Can the NJGOP win post-Roe?

[Devils30]

It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.

All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.

With the NJGOP gains in South Jersey and the end of Norcross, the GOP could make gains in the Legislature that creates a single majority for Democrats. Dems would respond by making the '25 election about abortion. They are pro-life Republicans like Jay Webber in the Assembly if the GOP gains power. Dems would make abortion a big issue in NJ and a lot of women in NJ would probably prioritize that more than high property taxes or inflation/jobs.

South Jersey isn’t too populous, especially the parts where the GOP gains are coming from. The GOP needs to do well in North Jersey suburbia to get a majority. They might be making gains in the cities and in South Jersey, but they are not gaining ground in competitive areas nearly as much.

There is literally one state senate seat and two assembly seats left that they could gain in south Jersey.

Yeah that’s what I mean. They are gonna lose those Biden +15 suburban seats soon and South Jersey doesn’t have much left in terms of pickups.

Geography has also helped Dems in NJ a ton since the Trump era began. You can easily draw an 11-1 map without absurd lines. The GOP vote is so packed into Ocean these days.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8d3445f0-1549-47ec-8397-a1ca62ef3c41

[Devils30]

It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.

All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.

With the NJGOP gains in South Jersey and the end of Norcross, the GOP could make gains in the Legislature that creates a single majority for Democrats. Dems would respond by making the '25 election about abortion. They are pro-life Republicans like Jay Webber in the Assembly if the GOP gains power. Dems would make abortion a big issue in NJ and a lot of women in NJ would probably prioritize that more than high property taxes or inflation/jobs.

South Jersey isn’t too populous, especially the parts where the GOP gains are coming from. The GOP needs to do well in North Jersey suburbia to get a majority. They might be making gains in the cities and in South Jersey, but they are not gaining ground in competitive areas nearly as much.

There is literally one state senate seat and two assembly seats left that they could gain in south Jersey.

Yeah that’s what I mean. They are gonna lose those Biden +15 suburban seats soon and South Jersey doesn’t have much left in terms of pickups.

Geography has also helped Dems in NJ a ton since the Trump era began. You can easily draw an 11-1 map without absurd lines. The GOP vote is so packed into Ocean these days.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8d3445f0-1549-47ec-8397-a1ca62ef3c41

It's pretty interesting that an almost maximal GOP pack in NJ can be perfectly compact Ocean County + the red towns of Monmouth. Ocean is becoming more and more of a pack each cycle. I think the GOP eclipsed 70% in Ocean in 2022.

Yeah, the NJ-2 has a funky arm into Collingswood and Voorhees but you could probably still draw a very compact Biden +7 NJ-2 without this somewhat funky shape.

[Devils30]

Do Republicans have a chance to take the State Senate? I saw some recent polling I found concerning.

Those were Republican internals, so take it with a grain of salt.

I certainly wouldn't bet on them winning the Senate. The most likely path would be holding all 16 of their seats while flipping LDs 4, 11, 16, 38 and 14 in that order. They will most likely make net gains, but an outright majority will be a very tough lift. An even split is far more likely.

If anything, Republicans may have a slightly better chance (though still probably under 30%) of winning the Assembly, since there's one district (LD 11) with a Democratic Senator and two Republican Assemblywomen. A net gain of 5 seats (hold all 46 while flipping both seats in LD 4 and three of the four seats in LDs 16 and 38) there seems a bit more doable, since incumbents seem to be stronger in the Senate than they are in the Assembly.

There's no way the GOP is winning the state senate. LD-16 was once GOP leaning but that ship sailed when Trump won.