Australia 2022 Election

[morgieb]

WA now:

O'Connor - a safe seat (though the seat isn't quite as safe as it was when it was purely based on the Wheatbelt). In theory it could be vulnerable to a Nationals surge, but their candidate was thrown out on S44 concerns.....

Forrest - another safe seat. Labor have done very well in the Bunbury area in recent state elections so maybe there'll be a swing there, but I can't imagine it being enough to win the seat.

Curtin - though there was a large swing here in 2019, I think a lot of that had to do with Julie Bishop's personal vote disappearing. Still Hammond strikes me as too right-wing for the seat....and demographically it's very similar to the seats that are under threat from the Teals. Indeed, a very strong in Kate Chaney is running here. In a boilover, I'll tip Chaney to win in an upset.

Durack - another safe Liberal rural seat. Given the Nationals got less than 10% here in 2019, I can't see them offering much of a threat even though their candidate is quite strong.

Moore - interesting area. Seems to combine classic blue-ribbon territory with areas that are more akin to marginals. Still even the marginal territory was close in 2017 (obviously NOT 2021) despite that being a very big win for state Labor, so the best case scenario is probably the seat moving into marginal territory.

Canning - another interesting seat, combining the swingy city of Mandurah with some generally Liberal-leaning exurban territory. The latter I think will be enough for the Liberals to hang on, though I do expect a significant swing here.

Tangney - boundary changes have pushed the margin below 10%, but the problem is that the core of the seat is (barring 2021-style climates) very much blue-ribbon territory, only slightly less so than Curtin. Should be a Liberal hold, then.

Hasluck - the first seat in WA that is a genuine marginal. And a significant chunk of the seat (especially the Ellenbrook area, plus Midland to a lesser extent) is very much swing territory. Working in the Liberals favour is that Ken Wyatt seems a very popular local MP and the Labor candidate isn't strong....I guess the Liberals narrowly hang on.

Pearce - Christian Porter's old seat....so you'd expect the baseball bats to be out big time here. Thanks to redistributions and new suburban developments the seat isn't a semi-rural one anymore, rather being based on the swingy outer suburbs of Perth. I expect Labor will pick this up.

Swan - another interesting seat, in that the seat would probably be moderately safe for Labor barring the solidly Liberal South Perth area. So that could maybe keep the swing down? Still, given the way WA is apparently behaving this looks far too marginal for the Liberals to hold especially given the absence of a sitting MP here. If Labor can't win this seat the Liberals are likely getting reelected with an increased majority.

Cowan - classic marginal. Interestingly the sitting Liberal MP for Stirling is running here, and there were apparently some hopes from the Liberals that this might be close? But looking at the area this should deliver one of the strongest pro-Labor swings nationwide.

Perth - boundary changes have made the seat more marginal, but the area seems very low-swinging based on previous election results and I'll be stunned if there's anything a pro-Liberal swing in WA. Labor to hold.

Burt - this seat actually had a Liberal majority upon creation, which shows how much Labor had underperformed in WA in 2010 and 2013. Seat looks basically safe as things stand.

Brand - safe for Labor. The swing will be interesting given how massive the majorities (even by the standards of 2021) are for state Labor in the area.

Fremantle - another safe Labor seat. In theory the Fremantle area could deliver a very strong Greens vote and is probably the most left-wing area in WA, but more traditionally suburban areas such as Coogee and Cockburn makes it hard for the Greens to get anywhere near close to finishing in the Top 2.

TL;DR - Labor gain two seats (Swan, Pearce) and Kate Chaney wins Curtin.

[morgieb]

WA now:

Thanks for doing these seat by seat explainers, they are really interesting. I’ve noticed that you expect non-UNS for different states which has previously been a feature of Australian elections. Generally speaking what are the basis for you expecting different states to swing different ways? Is there credible state level polling, is it the popularity/unpopularity (measured in polls?) of state governments, the appeals the federal party are making, or perhaps even something else?

A variety of different things - certainly the state Labor government in WA is extremely popular (even if that is fading slightly) and I think that will make a massive boost for Labor's hopes there (which polling has borne out). I also think the Coalition has made more of a working-class kind of appeal to normal which is encouraging a backlash in middle-class areas. Meanwhile the conventional wisdom and polling suggests that in Queensland Labor are making gains but perhaps not quite enough to change the election, while in Victoria at least Labor are increasingly unpopular in working-class areas.

Thanks for the warm wishes!

[morgieb]

Burt - this seat actually had a Liberal majority upon creation, which shows how much Labor had underperformed in WA in 2010 and 2013. Seat looks basically safe as things stand.

It's more a reflection of the massive personal vote Don Randall built up in Armadale over a decade and a half. Armadale saw a massive reversion to the mean in the 2015 by-election that was reflected in the newly drawn Burt.

Yeah, that's true as well and why I thought it would flip upon creation.

[morgieb]

So Canberra is basically Aussie DC?

Yes. There are a couple of big differences though - one is that Canberra is far whiter than DC (I think the English-speaking white population of Canberra is like 90%), and the DC metro is way larger (the DC metro in the US is roughly the size of Sydney/Melbourne, whereas Canberra only has a population of about 400k)

[morgieb]

Polling data today has been....concerning:

Morgan: 53-47 (Kevin Bonham's calculations suggest 54-46); Labor 34, Coalition 34, Greens 13, One Nation 4, UAP 1, Others 14. Apparently 56-44 on respondent preferences. That should indicate a comfortable Labor win but Morgan is notoriously ALP-friendly which worries me if their primary vote is in the mid-30's.

Resolve: 52-48 (51-49 on respodnent preferences); Coalition 34, Labor 31, Greens 14, One Nation 6, UAP 4, Others 10. Those figures look kind of bad, especially given that undecideds/3P voters have a significant tendency to choose the Coalition if they move off the fence. On those figures a Labor government would be expected....but a minority government likely and those figures remind me a lot of Ipsos's in 2019.....

Add that Morrison produced a buzz-friendly policy in allowing people to use their super for buying a house (most economists have slammed it but I get the feeling especially with those suspectible to BS would see it as "Liberals are making it easier to buy your own home with your money, Labor expect the government to own part of it") and that Albanese apparently had a difficult press conference and I'm getting really concerned that this is 2019 redux.

[morgieb]

I mean, if the ALP manage to blow this one they might as well pack up and go home.

Yeah, that would be a major bit of soul searching. They had most things going for them - high inflation, a not super well-regarded COVID response, climate change coming true, disliked PM. And they weren't victims to a scare campaign. The obvious answer is that Albanese ran a crap campaign and people can get bought off.

I think if Labor learn the right lessons (don't coronate a leader, a small target needs an effective overarching message) they could absolutely run up the score in 2025 as the issues that have plagued the current government will only get worse. But there is little reason to think that they will.

[morgieb]

Are their any hotly contested seats that have significant Chinese-Australian votes?

Chisholm, Reid and Banks (all-Liberal held) all have sizeable Chinese-Australian populations. The member for Banks is understood to have done a lot of work building connections with the Chinese community, so his seat is not considered as likely to fall as the other two.

Parramatta also has a number of Chinese-Australians, but also has Lebanese and Indian sections. It’s a Labor marginal, but polling has suggested that the Liberals will struggle to take it.

There's also Bennelong with a significant Chinese-Australian population and is hotly contested.

[morgieb]

To SA:

Barker - this is the only seat in South Australia that as things currently stand I would feel confident in saying that is safe Liberal. It's the most right-wing part of South Australia and the seat lacks a good independent.

Grey - on paper a safe seat, but this one has a strong Independent challenge in Liz Habermann. It's a tough seat for an Independent to win, but she has the advantage of coming from the most right-wing part of the seat - she can certainly rely upon the Iron Triangle to give her a boost, for example. It's clear that the Liberals are not comfortable here. I would expect like in 2016 the Liberals would just about hang on, but man it's close.

Sturt - another seat that's looking surprisingly tight. Although the majority is large and Stevens has a new personal vote, this one is viewed as being in play. It's a pretty blue-ribbon seat which means that Morrison is probably more on the nose here than in other seats....I guess Liberals narrowly hold.

Boothby - the only seat in South Australia that can truly be considered marginal. The sitting MP is retiring, and the swing sounds like it's on in South Australia. I think this should flip.

Hindmarsh - with the seat now containing the ultra-Labor Port Adelaide area, this is a safe seat.

Adelaide - another seat that's shifted from marginality to safety thanks to the 2017 redistribution. Though of course this seat had stopped being truly marginal after 2007.

Makin - crazy to think that this seat was Liberal-held as recently as 2004. Were Zappia to retire the margin might get interesting as the seat still contains territory that is quite marginal at state level, but for 2022 it's clearly safe Labor.

Kingston - not only was this Liberal-held as recently as 2004, it was still a marginal seat in 2007. It's a bit of an odd one as the area is quite working-class so it being a safe seat is more appropriate than being a swing one, but it shows how SA Labor's hopes have changed since the 90's.

Spence - this is basically a recreated version of the old Bonython. Although the seat is somewhat less urban than that one, it's still a very safe Labor seat.

Mayo - Rebekha Sharkie's seat. This was actually a bit closer than I would've expected in 2019, though I guess the Liberals gave it a huge crack with a Downer (Alex of course being the local MP for many years) as their candidate. Presumably she'll retain this with ease.

So Labor gain one seat (Boothby).

[morgieb]

And Sharkie to hold Mayo presumably?

First time I've missed one! Probably Sharkie being a de facto Indie influences things, but I didn't miss Katter/Bandt/Haines/Steggall....

Yeah, I suspect she'll easily hold Mayo.

[morgieb]

Tasmania + the Territories to wrap up my 151 seat journey:

Braddon - always a very marginal seat, and always a pretty volatile one which makes predictions tough to call. Sitting member not all that special but it's also a rural seat so maybe the Morrison hatred will be muted? Still, he seems more bullish about outer suburban electorates than regional ones. Maybe a Labor gain? Very close either way though.

Bass - on paper extremely vulnerable, but Archer has done a good job of defining herself as a maverick and that can be appreciated in Tasmania. Still, I think this looks too marginal for the Liberals to hold on to. A wildcard could be Lambie preferences, who seems to be backing Labor in most seats but the Liberals here. Is there a chance that if Archer holds on against the grain she defects?

Solomon - the urban part of the Northern Territory, containing the cities of Darwin and Palmerston. Currently Labor held but has been marginal in the past. The NT is isolated enough that it could do something odd even as the country zooms left. Still the safest tip is a Labor hold.

Lyons - on paper, this doesn't look too competitive. But the swing here was influenced by the Liberal candidate in 2019 being disendorsed by the party and there does appear to be optimism here from the Liberals. Still, it would be a shock if it flipped.

Linigari - the rural Northern Territory seat. Warren Snowden's old seat, and I think most people agree that he had a massive personal vote. So with him gone this could do odd things. Will still predict a Labor hold as the candidate seems stronger and a 6% swing seems tough in this climate.

Bean - the most right-wing part of Canberra, strictly relative as that is. Like all Canberra seats, the seat is solidly Labor.

Fenner - the seat is slightly more marginal than the old one following the addition of a third seat, but this is still rock-solid Labor territory.

Franklin - this was shockingly marginal in 2007, I think that was because of preselection dramas and the retirement of a popular sitting MP. Otherwise, this is a safe Labor seat.

Canberra - the safest Labor seat in Canberra on paper. In practice, the Greens could ask a few questions - they weren't too far behind the Liberals here and Labor weren't that close to 50% - but I don't think Liberal preferences will flow strongly enough to make things that close. Might be one to watch in the future, perhaps.

Clark - Andrew Wilkie's seat, and he has it for as long as he wants. Were he to retire the seat could get very interesting, with a strong divide between the working-class north and the more middle-class south giving the potential to cause a significant battle between Labor and the Greens (or perhaps a left-ish Independent).

So Labor gain two seats (Bass and Braddon).

Full summary to come after the footy/Newspoll.

[morgieb]

Ah, turns out Newspoll was released at 7:30 rather than 9:30 today.

And it's 53/47.

Herding worries me a bit (numbers seem nearly identical to Ipsos) but absent something really freakish I can't see how the Liberals win.

[morgieb]

So:

Labor: 80 seats (+11) (gain Reid, Robertson, Bennelong, Chisholm, Brisbane, Longman, Boothby, Pearce, Swan, Bass, Braddon)
Coalition: 59 seats (-17) (lose Reid, Robertson, Bennelong, Wentworth, Chisholm, Nicholls, Higgins, Goldstein, Brisbane, Longman, Ryan, Pearce, Swan, Curtin, Boothby, Bass, Braddon)
Crossbench: 12 seats (+5) (3 Green (Melbourne, Higgins, Ryan), 1 CA, 1 KAP, 7 Independents (Warringah, Wentworth, Goldstein, Nicholls, Curtin, Indi, Clark))

I've changed my mind on Robertson and Bennelong thanks to the new polls.

Still a bit of uncertainty in my mind, I've probably been a bit too bullish on the crossbench in particular. Minority government might be possible but I think something would need to be really strange for the Tories to maintain their majority.

[morgieb]

And my Senate predictions:

NSW: 2 COAL, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 ON

The first five are obvious. I think the Coalition vote has dropped enough for One Nation to win a seat here (it was close between the two in 2019), although it'll be close.

VIC: 2 COAL, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 UAP

Again clear cut first five. I think the UAP vote is stronger in Victoria than other states (I think a side effect of One Nation's natural weakness here), so they win seat #6, but I could see the 3rd Coalition or Derryn Hinch as well. Hell Labor #3 might not be completely out of it if they poll well enough.

QLD: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 ON

I feel confident in 2 LNP, 1 ALP and 1 Green. Pauline's personal vote I think will be high enough for her to win (unfortunately), but Clive and Campbell Newman (the LDP candidate) will challenge. Hell I could see them challenging the 2nd Labor candidate too, but I think Labor's hopes in Queensland have improved enough to get a 3-3 result.

SA: 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, Nick Xenophon

First five are obvious. How much support Nick Xenophon retains is a genuine question especially as he hasn't campaigned much, but I think it might just be enough to win against a crowded field. One Nation or the 3rd Liberal probably the favourites otherwise.

WA: 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN

Most predictable one barring the NT. Maybe One Nation might push against the 3rd Liberal.

TAS: 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 JLN

Hard to say - I think the Liberal vote will be too low for them to win the 6th seat, but who else could win it? I don't think there's enough left support to help the ALP, and I don't think One Nation are strong enough to get seat #6. How the JLN vote holds up without Lambie will be interesting, but it does sound like she's got decent infrastructure in Tasmania for her parties vote to hold up regardless, and I think she'll get a good run with preferences as well.

ACT: 1 ALP, David Pocock

I'm risking getting burnt here, but it certainly seems like Pocock has ran a great campaign that can appeal to otherwise Liberal-leaning voters (as well as his profile), and all reports suggest that Seselja's in trouble. Will be close though.

NT: 1 ALP, 1 CLP

Obviously.

[morgieb]

Ah, turns out Newspoll was released at 7:30 rather than 9:30 today.

And it's 53/47.

Herding worries me a bit (numbers seem nearly identical to Ipsos) but absent something really freakish I can't see how the Liberals win.

It shouldn't be presumed that poll herding automatically understates the right, of course.

Yes, this is correct. But other than 1993, I don't think a single federal election has overestimated the Tories. And given what happened last time, you can understand why people are concerned.

[morgieb]

On a uniform swing Labor needs 51.8% to win a majority. So it is a very close one, doing slightly worse than the polling and ending up on 51% likely won't be good enough for a majority. Scott Morrison obviously is quite far from winning another majority of his own.

Couldn't the Libs theoretically retain a majority government on, like, 48-52 if the increase in ALP support is concentrated enough in the inner cities? Granted, I'm pretty sure that'd require everything going right for them (i.e., a disastrous polling failure worse than 2019's resulting in the largest city/suburban split in Australian history) to work, but still, it doesn't seem like an impossibility, esp. in the event that the expected swings in some seats don't materialize & the indy surge falls flat.

They're notionally on 76 seats at the moment, and would be under that with a 0.4% uniform swing. I guess they could get lucky in the ultra marginals but they just can't afford a 3-4% swing. Maybe if they can bring the 2PP to a tie, but it's just hard to see. Plus, having a swing concentrated in urban areas would be good for the independents. While some of those seats are relatively safe, seats like Wentworth and then Kooyong are already within striking distance.

Yeah I know in 1998 Howard hung on despite losing the 2PP 51-49, but that was with a much bigger majority than Scotty has.

And I feel like the 2PP will be more than that....I hope so, anyway.

[morgieb]

So apparently the Liberals think the 2PP is 53-47 their way.....

Although if the Libs thought they would win I don't think they'd be doing the whole "boat intercepted" story.....

[morgieb]

Damn eh. What a night.

Looks like the bagged Resolve poll was actually pretty accurate in the end. All hail our new kings. But for the most part the polls look reasonably accurate compared to 2019.

Two things won the election:

* That WA swing. I thought the tide was going out for Labor there. I thought they'd do well, but merely solidly and win two seats. Instead, double digit swings everywhere, 4 Liberal seats lost to Labor, probably one seat lost to a Teal and one seat in doubt. And it looks like being a 3 Labor-2 Liberal-1 Green result in the Senate as things stand. It ended up being Labor's best state, which I'm not sure has ever happened before (the only time that it would've been even close was 1983).

* The Teal movement. I was a little bit more bullish about them than most here, but they've flipped at least 5 and quite probably 6 blue-ribbon seats (to go with the one they've already won). There's more too - Higgins went to Labor, Ryan to the Greens, Brisbane to one of those two. With most of the big money seats not voting Liberal, that is a massive concern in the short-term and it's going to be a massive headache unless they can convince core Labor voters to come to the Liberal camp. Although the Fowler result suggests another alternative....

Some more posts to come later today.

[morgieb]

Can one of our ALP voting Aussies tell us how this result compares to their expectations?

Secondly, are we looking at an ALP majority?

I think the answer is probably, but postals skew Coalition enough that if enough goes wrong they may fall just short. Right now I think we're looking at a high 70's result - so not far off my predictions.

As for my expectations, probably similar when taken nationwide, but I admit that the verocity of the WA swing and the Teal movement surprised me.

Of course I didn't give my first preference to the ALP this election so.....

[morgieb]

I will have a look at what seats went which way now:

Riverina - safe seat for the Nationals. Theoretically it could be viable turf for an Independent as the seat is pretty homogenous and McCormack isn't the most beloved politician, but no good one is running so....

Yep, though McCormack did fall below 50% on primary votes which says a lot.

Cook - alas, Scotty is safe here. The margin might be fun to watch as Morrison is far less popular now than what he was in 2019 and the margin seems kind of inflated (before 2013 it was generally a 60%-ish kind of seat), but yeah this won't be close.

A fairly large swing, but obviously nowhere near enough to endanger him.

Mitchell - this is another very safe seat for the Libs. It's not even a socially liberal kind of seat (quite the opposite) so I can't imagine any threat from the Teals. Hawke did have a bit of preselection trouble but that won't matter.

Pretty vicious swing, which was a bit of a surprise, but still safe.

Parkes - if a Shooters candidate ran, this could be semi-interesting (they did very well in the area in the 2019 state election), but as it is it won't be, despite Broken Hill.

Yep.

Bradfield - this was historically the Liberal's safest seat. It's not right now but it's still very safe.....but like most North Shore seats there is a progressive strain here that could make it semi-interesting for an Independent. With that said, it doesn't seem like Boele has had the same sort of attention as Tink, let alone Spender. So while I could see the margin be interesting, this shouldn't be competitive.

I'd expect Fletcher to just about hang on especially as the post-count typically isn't Independent-friendly, but wow this was close. The Teal movement is for real.

Berowra - another safe Liberal seat in the North Shore, and this one doesn't even have an Independent of note. Safe Liberal.

A Teal really should've run here. As it was there was a significant primate vote swing, but not enough to endanger the seat.

Lyne - another seat where the margin seems a tad inflated, but is still a safe seat for the Nationals unless a big name Independent runs, which doesn't seem to be happening.

Not even much of a deflation of the margin here.

New England - another safe Nationals seat unless there's a good Independent, no matter how much of an embarrassment Barnaby seems to be.

Yep....

Calare - this seat is interesting as it used to be a genuine marginal (Labor held it in the Hawke/Keating years for example) and has some post-industrial terrority (Lithgow and surrounds) that should give Labor at least some kind of base. Yet in recent times it's been a safe seat and Lithgow has turned a long way right. And the rest of the seat is rock-solid National territory. Will be a Nationals hold.

There was a decent Independent vote here, but given Gee got a swing towards him on primary votes.....

Mackellar - now we get to the seats that might legitimately be a threat to the Teals. While Scamps probably isn't the most high-profile of them, she does seem to be getting her name out there. And Falinski isn't the most beloved candidate. Is there enough discontent for him to lose? Perhaps not, but it's certainly a seat to watch.

Talk about a seat to watch all right! If you wanted evidence of how much trouble the Liberals are in their old heartlands, this seat flipping is well and truly up there.

Hume - while Taylor isn't exactly a beloved incumbent, the seat should be safe enough for him to hold. Theoretically it could be vulnerable to an Independent but the seat seems a bit too disparate for one to win - it has traditional Coalition territory in the Southern Highlands, a working-class(ish) city in Goulburn and outer suburban territory around Camden and Narellan. Word on the street is that Ackery is running hard in the rural areas but hasn't made much inroads in the suburban part of seat.

An OK performance from Ackery, but she couldn't get to second which may have made the seat interesting. Taylor did get a decent swing against him but like many swings, it was pretty harmless for him.

Farrer - given Ley won a majority of the primary vote in 2019 despite strong Independent opposition, I can't see her losing without one. And on a Coalition/Labor basis, this is one of the safest seats in the country.

Yep.

Hughes - this is Craig Kelly's seat. He of course quit the Coalition due to the party finally having enough of his anti-vaxxer nonsense. This is usually a safe Liberal seat (now anyways, it used to be a safe Labor seat funnily enough) but the whole drama about finding a new candidate has to bite, and it seems that whille Jenny Ware (the new Liberal candidate) is a decent fit for the seat and does have branch support, she's still struggling to find the right kind of funds to compete with a strong local Independent in Georgia Steele. I feel like a seat  like this feels more ideologically in line with the modern Liberal party compared to say Wentworth, but it sounds like the Liberals will have the fight of their life on their hands. Forced to call, I still expect the Liberals to hold.

Happily Kelly massively bombed. Steele did OK but as I suspected, the area wasn't Teal friendly enough for her to have enough of base, and in the end she couldn't pass Labor.

Page - on paper this shouldn't be competitive, but the seat was a long-time marginal before a massive swing in 2019. While the massive swing does suggest that Hogan has a strong personal vote, I do wonder what the floods will mean in this seat as it was the main epicentre for the floods and Morrison's handling of it was not well regarded. Perhaps not a lot but I'd expect a fairly significant correction. This seat also has a decent Independent running, though I'm not sure how strong she is.

Now on a margin of 13%, which is higher than a lot of seats that was historically safe. It's safe to say that Kevin Hogan has found the secret sauce for Coalition candidates.

North Sydney - similar to Mackellar but the seat is even more inner city and the margin smaller so the maths is easier for Tink. I think Zimmerman might just about hold on, but he is in deep trouble and this will be a massive fight.

I ummed and aahhhed on this seat for a long time. Because I thought I was overestimating the Teals a bit much and I had noticed a surge for support in Renshaw, I though Zimmerman might've just been able to hang on. Instead, his primary vote was low enough that he likely would've lost to Labor regardless. Tink finishing second just sealed the deal.

Bennelong - while the margin is biggish, there's a lot riding against the Liberals here. Firstly, there's the problems that the Liberals that are having in urban electorates. Secondly, the Chinese population here is massive and it seems like they're ripe for a massive swing vis a vis 2019. Thirdly, the sitting MP is retiring, who seemed to have at least some popular appeal. The new Liberal candidate seems rather weak and has come out as opposing vaccine mandates, which would bite in a highly-educated and diverse electorate. And Labor preselected the local mayor. For now, a very narrow Liberal hold but this has significant upset potential.

Once it was clear the polls weren't budging I flipped this to Labor. Looks extremely close, we'll wait and see what the prepolls say but given that the prepolls aren't skewing Coalition anywhere near as much as they used to things look good for Labor here.

Cowper - in theory a safe seat (the 2000's version was semi-marginal but the boundaries are more National-leaning now with the addition of Port Macquarie) and Oakeshott isn't running this time. But there's a new Independent in Caz Heise who has genuine local appeal that should give the Nats a scare. How big of a one I'm not sure, especially because Conaghan should get a sophmore surge. But it's another headache for the Coalition.

A massive scare, it turns out. Indeed, on current figures I think Conaghan probably loses. Late votes I think will just about bail him out, but in a year where a lot of the rural Indies underperformed Heise did really well to finish second in a seat which can be difficult for an Independent to campaign in.

Banks - historically Labor held, this seat eventually moved to the Coalition's hands thanks to a double whammy of demographic change around the Georges River (especially around Panania/Revesby) and the rightwards shift of the Chinese vote. It also feels like Coleman has worked the electorate well. While the second factor should see a rebound for Labor, the margin seems big enough and the electorate suburban enough that I don't see this one flipping back.

Slight swing back to Labor, but not enough to flip the seat. Will be interesting to see the booth results here as to whether it was a case of Coleman maintaining good personal appeal amongst Chinese voters or the Revesby area sticking Liberal thanks to Morrison's campaign.

Lindsay - one to watch, there were some significant local factors that depressed the Labor vote here, but it's also much more of a Morrison Lib demographic than a Turnbull Lib one so it likely would've flipped anyway. McIntosh should get a sophmore surge which I think should be enough of a buffer against the general swing and a better local situation for the ALP, but it will still be close. One factor to watch will be the populist right vote, which is probably a bigger factor in this seat than others in Sydney.

Is this gone for good? Swung Liberal against the grain. Still, while a bit of good news for Liberals, the swing wasn't exactly big and it's still not completely bulletproof against a potential Albo sophmore surge (which hasn't happened at the federal level but has been a common feature at the state level).

Robertson - another classic marginal. Labor candidate seems quite strong, incumbent doesn't seem too remarkable either way. I guess Liberals might just hang on because this feels like a Morrison friendly area, but it's on a knives edge.

Another seat I flipped at the last minute. What was interesting here was that the swing in similar areas was pretty muted at best, but here it was quite a big one and allowed Labor to flip the seat. This seat is always going to go with whoever wins government, yeah?

Reid - it's worth noting that this seat has little in the common with the one that was an ultra safe one for Labor for 80 years, rather it's basically the old Lowe. An interesting balance between the gentrified harbour suburbs, blue ribbon Strathfield and Labor-leaning minority areas in Burwood. However, much of the Liberal electorate here is a fairly inner city one and it's the sort of area that Morrison feels quite on the nose. While Fiona Martin can expect a sophmore surge and has done well to distant herself from some of the more toxic elements of the Liberal brand, it likely won't be enough.

Hard to know what impact the racist interview Martin gave had here, but it certainly didn't help. Regardless, an easy win for Labor and this seat might be returning to relative safety that it had throughout the 90's and 2000's.

Wentworth - thank god Kerryn Phelps isn't running again, else she'd get smashed. Although this electorate has some of the most expensive suburbs in the entire country there are large chunks of the seat that is basically the CBD....or at least more of a progressive vibe (Bondi). Spender also seems better connected than Phelps and the Libs are more hated now than they were in 2019. While the harbour booths will keep it close and Sharma's done a decent job of making himself look moderate, I think he goes down.

Spender actually won the primary vote here. Though I suspect this changes because of the rich Jewish vote (who usually vote prepoll for religious reasons), this was an easy win for Spender and a seat I think the Libs are gonna have massive troubles to win back.

[morgieb]

And now, the Labor (or non-major) held seats in New South Wales:

Macquarie - a very interesting seat in that it combines a safe Liberal seat (the Hawkesbury River towns/exurbs) with a safe Labor one (the Blue Mountains), along with a bit of marginal territory in the Lower Mountains. This of course makes it a very close seat that Labor have held thanks to an excellent local MP for the Mountains. For this reason I don't think it'll swing all that much, but I do think Templeman should hang on. Especially as all the floods in the north of the seat could see a swing against the Libs there.

This actually had quite a big swing - now the seat looks safe-ish. It might not be long-term, but absent a meltdown in 2025 this probably is Labor's for a while.

Eden-Monaro - everyone's favourite bellweather up until 2016, it has stayed Labor thanks to an excellent candidate in Mike Kelly. When he retired it looked like a massive headache for Labor but picking the local mayor from a bushfire affected region was enough to hang on. Will be interesting to see how she's worked the seat since then. Again, I expect it to be close but I think Labor hang on. Especially given what happened in the area in the recent by-elections.

If anything an even more remarkable swing than Macquarie. This has turned into a safe seat basically overnight.

Dobell - classic marginal. It's usually a Labor-leaning seat, but it's not exactly so safe that Labor can ignore it. With the way 2022 is likely to behave I don't expect this to be that interesting, but the margin should still be tight and I could see an upset if the election mood changes.

Not a tight margin. It's interesting that the Central Coast did move quite strongly to Labor when the Coalition did well in other working-class suburban areas. Now it has a safer margin than three of the Hunter Valley seats.

Gilmore - the only seat to go Coalition -> Labor in 2019 when taking into account redistribution factors. So that makes it an interesting seat to start with. This probably only flipped because the Libs made the mistake of picking Warren Mundine. This time they preselected a popular state MP in Andrew Constance. However it's worth noting Constance's state seat doesn't have that much in common with this federal seat and Phillips has apparently worked the seat well. Constance also had one of the more difficult portfolio's in state politics where his legacy isn't all that glowing. Add that the margin isn't insignificant especially given that 2022 is likely to see a swing back to Labor and I think Phillips hangs on. I could see a counterswing though.

So it does seem like Constance had strong personal appeal. First it looked like he was going to romp it in, then it looked like he was likely to fall short, now it's looking close. If I had to pick a winner at this point it might be Constance, but this will take a while to decide.

Greenway - an interestingly balanced seat between the Labor-friendly south around Blacktown and new rich suburbs up north which are swingier. The north is growing and becoming more Liberal-friendly which doesn't help Labor. Overall I expect a Labor hold though if the working-class areas see a major party revolt which has been hinted at this is worth watching.

This might be the most wild result of the election. This was a genuinely marginal seat. Labor were facing a backlash in working-class suburbs. Population growth had favoured the Liberals. Yet here we saw a double digit swing to Labor, and the margin here is Labor's biggest since 1993, when the north of the seat was far less developed. Another seat where I think it's gonna take some time for it to come back.

Hunter - for the first time in forever this became a swing seat after a massive swing thanks to coal policy. Labor MP now retiring and the coal politics haven't changed. Still, a 3% swing isn't exactly easy when the country is swinging 3% the other way....and it's worth noting that the tightness of the election had a lot to do with ONP preferences, and the previous One Nation candidate was quite strong - he is now running as an Independent. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if this is an against the grain gain even as Labor win 90 seats or this returns to safety. I guess I'll tip a Labor hold as I don't think Central Queensland would be behaving like it allegedly is if coal was going to ruin Labor in working-class areas.

Repacholi does win the seat, but there wasn't much of a swing here so it's tough to say that Labor have reversed their long-term decline here. I'm not sure the next term is going to be fun for him.

Parramatta - marginal seat. Labor's chances not helped by the sitting MP retiring, parachuting a candidate that isn't a local and an ex-Labor mayor running on a quasi-populist message. However, it's a fairly polarised seat which probably inhibits any potential swing and it's also possible that the way the Libs went about the last lockdown will breed resentment amongst voters they have to win. Given that the margin for this seat isn't that tight, a probable Labor hold though the swing will likely be small (or the other way).

Small swing, but not exactly atypical of the area. It's interesting to compare Charlton's start to say Keneally's. Still remains a key seat but the next redistribution will be interesting.

Richmond - unless this area has a massive trend towards anti-vax style parties (which I guess is possible given that the seat is full of hippies), this won't vote National. The question is whether the Greens could pick it up. The swing for the Greens to win it is quite large (like around 6%) so I'm skeptical. Might be interesting if major party votes really tank, though.

The Greens managed to come first in what was a fractured field. However, the Nats did poorly enough that they finished 3rd, and it looks like Elliot will get enough preferences for her to hold on. Still not a comfortable seat for Labor long-term, though.

Shortland - another Hunter area seat that suddenly became semi-marginal out of nowhere, though the seat has had a longer-term Liberal trend. It's not really a coal electorate so I'm not convinced there's enough movement left, though the margin will be interesting to watch.

Similar result to Hunter, a slight swing back but the seat still remains an issue long-term.

Paterson - interesting one - this used to be a Liberal-leaning seat but the addition of Kurri Kurri and surrounds and the removal of the Mid-North Coast has made this a generally Labor-leaning one. Unlike Hunter Labor's vote in its industrial heartlands was still rather strong so there might be more room for a swing, but I'm dubious on Labor losing this one.

As above, though this one actually did have a pro-Liberal swing, perhaps because their candidate was apparently rather strong.

Werriwa - this seat has become a lot more marginal in recent years, which I think is linked to the suburbs west of the M7 growing substanially. Still fairly safe regardless. The next redistribution will be interesting to watch though.

Unlike Greenway this saw a slight swing against Labor, which might be showing the political impact of the new developments in the west of the seat. The impact of the next redistribution will be interesting to watch.

McMahon - another seat that seems to have a road as divider between safe Labor areas and more marginal ones. Should be safe for 2022 though it's another seat where the long-term trend might be with the Liberals.

Swung with the national trend, whereas the swing was a bit more muted in most of Western Sydney. If Bowen were to retire this might be interesting in the right year.

Macarthur - on current boundaries this is a fairly safe seat, and you've also got a local MP who seems to have a strong personal vote. Will be interesting to watch after the next redistribution, as the 1993-2013 version was generally a Liberal seat.

Not much of a swing here. Will be worth watching what happens to the seat in 2025.

Kingsford Smith - this was threatening to be close for a while, but trends in inner-city areas has since returned the seat to safety.

And the inner-city trends have given Labor their biggest majority here in a very long time. Seat now looks pretty bulletproof.

Barton - it's interesting that this seat has actually trended quite strongly Liberal when redistributions are taken into account, but I guess the nature of the Chinese vote has influenced that and I guess McClelland had a decent personal vote. This won't be close in 2022, though.

So much about those trends. Massive swing to put the seat back into ultra-safety.

Whitlam - safe seat, though it is interesting that Wollongong is still very solid for Labor when large chunks of the Hunter has moved right given how similar the core Labor vote has been in the areas.

A slight swing against Labor here, which could be explained by the Liberals rather than the Nationals contesting the seat. Still safe though.

Chifley - the margins (like a lot of the whiter bits of Western Sydney) will be worth watching, but realistically the question is whether Labor get 60% or 70%.

Not much interest in the margin, slight swing towards Labor like most of Western Sydney.

Cunningham - see Whitlam, but this is safer as it does not have a chunk of the Southern Highlands giving the Coalition a small base.

Moved slightly towards Labor as Whitlam moved slightly towards Liberals. Not much change.

Watson - another safe Labor seat in Western Sydney. I guess the populist percentage might be worth watching?

The Greens finished ahead of both the UAP and One Nation, so not even much interest there.

Newcastle - it's interesting that this seat did not swing at all last year when the rest of the Hunter saw very aggressive swings towards the Coalition. I guess the seat being more of an inner-city electorate rather than a coal mining/industrial one (and the presence of a major university) influences that. Obviously a safe Labor seat.

And now you're seeing the effects of the seat differing economically from the rest of the Hunter Valley. Out of seats where Labor and Liberals finished Top 2 this was Labor's safest seat nationwide, and there was also a very large Greens vote (20%).

Fowler - on paper a very safe Labor seat. However the sitting MP is retiring and Labor decided to parachute Kristina Keneally is. Given that she has no links to Liverpool, she's not Vietnamese (which Hayes's anoited successor was and this being such a Vietnamese heavy electorate) and she's quite the immigration hawk, this did not go down well. On a Labor/Liberal basis this wouldn't have been enough....but Dai Le is running as an Independent and she does have a strong local appeal/profile. Is that enough for Keneally to lose? I'm not sure. My guess is that she narrowly hangs on, but with Labor's majority slashed to ribbons.

Ummm, well this is awkward. I think Le's win had more to do with Labor picking an awful candidate for the seat than a sign that Labor could be vulnerable to community Independents in their working-class fifedoms, but this was very very dumb especially given Tu Le would've won this easily.

Blaxland - another ultra-safe Labor seat in Western Sydney, most famous for being the seat of a man with fine cultural tastes and an ultra-sharp wit.

Remains as solid as ever.

Grayndler - Albo's seat....also mine. This is safe but I will be interested in seeing what the margin is. Albanese has moved a fair way right since becoming the Opposition Leader so I could see a few Green-leaning voters who gave Albanese a personal vote moving towards the Greens. That won't be enough to make it interesting, though. But one way or another, in 2025 I could see it being very interesting as the area at the state level is very strongly Green.

Albo's primary vote improved, so the margin wasn't even interesting here. The Liberals vote collapsed hard here, though.

Sydney - as things stand this is a very safe seat for Labor. Were Plibersek to retire the Greens vote would be interesting to watch, but the area feels slightly less left-friendly than Grayndler so I'm not convinced it would doom Labor here.

The Greens did finish second this time around, which I think was down to the Liberal vote collapsing. So that's at least something to build on as time goes on. Still very safe for Plibersek regardless.

Warringah - this was Tony Abbott's seat. He of course lost in 2019 in a landslide after proving too controversial for an electorate that had some progressive leans and finding a strong candidate to run against him. In theory Steggall should've been vulnerable to a Liberal more in tune with the seat, but instead the Libs preselected a far-right culture warrior. So yeah, Steggall's majority will increase.

And increase it did. Cracked the 60% mark on the 2PP result. And the alleged advantages of picking Deves did not come to fruition with no real working-class movement towards the Liberals.

[morgieb]

ABC's called Bennelong for Labor and Menzies and Moore for the Libs.

Bit surprised that Bass and Cowper are still only "likely" Coalition.

I can understand because of preferences they don't want to call Macnamara or Richmond yet, but they have them as "likely" Labor and given that they're winning in primary votes I can't see them falling into 3rd from this stage so I'm comfortable calling them both for Labor.

Labor: 75 (73 called, plus Macnamara and Richmond)
Coalition: 56 (54 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 3
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10

Still in doubt: 5

• Brisbane: Called this one too early. Labor are in 3rd but only 200 votes behind the Greens in 2nd. Either way the Coalition have obviously lost this seat
• Deakin: Labor ahead, but by just 59 votes now and the Liberal's looking better at every update.
• Gilmore: Constance is only about 200 votes ahead but my hunch is that he'll win it from here.
• Lyons: Labor ahead and looking a little healthier.
• Sturt: Liberal has pulled ahead by nearly 1000 votes and I expect this one will be called soon.

So the smart money is probably on Labor scraping a majority at this stage, given that Lyons would get them there and they still stand a decent chance in both Brisbane and Deakin.

I think you might have the Gilmore/Deakin thing the wrong way around. Sukkar's gains on postals have been so extreme that it's getting hard for Labor. Maybe future postals could slow the trend - certainly these seem very right-wing - but I think I'd rather be the Liberals than Labor.

Constance's lead is an illusion - one booth had the 2PP vote the wrong way around. So I think Labor might still be ahead there. The postal count is already quite advanced too so any further gains on postals might not be forthcoming. I wouldn't write Constance off at all but I think that's a toss-up.

Lyons also has a probable 2PP discrepancy so when that's corrected that should be beyond doubt for Labor.

Macnamara is interesting as the Liberals do gain quite a lot on postal votes there thanks to the conservative Jewish population. I think Burns's lead over the Liberals is big enough that it probably won't be run down (especially as he seems to be doing well on early postals) but there remains a world where the votes are close enough that preferences knock Burns to third. But I'd still prefer to be Labor there.

[morgieb]

Nicholls - on paper, this is a very safe Nationals seat. But the sitting MP is retiring which has allowed for a three-cornered contest and there also is a very strong Independent running. Although the impression of Independents attacking safe Coalition seats seems to be an urban one, an under-rated recent factor is that the Nats are under threat in some of their heartlands as well. This looks to be very close and given how many visits Joyce has had to the seat I think the Nats know it. Although I'm slightly weary of seeing another Kevin Mack situation, I think Preistly wins this.

Priestly did well to win 25% of the vote, but that wasn't close to winning the seat, alas. Rural Victoria is still very strongly conservative.

Gippsland - it's crazy to think that this seat was extremely close as recently as the Howard Years on the current boundaries. I guess that shows what's happened in the Latrobe Valley recently. There's probably room for a swing but it seems like Chester has nailed down the seat and this is obviously safe.

So, there was room for a swing. The only problem was that it was in Chester's direction. Given the way the Nationals are likely to behave in recent years, how is he going to fare as one of the only moderates in the party? He could easily go Independent.

Mallee - although population decline means that the seat is no longer the safest in Australia (which it was for a while), this is still a very safe Nationals seat and without a big-name Independent running will remain so. The primary votes in 2019 were very odd but was probably influenced by the sitting MP retiring.

A more normal result here, which meant that this seat saw a swing back to the Nationals and return to being one of the safest seats in the country (though not necessarily in Victoria).

Wannon - another safe rural seat for the Coalition, though this one is Liberal held rather than Nationals held. Alex Dyson ran well here in 2019 so his vote might be one to watch, maybe? Long-term the seat could start to get interesting as the Surf Coast grows and seachanger factors rise but that's probably still another generation away.

Dyson did very well to finish second here and take Tehan to preferences, so the seat might look pretty close for future elections. But looks like he'll fall short.

Aston - on paper, a safe Liberal seat. But Labor came close here in 2010 (and extremely close on the current boundaries) and Tudge has had a lot of problems with an affair and some bullying allegations. I don't think it'll be enough to sink him especially as the area has trended right long-term, but the swing will be interesting to watch and it might be pushed into marginal territory.

It does appear that Tudge's controversies took its toll here, with a pretty massive swing against him to push the seat towards marginal territory. I think you'd want him to leave parliament as soon as possible and get someone without the same kind of baggage to hold what is one of the few Liberal seats in Melbourne.

Goldstein - historically this was as blue-ribbon of a seat as you could get in Melbourne. But the area is quite progressive these days and in 2018 I think Labor would've won the seat assuming state boundaries were extrapolated to federal ones. Tim Wilson is a bit of a controversial incumbent without much personal support and he is now facing a very strong Teal Independent in Zoe Daniel. It's possible that her bubble might've burst too early, but I think as things stand she wins the seat.

Her bubble didn't burst at all. A pretty easy win that was in the end quite unremarkable given what else what happening in similar seats in the election.

Menzies - I think this is probably the most secure seat for the Coalition in urban Melbourne. It's not really a culturally progressive seat akin to some of the other blue-ribbon Melbourne-based seats, and while there's no sitting MP Andrews was a controversial figure so in some ways they may be better off not having him as their MP.

So much for the most secure seat in Melbourne! The Liberals still hung on but it looked extremely close for most of the night and the margin is looking awfully tight. I expect that the margin will start to rise again in future elections, but it says a lot about where the party is going when seats like this aren't even secure.

Monash - again another seat I think should be secure, though like Wannon I could see the long-term trend be interesting as some of the dormitory towns grow and the Bass Coast seems ripe for seachange style voters.

There was a pretty significant swing on the Princes Highway, but not so much in the rest of the seat. Still, the seat is now fairly marginal and it's not the sort of seat I'd want to be defending in a (possible?) landslide year given Broadbent's age and personal vote.

Flinders - interesting one. Historically it's a fairly safe seat but the seat did become semi-close in 2019. There's a fair bit of demographic similarity between this and the Golden Triangle seats and Greg Hunt is retiring which makes things hard for the Libs. An advantage they gained was a leading Independent in Despi O'Connor being caught out on s44 breaches and having to suspend her campaign - without it I think she would've made the seat very close. I'm not sure if it's ready to vote Labor - my guess is that Labor narrowly miss out - but it does have boilover potential especially if Labor are doing very well.

Interestingly the Liberals did rather well here. Certainly not what I expected out of the night. Greg Hunt must've been more toxic than I thought locally.

Kooyong - is Josh Frydenberg the new Michael Portillo? That might be the key question of the night. The area is very blue-ribbon but also quite culturally progressive, and there was already a lot of bleeding in 2019. And he's got the fight of his life against Monique Ryan and this is a seat where Morrison is clearly on the nose. So this will be very close. Forced to call, I think Frydenberg just about hangs on through sheer bile, but this is about as close to a pure toss-up as you can get.

The only thing that wasn't Portillo-ish about the result was expectations. Though I just about stayed solid with Frydenberg predicting him to lose was far from an uncommon prediction. The margin being bigger than Goldstein does surprise me a bit though. But otherwise, this result says a lot about where the Liberals are going, yeah?

La Trobe - it's worth noting that this is no longer the same seat that was a classic marginal for so many years - it swapped Labor-friendly territory in the Dandenong Ranges for the Pakenham area as well as some Liberal voting rural areas. So the seat is a bit safer for the Libs than the old one (even in 07/10 this would've been held fairly comfortably on current boundaries). However it's also worth noting that the population of the seat was much smaller back then than it is now as the Pakenham area has grown, and it's hard to think of a a seat that was more perfectly designed to be a marginal than this. Something like 70% of the seat is experiencing mortgage stress so CoL issues will bite here. I think this will probably remain a Liberal hold, but it remains a seat to watch.

Interestingly this had quite a significant swing towards the Liberals, something that didn't really happen in their other seats. Margin looks pretty safe though future redistributions will do strange things to teh seat.

Deakin - another seat where boundary changes haven't been favourable to Labor, turning the previous marginal into a Liberal-leaning electorate with the marginal Blackburn being swapped with the Liberal-voting Croydon. So on current boundaries Labor wouldn't have won it in 2007 or 2010. It doesn't seem like Labor are making much of an effort to flip this so I don't think it goes, but it should be tight.

Should Labor have put more on a effort in flipping this one? Indeed it looked like Sukkar was gone on the night. Postals might see him survive, but it's going to be very close....uncomfortably so.

Casey - this is basically the Melbourne version of Macquarie at this point combining a treechangery Labor-leaning area (the Dandenongs) with Liberal voting outer suburbs. The balance is more in favour of the Lilydale/Mooroolbark area than the Dandenongs though so that helps the Liberals. However Tony Smith is retiring and the Liberal candidate to replace him doesn't seem particularly strong. The polarised nature of the seat probably helps especially as the northern part of the seat seems Morrison friendly. So close, but no cigar for Labor.

Close but no cigar was about right. There was a swing towards Labor but it wasn't quite consistent enough amongst the whole seat to endanger the Liberals.

Higgins - looks horrifically vulnerable, but there are a couple of factors that might help Allen - she now has the advantage of being the incumbent and has at least tried to differentiate herself from more standard Liberals, while the Labor candidate has made a name for herself for her anti-AstraZeneca campaigning, which could easily smear her as an anti-vaxxer. So it'll come down to party or candidate most likely. There's also the factor of the Greens, who hold the state seat of Prahran and were close to finishing in the Top 2 here last time. Will be close, but I'll tip a Greens gain.

Being "different" from the other Liberals didn't really help anyone other than maybe Bridget Archer, so yeah. Unfortunately the AZ thing didn't rear its head much in the campaign, and unlike other seats most of the swing was from Liberal to Labor (rather than Liberals to Greens or Liberals to Teals) so this was an easy win for Ananda-Rajah.

Chisholm - on paper, this should be gone. But Liu is a very tough campaigner and unlike 2019 Labor's candidate isn't Chinese, so she may have the benefits of an unaffected ethnic vote this time around. Labor have also gone dirty to try and attack her, which is a sign that they think this is very close and it also has the risk of backfiring. All in all, I think the margin is too small for the Libs to hold this....but the swing might be somewhat muted.

So much for a muted swing. Even if Labor were going dirty, it wasn't anywhere the near same extent that the Liberals were racebaiting. The seat now looks pretty safe for Labor, and barring big improvements from the Liberals with the Chinese vote this might be gone for good.

[morgieb]

Does Australia always take so long to count votes? It's been two days since election night and the % counted has barely budged, and there are still 9 seats uncalled. I don't remember that being the case in 2016 or 2019.

Nah that sort of happened in 2016 as well. As Vosem pointed out it took ages to figure out whether Turnbull had won a majority or not.

I think it does usually take time to count postals/absents/etc but whether it matters depends on how close the election or seats were. When there aren’t many close seats there’s few seats left uncalled. This year is extra hard because of COVID and the high non-major vote.

[morgieb]

Corangamite - interesting one. This seat is basically a suburban Geelong one at this point with some seachanger influence. Given the demographics I have a hard time seeing this seat flip but supposedly the Liberals are semi-confident. Their candidate is very well-known in the swingier part of the electorate which might help? But I suspect it will stay Labor.

So....can somone explain why the Liberals were confident here? At least some of the visits the Liberals made in some of their possible gains at least made some sense based on the results (either small swings or swings towards them), here we saw a pretty massive swing that makes the seat safer for Labor than some seats that were hitherto seen as safe Labor seats. This one looks like it might be gone for the Liberals for good.

Dunkley - historically Liberal held, this seat shed a large chunk of Liberal territory before 2019 to become more overtly based on Frankston turning it into a Labor seat. There has been talk that Andrews is on the nose in suburban Melbourne which might cause headaches for Labor given that the seat is still quite marginal. But it doesn't sound like the Libs are too confident here, so I suspect this stays Labor.

The swing was not as big as it was in Corangamite, but I suspect this one would need a Liberal landslide to become interesting again. Looking at the seat demographically though apart from Mount Eliza it voting Liberal was a bit strange anyway, it's not exactly a wealthy area.

McEwen - I think if there is an anti-Andrews backlash in the suburbs, it'll be most keenly felt in the North which seems the most anti-lockdown part of Melbourne. This is the only North/West Melbourne seat that is remotely marginal so it's probably the only seat to watch for that effect, and it does sound like the Liberals are optimistic here. Still, a 5% margin is large....very large when the rest of the country is likely to swing the other way. And the sitting MP is recontesting so there'll be no loss of personal vote to influence a swing here. So  even if it swings Liberal, this should stay Labor.

It did at least swing Liberal, and might be close enough for a potential Liberal gain in 2025 if things pan out badly for the Labor government. But it does appear that the Liberals were a bit too excited about this seat.

Jagajaga - this is a strange seat. Some legitimately inner-city areas, some very working-class areas, some wealthy suburbs. Overall this generally balances out to a safe enough Labor seat. Will stay Labor.

And how! A 6% swing makes this a safer seat than much of Labor's fifedoms in the Western Suburbs. I guess the inner city areas revolted hard against the Liberals.

Macnamara - I remember thinking Labor was doomed here once Danby retired after the 2016 results. Strong performances in inner-city areas in 2019 however helped Labor, and it seems likely that this part of the world will continue to trend Labor medium-term. A complicating factor will be the Greens, who were about 7% behind Labor in 2019. If there is a significant leftie backlash towards Labor it could hit here. But it doesn't seem like the Greens are that optimistic of flipping it, and I think Labor's position against the Greens should be safe enough.

The closest thing the election has given to a proper three-way marginal. Labor has the slight edge on the primary vote though, so unless preferences do odd things here they should be safe enough. Still, it's not a seat that I'd be feeling confident about if I were Labor especially if the AEC finally succeed in swapping the Caulfield area for Prahran....

Isaacs - given the election this should be safe Labor, especially as the Liberal candidate has a few problems with lying about residency. In future elections I could see this being tight as much of the territory is classic marginal territory at the state level, but this doesn't apply to 2022 and will obviously be future election dependent.

Status quo kind of result here. Boring.

Bruce - it's crazy to think how much the seat has changed in the last few years. The historic version combined Dandenong with Glen Waverley, then it became a purely Dandenong seat, now it has the Narre Warren area to go with Dandenong. In this time it's gone from a Labor-leaning seat to a very safe Labor one to a fairly safe Labor one. Unless it keeps moving east this should be Labor-held in the long-term.

Another seat where the vote barely budged from 2019. Though the electorate did deliver some odd swings, especially in the more working-class areas of the seat.

Wills - an interestingly balanced seat between traditional working-class areas in the north of the seat and inner-city progressive areas in the south. This should stay Labor for this election but the margin against the Greens will be interesting to watch, especially as Khalil doesn't seem a great fit for the south of the seat.

Actually swung slightly Labor on the 2PP vote, though I expect the Greens will remain competitive here for years to come.

Bendigo - one under-rated factor in Victoria becoming so much harder for the Coalition to win has been the trend in Victoria's provincial cities. This was for many years a classic marginal that flipped lots of different ways. Now it's basically unwinnable for the Liberals unless it's a landslide year in their favour. Which 2022 won't be.

The margin here is safer than in Gorton and Gellibrand, and the same as Calwell. Even a landslide year won't flip this seat at this point I suspect.

Holt - on paper the margin for Labor here is safe. But Byrne is retiring and he seemed to have a very strong personal vote given that the area at the state level is fairly marginal. This won't be competitive this year, but the margin and swing will be interesting to watch.

There was a slight swing against Labor here, but it wasn't anywhere near enough to threaten the seat and the seat still looks reasonably secure going forward.

Hawke - new seat based on Melbourne's satellite cities (Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh). Margin is safely Labor, and it would've comfortably voted Labor in past elections too so this should be an easy win for Labor. But could there be an above-average anti-Andrews backlash given the lack of a sitting MP?

There was a reasonable swing against Labor here, though again it wasn't anywhere near enough to threaten Labor. It wasn't even that big compared to a few other Western Suburbs seats either!

Ballarat - it's crazy to think that this was won by the Liberals as recently as 1998. Labor have done an excellent job in turning what was previously a marginal seat into safe territory.

The seat just keeps getting safer.

Maribyrnong - Bill Shorten's seat. This seat does have more genuinely marginal territory than is average for Western Melbourne so the margin could be interesting in the right circumstances. But there's no question about who wins this.

The inner-city trends saw this swing Labor even as much of the Western Suburbs swung away from them.

Corio - Geelong was competitive once upon a time, but it has since solidfied for Labor to go with the working-class north which has long been Labor. Fun fact - I know the Lib Dem candidate for the seat.

Another regional seat that is now safer than much of the Western Suburbs.

Hotham - on the 2019 boundaries, this could have been somewhat competitive in a better election for the Liberals. On the current ones.....

Decent sized Labor swing, which perhaps isn't surprising given the large Chinese population here.

Lalor - safe Labor seat despite the dud local MP. Margin might be interesting to watch for any populist right backlash.

The UAP did do reasonably OK here, but unlike a few other seats there wasn't much of a populist right presence otherwise, hence the slight Labor swing rather than solid Liberal swing.

Gellibrand - as above (ignorning the dud local MP factor). The Point Cook area could be interesting as the area becomes more mature and desirable, but that's quite long-term.

Point Cook stayed pretty stable this election. The area did trend slightly right but there wasn't a particularly significant populist right vote here.

Gorton - another safe Labor seat in the Western Suburbs. I feel like this seat could be prone to a high UAP vote, so the swing could be interesting.

Labor's margin falls below 10%, which isn't ideal and was probably a sign of both One Nation and the UAP polling well. Still a long way away from being vulnerable though.

Cooper - looks very safe, but the Greens candidate at the last election kind of imploded and the new one seems to be very strong so I would expect them to improve on 2019. But without Feeney I don't think the Greens can get as close as they did in 2016.

Liddle did a pretty fantastic job to get a reasonably sized swing in her favour, but absent Labor giving them a gift of a candidate to run against they likely won't go that close to winning the seat in the short-term.

Fraser - safe Labor. The Footscray area is getting more Greeny so I think they could get some strong numbers there, but the rest of the seat is very working-class so it's unlikely to matter much.

Interesting to look at the booth results here - the left held up very well in the Footscray area but the more diverse parts of the seat did see quite a significant backlash against Labor. Although the Trots still managed to outpoll Clive....

Caldwell - very safe Labor. The area seems cooker friendly so the UAP vote here will be one to watch.

This produced the biggest pro-Liberal swing on 2PP in the country, and was best symbolised by the UAP nearly outpolling the Greens. Still, I'm sure if Labor could choose a seat to get big swings against them, it might well be in seats they polled 70% in the past election...

Scullin - the safest Labor seat full stop (though Cooper, Wills and Grayndler beat it if Labor vs. Liberal is used)

Still Labor's safest in Victoria on raw 2PP vote (though I suspect Cooper and Wills would beat it on a Lab/Lib basis), but this was another seat where the populist right vote was large enough to dent the margin quite significant. Still, see what I said about Calwell.

Indi - Helen Haines's seat. Her win was extremely rare as she was replacing another Independent under a similar movement (centrist-style politics with environmental concerns). Usually Independents improve their vote upon re-election quite significantly so I would expect a significant swing towards Haines....but her margin might come down to whether she gets smeared as a Labor stalking horse by the Coalition. Can't see her losing, though.

Fairly robust sophmore surge for Helen Haines, although the margin here is under 60%. Still, she's probably safe enough here for as long as she wants.

Melbourne - Bandt has this seat for as long as he wants. Were Bandt to retire the seat will likely be very close, but that won't come for a while and by that point who knows what the Labor party will look like.
[/quote]
Bandt actually did get a decent sized swing against him on the 2PP vote, perhaps because it was Labor rather than the Liberals that finished second this time. But given he won a majority on first preferences.

[morgieb]

So....my seat is apparently the most left-wing in the country. #ALATT