Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Devils30]

Unvaccinated voters are less likely to be voters in general is the point I am making.

[Devils30]

Redfield & Wilton
45% approve
37% disapprove

Trafalgar Group
40% approve
56% disapprove

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

A- pollster with a stellar track record. Misses in GA, MI, PA, AZ, NV in 2020 and only a 16 point miss in the CA recall.

[Devils30]

We are going to get a good indication in 2 weeks from NJ and VA if the Dems as a party will suffer from his declining approval or if the non-change in the generic ballot even as his approval has fallen considerably is real. None of the pollsters seem to know wtf is happening either so it's best to wait for real numbers.

[Devils30]

Sorry for triple post, but with CA's updated exit poll, it appears the 538 tracker, despite some of its issues, is actually probably on point with reality.

CA exit poll (revised) had Biden +23 approval, a -6 pt downgrade from his 2020 margin.

On Election Day in CA in September, 538 aggregate had Biden's approval sitting at -2, which would also be a -6 downgrade from 2020 (Biden +4 nationally)

So if we assume the tracker is about right now, with Biden -6.5 nationally, that would place Biden at about dead even in Virginia, given the VA was 6% to the left in 2020.

Which lines up with Fox News and Morning Consult's recent polling.

Dems will win in VA but the even worse than 2016-20 WWC numbers are a horrible sign for 2022 in the midwest. I do not get why Biden is being so friendly to the progressives, they are toxic for the median voter.

[Devils30]

Sorry for triple post, but with CA's updated exit poll, it appears the 538 tracker, despite some of its issues, is actually probably on point with reality.

CA exit poll (revised) had Biden +23 approval, a -6 pt downgrade from his 2020 margin.

On Election Day in CA in September, 538 aggregate had Biden's approval sitting at -2, which would also be a -6 downgrade from 2020 (Biden +4 nationally)

So if we assume the tracker is about right now, with Biden -6.5 nationally, that would place Biden at about dead even in Virginia, given the VA was 6% to the left in 2020.

Which lines up with Fox News and Morning Consult's recent polling.

Dems will win in VA but the even worse than 2016-20 WWC numbers are a horrible sign for 2022 in the midwest. I do not get why Biden is being so friendly to the progressives, they are toxic for the median voter.

Eh, I usually side with the moderates but IMO the progressives have been very reasonable this go around. The "moderates" are the ones who have hamstrung most of this.

Sinema is the real problem, Manchin is what you expect from a Trump +39 state. That said, the progressives have a worldview that is extremely unrealistic, you cannot expect to spend 6-10 trillion in an economy that is not in any depression and has an unemployment rate well below 2009 levels. You also get the extra stuff like "birthing people" and Israel as an "apartheid state" that is fresh meat for the GOP.