2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Devils30]

Also worth noting we haven't seen the congressional map yet.  It could be that Democrats are very worried about what the state supreme court would do, but it could also be that they agreed to legislative maps that look like toss-ups for control based on non-2020 data in order to get a congressional map that preserves 7D/4R.  For example, giving Spanberger Charlottesville and Luria the majority-white part of Norfolk would do this.

If Dems had drawn the map, I think they probably go 8-3. I'd guess they'd have made 5,6,9 extremely red while putting 1 into Prince William and Fairfax.

[Devils30]

7-4 D that's 6-3-2 in terms of competitive seems like a fair map for VA

[Devils30]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

I’m expecting a minimal change congressional map as well from the court, maybe a few shifts for population growth but I expect VA 2 and 7 to remain competitive.

[Devils30]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

[Devils30]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

It's what happens when you have a whole generation of aspiring Democratic leaders growing up through social justice marches instead of understanding the nuts and bolts of legislating. It's amazing how many law professors, Ivy League PhDs are complete morons when it comes to politics.

[Devils30]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

OMG.  JFC.  This is exhibit A to the problem.  Dems cannot unilaterally disarm.  This is exactly what got us Donald Trump with a GOP senate and house and unchecked power.  Saying, "we're better than them" and letting them lie, cheat, and steal their way to power.

It's a moderate court, that's why I suspect they'll draw a minimal change map in the end. After Biden gets the infrastructure bills passed it's time to move to the center on cultural issues and throw AOC under the bus.

[Devils30]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

OMG.  JFC.  This is exhibit A to the problem.  Dems cannot unilaterally disarm.  This is exactly what got us Donald Trump with a GOP senate and house and unchecked power.  Saying, "we're better than them" and letting them lie, cheat, and steal their way to power.

It's a moderate court, that's why I suspect they'll draw a minimal change map in the end. After Biden gets the infrastructure bills passed it's time to move to the center on cultural issues and throw AOC under the bus.

Yes, I'm not expecting an unapologetic R gerrymander from the VA court. 

And while this probably isn't the right thread for it, I also can't believe how quickly Dems are falling back into the all social issues, all the time trap when there is no need.

VA-1 only went Trump 51-47 and the growing parts are rapidly Dem trending Stafford and Prince William. In theory Wittman could trade some blue parts of the 1st for some red parts of the 7th.

[Devils30]

The "7 competitive districts" plan, lol

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/328/1

Based NC border to Roanoke to Cville to suburban Henrico district

This won’t be passing. As I’ve said numerous times, I believe a minimal change map is most likely.

[Devils30]

It's weird how most of the maps have consensus about including western Fairfax with the Loudoun district rather than just starting with Loudoun and continuing west...  At least they all look better than the current 10th district which stretches all the way to McLean and wraps into Prince William.

Don't pretend the Rs have nothing to lose with a minimal change map. The 7-4 D can become 6-5 R in a good R midterm but also might be a steady 8-3 D by 2028 given VA-1's growth area is Prince William and VA-7 is Chesterfield.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450086623769767939

Also person tagged the wrong Jason Torchinsky in the thread lol

honestly, this "commission" was a mess and it seems like it was for the best to just end it.

The follow up tweet I feel is important - turns out that Tom Davis map was more important then we knew.

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450089522386153475?s=20

Damn. Well I'm glad this info was unearthed before this map got any further.

As I've said, the VA supreme court will probably just pick special masters who design a minimal change map (which given trends could be a decent 8-3 D by middle of decade). That map reeks of bad faith on the GOP's part though.

[Devils30]

Are the VA GOP trying to goad the VASC to appoint Trende as the R master consultant by nominating two people that are completely unqualified for the role?  I noticed they did this strategy last time by nominating two partisans directly from the national party and then a third guy that was like, kinda sorta okay-ish.  

Basically pick two god awful nominees and then a C-rate nominee so the VASC has no real choice but to pick the C-rate (but still partisan) nominee?

This is basically what they did the first time and the court said gtfo. Trende is on the surface more acceptable then their goaded pick from previously, but trying the same strategy twice might result in the same result twice only now they could be locked out through contempt.

Trende would be a pretty fair pick, he's been R aligned but not pro-Trump. I could see a Biden +10 VA-2 as it would be the 6th Dem seat in a Biden +10 state and VA-7 becoming a Biden +2-5 type seat.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1461758918728769537

lol

Trende is a never Trumper type, I wouldn't bet on him being too kind toward Amanda Chase in VA-7.

[Devils30]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

[Devils30]

9-2 Democratic gerrymander in VA: https://districtr.org/plan/128946.

Try 10-1!

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ef5e4627-31fe-4598-bf3f-fd19bb78c372

Nice. The only problem is how convoluted and weird looking the district lines are, but I suppose that can’t be helped and is necessary to achieve 10 blue seats.

The courts map actually create a pretty effective R sink in VA-09. It’s really unpacking 3 and 4 which is challenging without violating VRA.

Yes, now that VA-09 is as R as VA-08 is D, there isn't too much of a statewide bias anymore.  NOVA is so uniform now that it's a borderline natural D gerrymander, but Richmond/Hampton Roads is a natural R gerrymander like other smallish Southern cities. 

Raleigh is also somewhat of a natural D grrrymander now that you bring it up. D throughout without being hyper-D. The issue is that in other parts of NC Dems face challenging geography.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7ca9d122-4b03-45e2-ab8f-84ebed2d379c

10-4 and for every race including 2016 Senate!