NBC news article: Arab voters rage at Biden in key swing state (Michigan)

[Devils30]

The 1-2% gain with WWC or college whites would offset this and (as I mentioned in another post) Dems have a bigger cushion in MI than WI or PA. Still room to grow in Oakland, Ottawa, Kent, Leelanau, Grand Traverse. Also helps that the state GOP is a dumpster fire.

[Devils30]

I'm pretty sure the heavily Arab/Muslim parts of Dearborn swung hard against Whitmer last year but she still did better statewide than she did in 2018.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1715790678523826601

Big swing against Whitmer, and it's too small of a group to really matter outside of a Florida 2000 type election.

[Devils30]

The Muslim/Arab vote in this country at 1.3% is just not significant. And this figure in addition to being packed into NY, NJ, IL, MD probably includes some Arabs who hate the Islamist movement (a lot of immigrants vote against the regimes they escaped, Dems learned this hard way in Miami).

[Devils30]

But are they voting for Trump? For spoiler candidates? Or not at all?

not turning out. This will be a huge problem for biden he ain't getting that 2020 covid turnout this time around. Banking on trump being unpopular won't negate that. I've been seeing a increase in people saying they hate biden now but hate trump too it's just gonna be a turnout problem

Don't assume a turnout problem in urban areas= sure Biden/Dem loss.

For example, Biden could always counter decreased turnout in Philly/Detroit with bigger margins in Oakland/Montgomery/Chester. In fact, that is exactly what happened in the midterms with young turnout dropping. Do not assume Biden cannot gain in the suburbs even more, public opinion is not on the side of Hamas.

[Devils30]

But are they voting for Trump? For spoiler candidates? Or not at all?

not turning out. This will be a huge problem for biden he ain't getting that 2020 covid turnout this time around. Banking on trump being unpopular won't negate that. I've been seeing a increase in people saying they hate biden now but hate trump too it's just gonna be a turnout problem

Don't assume a turnout problem in urban areas= sure Biden/Dem loss.

For example, Biden could always counter decreased turnout in Philly/Detroit with bigger margins in Oakland/Montgomery/Chester. In fact, that is exactly what happened in the midterms with young turnout dropping. Do not assume Biden cannot gain in the suburbs even more, public opinion is not on the side of Hamas.

Where are the articles about college educated Trump voters ready to vote for Biden?

This sounds a lot like the Hillary 2016 thesis. They thought they can afford to lose a few small town rubes, no problem. It turned out it wasn’t just small towns — it was also Youngstown, Kenosha and Scranton.

In this case, it isn’t just Dearborn — it’s also Detroit and Philly. Go into these communities and you’ll find either apathy or outright anger with Biden and the Democrats. They feel like they aren’t being listened to.

The 2022 midterms had a little bit of this with additional Dem gains in Bucks, MontCo, Oakland, Maricopa, and Cobb, Gwinnett, Forsyth. Not huge gains but a point or 2 better than 2020.

WWC numbers are also a wildcard for 2024, if Biden can go -31 instead of -35 with them it makes a difference. And trends are not linear, 2012 interrupted a lot of the 2000-2008 trends that later resumed with Trump. You can see this happening with a Harris 2028 having a complete rural white collapse at all levels.

Philly had apathy in 2022, but if you can win moderates/independents it solves a lot of problems. It will be interesting to see if any third parties really matter in the end. Yes, there is a Cornel West threat to Biden but RFK Jr sucking away a tiny of bit of Trump's WWC is also a problem. Also do not forget FL has sucked away some GOP leaning voters from WI MI PA. It shouldn't be a huge number but in a close election you never know.

[Devils30]

The Muslim/Arab vote in this country at 1.3% is just not significant. And this figure in addition to being packed into NY, NJ, IL, MD probably includes some Arabs who hate the Islamist movement (a lot of immigrants vote against the regimes they escaped, Dems learned this hard way in Miami).

Elections usually are within 1%

Those 1.3% would make the difference between Trump winning re-election or not in 2020 given how close some states were.

1.3% is the national figure. What I'm saying is persuasion with white moderates is probably an easy way to counter a swing among Muslims. Of course leftists think being to the left of Lenin and Mao is the way you get minorities to turn out and vote Dem.

[Devils30]

What I don't get about this type of story or this supposed trend is that Biden never hid his views on Israel, and anyone who voted for him in 2020 knew what they were getting. Trump is even more pro-Israel than Biden, and in case anyone is wondering, so is RFK Jr.

That's true, but at the same time, Arab and Muslim and especially Palestinian-American voters don't want to be effectively complicit in their own destruction, and they deserve more than scolding from white liberals.

What are Biden and moderate Dems supposed to do? Endorse crashing planes into buildings? Yes I am being sarcastic but Arabs hold some issue positions very far out of the mainstream.

[Devils30]

Giving in so much to the BLM crap was largely responsible for destroying Democratic advantages in most swing states. If Biden is smart, he won't indulge in this nonsense. Most Americans are not sympathetic to Hamas, no matter how many thousands of idiots stumble aimlessly around Chicago with antisemitic signs. This whole drama is entirely manufactured outrage. Democrats need to find an answer people's economic anxieties, which they're so far failing to do. That's what this election will be won or lost on. Persuadable voters don't care about Israel-Palestine, and that's not even taking into account that no one will remember this two months from now, let alone next November.

There was no democratic advantage in swing states that wasn’t projected from s••• polls and BLM helped Biden win, that’s the reality.

The most this conflict will do is lessen Palestinian and Muslim turnout, which is killer with an electorate poorer and more disappointed in Democrats than on November 6, 2020. Michigan is now lost for the Democratic party on account of Biden not condemning the extreme anti-Arab and Islamophobic wave taking hold.

For the last time, some Muslims already vote red and this group even in Michigan is small enough for Biden to slip with and still win by plenty. A small white college or WWC shift counters this. And from midterms and the specials, Dems might still be making gains with white college on top of 2020.