order to effectively exist. And it’s showing signs it does clearly exist in Argentina, the strong party system at most represses it but not necessarily limits it or stops it.

I was talking about clientelism, do you live in Sweden?

[Peeperkorn]

Pintó C5N.

[Peeperkorn]

Again, you're trying to compare Brazilian and Argentinean politics and that's wrong. Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism that makes the left-right axis irrelevant.

Political polarization doesn’t need to be left vs right in order to effectively exist. And it’s showing signs it does clearly exist in Argentina, the strong party system at most represses it but not necessarily limits it or stops it.

I was talking about clientelism, do you live in Sweden?

Well then in that case that’s a big prejudice and misconception of yours about Brazil itself, to think that the shift from PSDB to Bolsonaro easily happened because of buying of votes (??) instead of the people’s actual will.

You didn’t live here between 2015-2018. As much as I hate Bolsonaro, I can fully say that people (filled with anti-PT hate and propaganda for four years straight) WANTED him because they wanted a radical change and break with the system.

Also, if you recognized before that Bolsonaro didn’t have partisan backing, then where the hell he got money to pay for votes?? Lmao. His campaign didn’t have any money in 2018, he was a nobody then. It was a full grassroots movement.

2022 is a different story, as he had the government machine on his side as president. But since we’re talking about 2018, what you’re saying makes absolutely zero sense.

In terms of political behaviors and culture, Argentina might actually be the closest country there is in the entire world to Brazil.

I think that you misunderstood me 100%, what I was trying to say is that I thought (maybe until today) that political machines in Argentina (Peronism) were more powerful than yours and therefore Brazil was a "healthier" democracy.

[Peeperkorn]

I realize that there's little point asking why anything is done in Argentina, easily the most risible country on the planet, but what exactly is the purpose of this 'primary' election? Is it just to waste more money? This seems plausible as doing so is Argentina's other national sport along with football, but there must be an official point as well?

?

This article may answer your question:

https://kids.kiddle.co/Primary_election

[Peeperkorn]

https://twitter.com/AssLatam/status/1691080530777772033?s=20

[Peeperkorn]

Wrong impression of yours, I’m referring to the Argentinians here not freaking out about Milei being possibly their next president.

Anything (even having a Libertarian as President) would be better than the criminals currently running the country.

[Peeperkorn]

Who would have said ten years ago that the criollo equivalent of Ron Paul would be the favorite to win the Argentine election?

[Peeperkorn]

Wrong impression of yours, I’m referring to the Argentinians here not freaking out about Milei being possibly their next president.

Anything (even having a Libertarian as President) would be better than the criminals currently running the country.

I heard the same thing in 2018 on a constant level, just replace the libertarian with military guy in your sentence.

No matter what bad situation you’re in, there’s ALWAYS the scenario of things getting worse.

But again, sometimes you have to live it in order to truly know it in your heart and get it out of your system, then so be it. Electing someone ineffective you dislike from UP or JxC could be just delaying some even worse reaction in the future after all.

My hope for you is that a Milei presidency suffers as much opposition as the Bolsonaro one did and is limited a lot by what congress allows him to do, making him more of a decorative entertainment clown figure and the long-term more destructive stuff isn’t passed.

It will be tough 4 years but you will survive. Everything will be okay.

Maybe. But at the same time I think that a free-market economy could work in Argentina, they are
the most talented society in Latin America on an individual level. The main issue is how to get there without a civil war on the streets.

[Peeperkorn]

My hope for you is that a Milei presidency suffers as much opposition as the Bolsonaro one did and is limited a lot by what congress allows him to do, making him more of a decorative entertainment clown figure and the long-term more destructive stuff isn’t passed.

It will be tough 4 years but you will survive. Everything will be okay.

Dude, he's from Uruguay, spare him the sermon lol

It’s literally the same thing!

Same culture but different political systems.

[Peeperkorn]

Thank heavens the Uruguayan Left is making a comeback next year.

I don't think so. And even if they win, they won't have a parliamentary majority.

Lacalle Pou, would enter in major conflict with Milei since Lacalle Pou wants to sign a trade deal with the Chinese!

We want free trade with everybody but especially with the USA, a Milei presidency would be great for that.