Ukraine Crisis

[Peeperkorn]

Snowstalker's heroes:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400276

[Peeperkorn]

Poland:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Peeperkorn]

The Guardian:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Peeperkorn]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

[Peeperkorn]

Russia created Putin. Russians like Putin. Russians need a Putin.

They have no changed since the Tsar's age.

If you think that with his death the people will be converted in happy liberal democrats, well, you are wrong.

[Peeperkorn]

And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?

In the crazy 90s every republic from the ex USSR without the support of Moscow wanted to be part of NATO and they had some deal here, some deal there, etc.

Caucasus is a mess, but a very attractive region for energetic purposes.

[Peeperkorn]

The U.S. is suspending its participation in the G8.

The puppet state of Canadia is doing the same.

[Peeperkorn]

30 minutes ago:


"Three former Ukranian Presidents, Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma and Víktor Yúschenko has asked the Kiev Paliament the military movilization of the country. "We have to be prepared to defend our Motherland" wrote in a text in Ukraínskaya Pravda."

Kuchma is a surprise, as he was a pro-Russia hero.

[Peeperkorn]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.

I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.

[Peeperkorn]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.

I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.

This will NOT satisfy the Russians. No more than giving Sudenten satisfied the Germans back in 1938. The only reason to do this is if you desperately want to go fighting on a Russian front in a couple of year. The only way to prevent THAT is to make it so painful to Russia right now, that they never think of a repeat.

Do you think that diplomatic sanctions would be enough?

[Peeperkorn]

There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.

Source: RT.

Nope.

[Peeperkorn]

Putin is playing a dangerous game here getting involved in Crimea. It's a pretty dire and unpredictable situation in Ukraine right now, I just hope it is resolved peacefully. But to undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine in such a blatant fashion is a surprising move even for someone as careless as Mr. Putin.

The West won't do anything.

Just listen to the NATO press conference.

It's a win-win situation for Putin.

[Peeperkorn]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/pressure-rising-as-obama-works-to-rein-in-russia.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Told you.

[Peeperkorn]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

[Peeperkorn]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.

[Peeperkorn]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.

Seems like the guy knows what he is saying. Also, sounds fairly plausible - fits what I myself know.

Yeah, the scenario makes a lot of sense.

[Peeperkorn]

I'm not so sure about this possible invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

If we believe in Russia's justification that Putin wants to protect their people (I don't), many maps posted in this thread showed that ethnic Russians are a plurality in little enclaves surrounded by ethnic Ukrainians. An intervention (and annexation) against that zones would destroy the credibility of the Casus Belli defended by Moscow.

I have "evolved" in my previous thoughts and I think that Putin wants Crimea for the only reason of not losing in a future Russian's naval bases and the traditional Manifest Destiny of every Russian Empire of an available-even-in-winter military port and a dominant position in the Black Sea.

Year after year the possibility of an "European" and pro NATO Ukraine increases.

That and the pipelines... but I would not talk about it because I've read different and many times contradictory information of the issue and I'm not a specialist in energy geopolitics.

--

In other words, if Putin  hasn't fell in megalomaniac dementia, I think that Crimea will be his last adventure for the moment. There are treaties, I know, but I can't see "Americans", Europeans and Western Ukrainians going to a complete war against a superpower for a peninsula that should have never left Russia, both by population and geopolitical balance.

[Peeperkorn]

Russia will invade and occupy Ukraine tomorrow morning it seems.

What? Did I miss a joke?

[Peeperkorn]

2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine.

I was thinking the same....an Ukraine without Crimea will put an end to the balance of power between the two political groups.

Anyway, after an event like that, probably all the political system will be changed.

[Peeperkorn]

To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%

Source?

[Peeperkorn]

 BBC 22:25:

Poland has invoked Article 4 of Nato's founding treaty, under which consultations can be requested when an ally feels their security is threatened. Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski has said that while the Ukraine crisis is not a direct threat to Poland and that the country is safe, Poland wants to enlist Nato as a tool to work for stabilisation in Ukraine.

[Peeperkorn]

It is pretty clear that Ukraine will not be defended. They will find some "compromise", that will attempt to give Russia full control, without giving it that name.

You forget that there are quite a few people that don't want to be a Russian puppy.

[Peeperkorn]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has put trade and investment talks with Russia on hold as a rebuke for Russia's incursion into Ukraine, a United States official said on Monday.

"We have suspended upcoming bilateral trade and investment engagement with the government of Russia that were part of a move toward deeper commercial and trade ties," a spokesman for the Office of the US Trade Representative said.

[Peeperkorn]

...

...

Seriously.

This is not 1938 nor 1939. I'm sick and tired of that extremely hyperbolic analogy, as I can hear it every day from my native nutjobs.

We live in the atomic age. That's why there never was a direct conflict between the West and the East. There were numerous crises, but come on, Ukraine, when compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis or Berlin standoff, is a storm in a teacup.

Russia is not going to attack NATO territory, NATO is not going to attack Russia. You may want this, but it ain't happening.

Agree.

Putin is no Hitler, he doesn't look for a lebensraum to conquer.

Disagree. Russia thinks that it has a certain influence sphere.

One part of it comes from legacy of the ultra expansionist Russian Empire (let's call it traditional: Moscow as the Third Rome, Champion of Slavic nations, protectors of the land of the Rus and Orthodox world).

Other part is pragmatic-geopolitical: control over the Caucasus, control over Central Asia (Eurasia hypothesis), necessity of warm ports like Sevastopol and Vladivostok, to not allow military powers like NATO near them, etc.

--

We don't live in 1948 or 1962, true. But we don't live in the 90s either. Unexpected things could happen.

I think that the message of Putin is that: "Inside my sphere, I will do whatever I need or whatever I want to protect my national interest".

[Peeperkorn]

Interesting piece on Eurasianism and Aleksandr Dugin, even though the source is far from great.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/372353/eurasianist-threat-robert-zubrinnteresting piece on Eurasianism and it's main proponent, Aleksandr Dugin:

Eurasianism (probably one of the first geopolitical thesis in International Relations theory) had a comeback in the later 90s. Even the far-right and now pro-Putin Liberal Democratic Party (I think it's called that way) supports it.