2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Devils30]

Nunes might end up in a Biden district.

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1448466780029128709?s=20

This might not be so bad if Dems have a bunch of seats they can pull out in a D+2 type of year. Nunes will have trouble outrunning the GOP baseline due to his history.

[Devils30]

Are these anything but preliminary draft maps? Michigan has about 25 drafts and counting.

[Devils30]

Valadao getting a slightly R district and Nunes getting a tossup seat is probably a fine deal for Dems. The key is being able to win the House in those neutral D+2 years if an open seat pops up and both would accomplish that goal. Harder looks like he could get a minimal change seat and that is a potential problem with the way rural Hispanics have trended. SoCal is where Dems should want a good map, if Kim gets stuck in a Biden +17 seat she is finished.

[Devils30]

the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Huh?

Steele and Kim, no?

Affluent, historically Republican suburbs in OC are in Steel, Porter, and Levin's districts. North/West OC are quite working class. In the specific case of Kim, her victory was driven by middle class and working class Asian voters splitting their ballots Biden/Kim. Steel perhaps fits Sol's case better, but that went from a ultra-close Rouda win to an ultra-close Rouda loss. I wouldn't read too much into it.

We need to have the commission put Long Beach in 48.

[Devils30]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Wouldn’t be a bad long term trade for Dems. Issa is weaker than Steel and both probably trend D over time.

[Devils30]

For 2022 I think it's quite possible only Harder CA-10 and Garcia CA-25 flip, washing each other out. However, it's easy to see a 2023-24 with Trump and congressional GOP going crazy where the Rs end up getting obliterated and lose CA-10,21,22,39,48,50 all at once.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1458648904652574728

CA-10: Harder gets shored up considerably
CA-21: Valadao will win in 2022, could be in play if he's MAGA'ed
CA-22: Nunes will not survive past 2024
CA-25: Garcia looks cooked even in a R wave
CA-39: Kim gets a better seat, we'll see how long it lasts
CA-45: Porter in trouble for 2022, too liberal for seat.
CA-48: Steel in serious trouble
CA-50: Issa wins in 2022, district trend will take him over by 2024-26.