Regression to the mean. Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.
It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.
That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.
How would you rank the seats from most likely to least to go R, out of curiosity? Mine is FL>WI>NC>PA>AZ>NH>NV>GA.
I'd put WI ahead of NC for Dems in 2022. Johnson is problematic with all of his statements and WWC dropoff in a midterm might hurt the Rs more.
