Miami–Dade County, Florida…and what else?

[Devils30]

Shouldn't Maricopa AZ be back within possibility?

Rs can win back Maricopa county, but the problem is even on the downballot their win margins are shrinking a lot. 10 years ago or so, Dems would struggle to get in the 40's now they are pushing into the 46/47 range. And that's just downballot, if you move top of the ticket Rs can still win the county but they are likely capped at maybe a 1 or 2 point win at this point.

Arizona and Florida diverging in political trends would not have been predictable in 2012 or even 2016. Heck, in 2012 you probably would guess FL is a blue state and AZ red. Obviously the AZ GOP is an absolute joke and the FL GOP a perfectly run machine.