A Dean comeback in NH??

[StevenNick]

Zogby tracking polls are compiled using data from three days worth of polling.  Every day a new poll is completed, the poll from three days earlier is dropped off.  

The current Zogby tracking poll of the last three days shows Kerry with 30% and Dean with 23%.  However, these numbers are skewed by a double digit lead Kerry held on Thursday.  On Friday, Kerry had 26% and Dean had 22%.  On Saturday, Kerry had 28% and Dean was polling at 25%.  If that trend continues, New Hampshire could be extremely close.

One factor that could help Howard Dean:  New Hampshire is supposed to be blanketed with a foot of snow on Tuesday.  I would guess that Dean voters are probably more motivated to get to the polls than any of the other candidate's supporters especially because their guy is now the underdog.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Dean come within a point or two of Kerry.  He could even eek out a victory.  After all, New Hampshire voters seem to get some kind of perverse pleasure in knocking off front-runners.

It's all probably wishful thinking on my part, but it could happen, right?

[StevenNick]

The latest ARG poll shows him 18 points behind and in a tough battle with Edwards for 2nd. Zogby seems to be the only one out of step.

It wouldn't be the first time Zogby was out of step, but the Zogby polls turned out to be pretty close in Iowa.