Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[Devils30]

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-joe-biden-thinks-he-can-flip-north-carolina-blue-in-2024

“ It’s growth in those areas – along with what will be a highly competitive governor’s race – that had led some top national and state-based Democrats to be even more bullish about winning North Carolina in 2024 than they are about carrying Georgia for a second campaign in a row.”

The truth of the matter is, one of the reasons they are in North Carolina is they don't have a choice,” said a top Democratic operative in the state. “North Carolina is the only state where you can add votes from 2020 and I think there is no chance in the world they can win Georgia.” The reason, the operative said, is Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, a talented campaigner who spurred people to vote, was on the ballot with Biden in 2020”.

Tell me exactly how Biden will win NC with a greater vote from college graduates but not improve in the Atlanta suburbs with a ton of these voters. And if the black belt costs Biden Georgia, it will certainly sink him in northeast NC and southeast NC to a point where he easily loses the state. My point is the only thing that has Biden in big trouble in Georgia is the weird polling with Trump leading among 18-44 year olds.

[Devils30]

These Dem operatives come from the Olawakandi School of Senate races creating reverse coattails and impacting the Presidential.

And there’s no world where Texas and Georgia are both an 8 point Trump win.

[Devils30]

I think Biden can win both states, smart money is on Georgia

There's just no world where Biden is gaining ground in Wake, Mecklenberg and not gaining ground in Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry. And Trump led a lot of early Georgia 2020 polls, this state polling underestimated Biden in a year where national and other state polling overestimated him.

[Devils30]

I think Biden can win both states, smart money is on Georgia

There's just no world where Biden is gaining ground in Wake, Mecklenberg and not gaining ground in Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry. And Trump led a lot of early Georgia 2020 polls, this state polling underestimated Biden in a year where national and other state polling overestimated him.

If Biden wins re-election, he is winning Georgia. I sincerly think that.

Agree, towns like Sandy Springs, Marietta, Alpharetta are much more similar to the Main Line outside Philly than to the black belt. Any swing in one will likely happen in the other. And the 2022 Senate race shows how Biden could lose ground in the black belt while still gaining statewide. Warnock got very modest leftward swings in the Atlanta burbs and almost won by 100,000 votes despite doing worse than Biden in nearly all of south Georgia outside Macon, Columbus and Savannah. The GOP also seems to be maxing out in rural north Georgia if 2022 is any indication.

Kemp won by over 7 but remember his coalition was centered on repudiating Trump. The biggest Senate to Gov rightward swings were in the rich suburbs. Again, these Kemp-Warnock voters are mostly Biden 2020 voters and are NOT voting for Trump in 2024. Any Trump win probably depends on a larger third party vote among younger non-whites, not winning back former Rs who have defected.

[Devils30]

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-democrats-georgia-bright-spot-could-be-trouble-in-2024

"The fact that Warnock, senior pastor of the late Dr. Martin Luther King’s one-time church in Atlanta, is not on the ballot is one of the biggest causes for concern among Democrats. The senator and his political operation has proven to be a turnout machine – “a hero on the ballot,” said one Democratic operative who has worked in Georgia – and helped lift all Democrats in 2020."

These concerns are also one reason Democrats close to Biden are more bullish on North Carolina, a state they believe they could need to flip in November if Georgia reverts to the Republican column.

Do any of these idiots realize Warnock's November 2020 was the primary for the GA special, not the actual election? Warnock ran a great runoff campaign but he was NOT the reason Biden was the winner in Georgia. People show up in the largest numbers for the Presidential race! I just wonder about the quality of some people working on campaigns.

[Devils30]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?

I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."

For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.

Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.

I'm not saying GA's long term trend isn't left, but obviously there is some natural fluctuation. Just like climate change, you have ups & downs even if the long term trend is up.

While in 2024, GA might solidly back Trump or like +2/+3 margin, it could very well be +5 D in 2028.

I'm not saying it will become solidly R again. But the process might not be as smooth as sometimes it's stated, some people seem to believe GA might never vote R anymore except for maybe locally.

2010 was also a horrible year for the Democrats nation-wide.

The reason i believe 2024 is turn-out dynamics and the fact that Biden as an incumbent is very popular too, if people believe the entire southeast is going to swing right-wing, than why would Georgia be immune to that.

I wouldn't be so confident if i were other people, and there is a reason why some of the Democratic strategists are saying this, or why the polls so far in Georgia are not looking good. It's not simply, because they are wrong.

And i'm not saying Democrats shouldn't target Georgia. They should always do so, they would be stupid to not too. It's also still january (!), a lot can happen still.

I'm not expecting a dramatic swing in the suburbs (tho some swing is possible). I just believe turnout in Atlanta proper / metro might not be as great as in 2020, and if there are less raw votes from there, there's less room for error. It's not all about the swings and the independents and suburbs, it's also about turnout and raw vote and if the youth or black voters aren't enthusiastic, you'll notice that.

1.7 million is black in metro atlanta



and it's a youthful city. Pretty sure the average 25 yr old might not care as much for a white 81 year old president.

And even a 10% drop in turnout would be very notable, thats like 170.000 people less, enough for a +5 win for Trump.



Don't believe me?

Look at what Obama did in 2008 and the drop from 2012 (less enthusiasm)

But also what Biden did in 2020. That will be insanely hard to replicate again. And you can sort of expect that for a lot of Atlanta proper and inner suburbs.

Go back to 2016 levels Atlanta and you already have 90.000 ppl of the 160.000 you need, for my hypothetical explanation and this is just Fulton County.

And 2020 had exceptional HIGH turnout.

This is the main reason why polls in GA are this bad (the +5 margin), and while this can be still solved up to election day, it will be hard to replictae 2020 because 2020 was exceptional, and progress isn't continuous (taking one step back to make two forward is common).

Secondly, an anti-Trump voter might not necessarily vote for Biden. And Herschel Walker is no Trump. Neither is Biden Warnock.



here, dekalb. And no i'm not saying its gonna swing right or so. I'm talking about raw vote, that would mean the votes statewide would be less to made up for losses in rural GA. Though in DeKalb it would a few tens of K you lose as opposed to maybe 100K in Fulton.



Like check how much turnout rose in Gwinnett.

even Trump gained 20K in raw vote but Dems 80K. So a 60K increase in widening vote difference here. I mean it's about certainly going to fall a bit. This is such an exceptionally great performance that it basically requires high enthusiasm and great turnout efforts, and the first might be an issue given Biden no longer has the benefit of ppl not having seen them in office while Trump has somewhat faded to the background.

Except the 2020 trends in GA were backed up by 16 years of major swings toward Dems in the Atlanta metro. Warnock also replicated and expanded on Biden's coalition in the 2022 regular and runoff election. Turnout also dropped from the 2022 general to runoff but Warnock's margin increased.

[Devils30]

Well if Biden's opposition to foreign terrorist groups is a deal-breaker to you then you can deal with Donald Trump's second term.

[Devils30]

A lot of liberal bedwetting comes from the idea that non-whites will not vote because they are mad about Gaza (despite most of these protests being whites, Arabs) while white non-college will have even larger turnout than 2020.

I think it is quite possible non-white, non-college turnout falls in 2024, along with a corresponding fall among WWC voters not really as enthusiastic at Trump's third run. This will hurt Dems in urban areas but may also hurt the GOP in rural GA, WI, PA, MI. Biden's path here runs through getting even larger suburban margins and I think a lot of people expecting regression in Gwinnett, Cobb will be quite disappointed. Places like Henry, Fayette based on demographics will almost certainly be bluer in 2024 than 2020 (see 2022 Gov in Henry if you think I'm bs'ing). New 2024 voters who are 18-21 should be good for Dems (even if some vote third party).

GA is a good example of what will win out, polls or trends? If Biden ends up beating his polling, I can see GA being ground zero for this.  

[Devils30]

I think it is quite possible non-white, non-college turnout falls in 2024, along with a corresponding fall among WWC voters not really as enthusiastic at Trump's third run. This will hurt Dems in urban areas but may also hurt the GOP in rural GA, WI, PA, MI.

Evidence??

2022 did not really have the WWC rural surge people predicted. The GOP gains from 2020 were entirely in densely populated blue states (CA, NY) and densely populated red states (FL). Yes, some of Trump's base will only show up for him but I am not sure if those casual voters he got who voted in 2020 but not 2016 will bother to show up again. These voters (mostly WWC) are what kept him in the game in MI,PA,WI.

[Devils30]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

[Devils30]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Biden should hold with college educated whites but non-college whites are a different story: if he does as poorly as Abrams or even Charlie Bailey with them he’s in trouble.

I thought non-college whites in GA were already something close to 90% Republican. College whites were the demographic where Abrams underperformed Biden the most.

Trump got 79% of them while Kemp hit 83%.

The Kemp, Trump/Walker difference was more with college whites, non-whites than WWC but of course Kemp overpeformed with all groups. Kemp received the votes of moderates who will not go to Trump though.

[Devils30]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

Both states were won narrowly (less than half a point) except Obama '08 was winning the popular vote by 7+ points while Biden '20 won the popular vote by less than 5.

NC was farther away from the tipping point, which meant Republicans didn't really lose their grip on the state long-term but instead got swept up in that year's wave.

That Georgia flipped in a closer election and then reelected its Democratic senator in a Dem midterm  should be a little more worrisome for Republicans.

I think the the senate losses can be explained by outside factors: catastrophic GOP turnout in North GA in the 2021 runoffs and Walker being a horrific candidate in 2022.

Democrats have won FOUR races in Georgia in the last 2 cycles (6 if you count Warnock’s first place finish in each of his general elections) yet some people still rely on excuses and claim each win was a “fluke.”

A fluke win happens once in a blue moon (Indiana ‘08, Alabama Senate ‘17), not four times in two cycles.

I’m not saying GA is a blue state, but it sure ain’t a a red state anymore.

Republicans won the cumulative PV in the 2020 senate special in round 1, so I don’t count that as a win for Democrats.

2020 Rs had a downballot strength with some white suburban college voters that dissipated after Dobbs.