Of the 19 most educated seats in Australia (based on those where 55% or more, compared to 47% nationwide, have a 'Certificate III' plus skilled worker qualification), the Liberals won 11 in 2019 and just 2 this time. Labor gained two from the Coalition while losing Griffith, all the Green gains and all the Independent gains except for Mackellar happened in this group. It's a pretty dramatic shift to see and Australia really is in line with the rest of the world with higher educated voters now being unfriendly to the right. The two seats left are Berowra and Bradfield, which they held on 60% and 54% respectively. Bradfield did have a teal challenge but must not have been targeted much. Berowra wouldn't be safe either, since seats like Curtin that were 64% Liberal in 2019 were lost. This small group of seats is nearly half of the Liberals losses. The Liberals probably can eventually win without them, but that would be pretty difficult for them in the next election.
I'm wondering if the Labour will get their own group of indy challengers next time, given the results in Fowler some safe labour seats might be vunerable to them.
Can you explain which Labor seats exactly would be vulnerable based on the results in Fowler and why?
Yeah, Fowler is one of a kind and I would hope that Labor learn the lessons there.
I could see some of those Western Melbourne seats look interesting if Andrews remains in power in 2025 though - I could see him getting toxic fast and it really harming Labor amongst a certain kind of working-class voter.
