Trump wins in 2024 and becomes 2nd term Bush levels unpopular. Don Jr. is nominated in 2028 and loses in a landslide to someone broadly appealing like Whitmer or Beshear.
Senate is a bloodbath, with every D-held seat easily holding, WI easily flipping, Ted Budd losing, Peltola flipping AK after Murkowski retires, and maybe even Vance and Rubio going down.
Pretty much this, the far left costs Biden in 2024 and moderate Dems become furious with the far left. This leads to many university departments being eliminated with Dems quietly approving the defunding along with a broad number of foreign students removed from the country. Trump has the Feds massacre 100 in a BLM style riot and this (along with a recession) permanently craters his approvals to Bush levels. However, people are tired on both the left and right and AOC drops out after 35 point losses to Whitmer on Super Tuesday.
Trump behaves like the clown he is, most of his actions are disallowed in court and Dems pick up the House with 245+ seats and Senate with 54+ that includes 2026 pickups in AK, NC, ME and maybe TX along with WI, NC in 2028. Dems nominate a Whitmer/Moore ticket that romps and finally brings the emerging Democratic majority. Republicans suddenly want national redistricting reform with the party staring at Dem gerrymanders in MN, GA, PA in 2030 along with partial control in TX.
