There are some exceptions, such as GA-06 special during the summer of 2017, compared to the general that took place in November 2018.
I'd mostly chalk that result up to persuasion, a more favourable national environment for the Democratic Party in 2018, their superior GOTV machine, and a poorer the lack of national attention being placed on that race.
I can buy it. It used to be that Republicans were the higher-propensity voters (mainly college-educated whites) who showed up in the midterms, but now that has reversed. So it seems midterms and off-year elections now favor Democrats, while presidential elections (especially with Trump on the ballot) favor Republicans.
Great analysis; 100% agreed.
The GA-6 2017 special was a lot like the PA-12 special in 2010. Last hurrah for a party before its brand went completely into the dumps in their respective district.
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