Ivory Coast presidential election - October 25, 2015 (user search)
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  Ivory Coast presidential election - October 25, 2015 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Ivory Coast presidential election - October 25, 2015  (Read 5149 times)
Simfan34
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Posts: 15,744
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E: 0.90, S: 4.17

« on: September 21, 2015, 12:46:20 PM »

And here I was thinking they were still using the old-fashioned seven year term. How did I overlook this?
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Simfan34
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*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2015, 09:29:01 PM »

And here I was thinking they were still using the old-fashioned seven year term. How did I overlook this?

They had Presidential elections in 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 and 2010. CdI has never used 7 year terms.

Hmm. I feel like I knew this but forgot for some reason.

Really excellent work with this thread, though, Politicus. I'd genuinely like to give you some kind of medal for it. Smiley A very thorough recap of the candidates and alliances. I'd only say a little bit more historic background was in order (although I'll probably repeat some of what you've already said).

For decades the dominant figure in the Ivory Coast was Le Vieux Houphouët: Felix Houphouët-Boigny, its President from 1960 until, as you said, his death in 1993. From 1960 to 1990 the Ivory Coast, as was typical in Africa in those days, was a one party state under the PDCI, but, unlike most other African leaders in those days, and especially unlike most in former French colonies, Houphouët-Boigny maintained a close relationship with the West, especially France, often serving as accessory to the scheming done in the name of Françafrique.

In the days before independence, FHB, as a member of the National Assembly, had advocated autonomy for French West Africa but opposed full independence. His bitter rival in the Assembly was none other than Léopold Sédar-Senghor, who of course would go on to become President of Senegal. Senghor was in favor of an independence for French West Africa as a single federation (dominated by Senegal). Both the French Union supported by Houphouët-Boigny and the Mali Federation supported by Senghor were defunct by 1960 and the Ivory Coast became independent.

In the decades following independence, the Ivory Coast became one of the wealthiest countries in Africa. The economy was (and still is) primarily based on cocoa and coffee exports, but unlike most other African commodity exporters of the period, the Ivorians shunned state socialism and large-scale "Africanisation" of foreign firms, meaning that foreign investors flocked to the country, and foreign entrepreneurs-- particularly Lebanese and Greeks-- opened new firms, propelling the Ivory Coast past other countries whose expropriated private sectors were atrophying under cronyism and mismanagement. People spoke glowingly of the "Ivorian Miracle", and Western governments held Le Vieux Houphouët in the highest regard.

But this would not last. Cocoa and coffee prices, which had been on a continuously upwards trend since independence, stopped their rise in 1979 and plummeted in the 1980s, bringing the "Ivorian Miracle" to an immediate halt. Besides money-draining import-substitution firms, the Ivorian government, to its credit, had tried to diversify and cultivate an export-oriented manufacturing sector, but the products most firms hoped to produce were beyond their comparative advantage, with the cost of importing the needed machinery far exceeding any money made. The Ivorians lacked the means to prop up the small manufacturing sector, most spare money going to keep cocoa farmers afloat by buying their crop at inflated prices, and, increasingly time went on, debt service. Foreign businessmen left the country in droves, taking with them their firms and their money. The fact that Houphouët-Boigny, chose to start construction on a new capital city in his home village, Yamoussoukro--(in)famously home to what is claimed to be the world's largest church-- did nothing to help matters.

By the end of the decade the country was poorer than it had been 10 years before, deeply in debt, and showed no signs of turning things around anytime soon. Things would only be downhill from there-- Politicus has told us that part of the story. My only postscript would be to add that, 36 years later, Ivorian GDP per capita, when adjusted for inflation, remains below what it was at its peak in 1979.
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Simfan34
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Posts: 15,744
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Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2015, 09:33:23 PM »

But anyway, there's more candidates than I would have expected. Particularly Amara Essy-- I've thought him a decent figure, but I would have expected him to cast his lot in with the RDR, or one of the Houphouëtist groups, particularly if they're running together in a single bloc. Which I'm surprised they actually managed to pull off, considering all the personalities involved. I'd suspect, considering Houphouët's legacy (if one can call it that), a fully reconstituted PCDI would be in a position to dominate Ivorian politics by simply playing off nostalgia for the "good old days"--which, as we saw in Nigeria, people don't necessary need to have lived through to be nostalgic for-- and the credibility having been in power back then confers. The election is certainly Ouattara's to lose; the question is what happens in the next election.

Is the CDC just going to have five candidates on the ballot... what is the point of that? Did they not have a primary or convention or something of that sort, and if they did (presuming a dispute over the outcome), how did they manage to have the Electoral Commission accept them on the ballot?
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Simfan34
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*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2015, 03:46:17 PM »

Well the question is, who exactly is this NGO that confirmed the electoral commission's turnout figures? That, and the question of who exactly these FPI hardliners who boycotted the election were. If they were able to influence a sufficient amount of "FPIstes" (This is a word), it is possible that they've been the cause of their own problem--that N'Guessan's poor showing is the result of his would-be supporters heeding the call for a boycott and staying home.

Ouattara's result is consistent with what would have been expected in the case of an opposition boycott; the provisional results have him receiving 2.62 million votes, which is not that much more than the 2.48 million second-round votes he won in 2010. It's essentially the same as the combined totals of Ouattara and Konan Bédié in the first-round in 2010, which was 2.64 million.

Essy and Konan Banny were houphouëtiste career civil servants whose campaigns seem unlikely to have had any dedicated constituency, ethnic or otherwise, and Koulibaly was always in the awkward position of having been a Gbagbo ally who came from the same region as Ouattara; it's not improbable that whatever voters they would have had, voted for Ouattara instead.

I'd like to see a regional breakdown of the results, which would indicate ethnic voting patterns, but all in all these results do not strike me as implausible. Now to see if he'll try to linger on past the next election like his predecessor...
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