Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Looks like Russia has more or less finished its buildup of equipment and has begun large scale personnel movements to the front and is conducting its first readiness exercises. Continues to be in line with the predicted timetable of an invasion in ~1-2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1489269948279107590

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1489732150823989248

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1489759897885495298

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1489756520418095108

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1490060541745901572

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

6 Russian Warships And Submarine Now Entering Black Sea Towards Ukraine

Home» News»6 Russian Warships And Submarine Now Entering Black Sea Towards Ukraine
Russian Navy Ship Heading To Black Sea
Click to Enlarge. Russian Navy landing ship RFS Kaliningrad (102) seen passing through the Dardanelles on February 8th. Photograph copyright Yörük Işık, with permission.
6 Russian Warships And Submarine Now Entering Black Sea Towards Ukraine
Russia's military build-up around Ukraine is moving into a new phase. Emerging from under a veil of 'drills', 6 landing ships and a submarine are now sailing into the Black Sea. This brings them ever closer to potential operations in Ukraine.

H I Sutton 08 Feb 2022

The first part of a Russian Navy amphibious landing ship force, which can carry troops, tanks and supplies, has entered the Dardanelles, connecting the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. This is significant, representing a point of no return in their controversial voyage towards the Black Sea and Ukraine.

The narrow waterways running through Istanbul connects the Black Sea and Mediterranean. The first is the Dardanelles, followed by the famous Bosporus. Due to traffic regulation ships do not turn around. 6 amphibious warfare ships and a submarine are expected to pass north into the Black Sea over the next few days.

Entering these waterways removes any final ambiguity surrounding their mission. Their travel from the Baltic and Northern fleets are undeniably part of President Putin’s Ukraine build-up. These ships are, due to their amphibious warfare role, suitable for offensive troop landings. Or vital logistics support to land operations along the coast.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Good thread on invasion timing. 20th-21st of this month is the highest risk date but before or after that can't be ruled out. At this point Russia has the ability to start military action at very short notice.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1491521222437445633?s=20&t=6Dni_tsl2m3B33...

More on the high probability of Russian action and the timing of it:
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1491688259923103745

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Good thread on invasion timing. 20th-21st of this month is the highest risk date but before or after that can't be ruled out. At this point Russia has the ability to start military action at very short notice.

Full invasion like this one?   Other than that Russia has always had ability to start military action at very short notice.



https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1490124082314108938

Pretending that there's no difference between having limited forces deployed and having nearly 100 battalion tactical groups in the field in the immediate vicinity of the Ukrainian border is just plain insulting to everyone here. You should step up your game if you want to keep pushing Putin's propaganda.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I would also like the USA to present at the UN evidence they have that shows Russia will invade imminently.  They did it in the Cuban Missile Crisis, why not now ?   

Either Russians will start shooting or publicly-available satellite imagery will confirms current Russian positions faster than a formal presentation to the UN could happen, I'd guess.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/CBSWalsh/status/1493295395992227849

Russia and Belarus are currently conducting exercises. I’d hope the CIA would be smart enough to figure out if troop movements are related likely to be related to exercises or actual positioning for an invasion of Ukraine.

 US warnings have been generally vague, moving to “attack positions” where? Belarus, the Donbass, Crimea, 300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border? I understand that this is highly sensitive intelligence, but with how little meat there has been on the bones of what “US officials” have been publicly releasing, it gives some weight to Russian statements  about American “hysteria”.

Videos show Russian units and missiles advancing towards Ukraine border

The build-up of Russian forces close to the Ukrainian border continues apace, with everything from submarines and amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea to short-range ballistic missiles, tanks and howitzers around Ukraine's northeastern edges.

CNN has geolocated and authenticated social media videos of these movements -- though there are likely many more that are not being observed.

CNN geolocated these videos at the village of Sereteno, about 15 miles (24 kilometers) from the border. They were uploaded on Sunday and show tanks moving through the area.

https://twitter.com/Michael1Sheldon/status/1493036503974486018

But maybe myself and many others are being too cynical about our fine Russian friends, and thishttps://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1493332619597172744 along with  revitalizing a flagging NATO, convincing Sweden and Finland they ought to join NATO, calling into question EU-Russian energy commerce, and finally get NATO to arm Ukraine to the teeth, while spending more rubles than I can readily calculate on said military deployments are all part of Mr. Putin's Peaceful Plan to... do what, exactly? Make unserious demands about NATO abandoning its actual members, while whining that NATO has kept its promises about not threatening Russia for a quarter-century (while Russia has engaged in military action with multiple neighboring countries)?

That's the thing I keep coming back to. If it's not intended for a bona-fide criminal invasion of Ukraine, then its a great deal of trouble for no return other than a lot of media attention. And I can't help but think that Mr. Putin's government ought to be competent to come up with ways to get that without all the negatives (for Russian interests) attached to the current course of action. So, am I to conclude that the current Russian government in reasonably peaceful but really, really incompetent? Or that it is doing precisely what it looks like it's doing? I know what Occam's Shaving Device tells me.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

A grim prediction for the next 48 (if not 24) hours:

The Duma will vote to request that Putin recognize Donetsk and Luhansk. (Because that's what sham legislatures do. They say, "Pretty please Mr. Autocrat, haven't we recited our lines nicely today?")

In response, the abysmally idiotic government of Ukraine will launch a pointless attack there will be a false flag attack by "Ukraine" on Russians staged by the Russia government.

Which Putin will - with Sen. Collins-like levels of concern and regret - use as an excuse to launch an assault on Ukraine with the 70+ percent of Russia's military who by sheer coincidence just happened to be sitting right outside Ukraine's territory.

Meanwhile, our fine Russian posters, and their right-wing fellow travelers will post even more gaslighting garbage about events.  (It will be of some interest to see whether Fox News bothers to provide any remotely decent coverage of unfolding events, or if it will be content with creating soundbytes for RT while simultaneously conducting an in-depth investigation of immense journalistic concern into the exact font on the menu of the restaurant where Vice-President Harris and Secretary Clinton had lunch seven years ago.)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-returning-some-troops-to-base-after-drills-interfax-says

"Russia Says Some Troops Are Returning to Base After Drills"

US equity futures up 1.3% on this news.

Great news, if true. I will be quite happy to have my expectations proven wrong.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/IMatviyishyn/status/1493622371437133835

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Big if true….but trusting the Sun? That’s a gigantic leap of faith.

I certainly wouldn't trust the Sun, either. However, I will observe that President Biden has rescheduled his speech from 3:30PM EST to 8:30PM EST. That changes it from 12:30AM to 3:30AM in Kyiv.
Edited to correct: he spoke at 3:30PM EST after all, speech was not delayed.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1493702377744048129

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/nigroeneveld/status/1493760607287451648

So far, no invasion from Russia, which is for the best, I hope it continues.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The Russian invasion date is most likely the same date as the date Saddam will attack with his WMD.

14th-16th have been seen as likely time for an invasion because Putin got forces into position immediately prior, and because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations), and because it's generally viewed as sub-optimal to keep invasion forces in the field (especially in winter) for longer than necessary.

If there is no invasion later today, then either Putin has decided against one (which would be hopeful but seem unlikely) or he/his government have decided they're willing to wait and attack at a less-optimal time.

In the meantime, we've had a legal rationale presented by the Duma's request to Putin re: the Donbass, and now we're seeing the Russian government talking up what looks like preparation for a false flag attack or other provocation:
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1493909167500931074

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

All those damn Euros think about is their bank accounts. Some Russian dude said taking away SWIFT was almost as bad as nuking Moscow, and in effect a declaration of war. And what percentage of the population has a clue what SWIFT is? The media assumes that percentage is co-extensive with being literate, since they assume that we all know what is means.  Apparently bank green eye shade types know what it means, and that is has something to do with their paycheck being drawn against good funds. See below.

"European lenders have expressed concern that banning Russia from SWIFT would mean that billions of dollars of outstanding loans they have in Russia would not be repaid."

SWIFT is really just a messaging system.  If Russia does get cut off from SWIFT they can switch to the PRC version of SWIFT that they have been developing and further push Russia into the economic grip of the PRC.  Still SWIFT is sort of a MAD weapon where both Russia and EU lose big time if Russia is shut off from SWIFT mostly due to impact on the energy trade.  Taking it off the table publically is still bad as now Russia knows how far you are willing to go which is not very far.

Wasn't it already off the table weeks ago?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The top headline on RIA right now is "The LNR reported a significant aggravation of the situation on the contact line." Meanwhile, IntelDoge on Twitter is reporting that people saying they live in Donetsk on Discord and Telegram are reporting the sounds of explosions.

Of course:
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1494199634180415489

Now, I think it's extremely unlikely this means an invasion is starting or even imminent. I think what is probably happening is that the Kremlin knows the clock is ticking if it wants to do anything on a grand scale and they need to get their justification out of the way so they can say "go" whenever it best suits them if they so choose, whether that be tomorrow, a few days from now, or next week. Alternately, they can still de-escalate if they choose. It's just one more roadblock out of the way for a hypothetical major escalation.

Along similar lines:
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1494176076842651656
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1494173032360947713

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

First "casualties":

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1494791327724281873

Hardly the first. Per Wikipedia, thousands have been injured or killed since Putin invaded Ukraine seven years ago.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1495108893881548809

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1495284771630587906

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

What are the odds that, due to the terms of the (hypothetical) summit, we see Return of the Little Green Men?

Putin will claim that he (aka Russia) absolutely has not invaded Ukraine. If there's been any armed forces on territory Ukraine claims, they're certainly not from the Russian military, just independent-minded folks  who happen to have Russian military hardware. Probably freedom-loving Ukrainians with Ukrainian hardware, actually.  Putin has already launched an investigation into the matter, and he'll be glad to publicly share the results in six months once the investigation is completed. Surely Biden and the West aren't a bunch of liars who are going to cancel a summit just because some people who have no connection to Russia at all are fighting Nazis in Ukraine?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

That would be the German Green Party you can thank for making their country more heavily dependent on Russian-sourced energy. It would not surprise me if you dug into their finances you see some funds coming from Russia.

Leaving the fact aside that I have been personally acquainted with the German Greens' last three treasurers, I would like to point out that Annalena Baerbock had always been vocally opposed to Nord Stream 2 and subject to Russian desinformation campaigns during the 2021 election (https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/russland-mischt-sich-in-wahlkampf-ein-gezielte-diffamierung-von-annalena-baerbock/27291998.html). That would make Russian foreign policy rather schizophrenic and self-defeating wouldn't it? Also, the current exit from nuclear energy was passed by a CDU/FDP government led by Angela Merkel in 2011 (the Greens weren't opposed to that decision though, of course).

While I would be willing to concede that it is a valid opinion to hold that a simultanous exit from nuclear, coal, and (particularly Russian) gas as the Greens are proposing it is unrealistic, you are starting to delve into conspiracy theories here that could be considered equally unrealistic, if not more so.

I think Angela Merkel adopted her decision on power nuclear exit after the Fukushima accident, which caused an understandable wave of concern in public opinion. On the other hand, the European Commission recently adopted the decision to declare gas and nuclear power sustainable. Such declaration has been labeled as "greenwashing". I'd like to remark nevertheless the highly positive influence of the German Greens in public opinion, to the point a centre-right politician like Ursula von der Leyen states her great sensibility on climate action and environment

https://www.dw.com/en/european-commission-declares-nuclear-and-gas-to-be-green/a-60614990

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen cannot repeat often enough how close stepping up climate action is to her heart.

She described the European Green Deal as "Europe's man on the moon moment." She has called climate neutrality "our European destiny." And she solemnly proclaimed that no effort will be spared for Europe to become the world's first continent with net-zero emissions.

But as often, the devil is in the detail (...)  

Of course the devil is in the detail, because "lower carbon emissions" is not neccessarilly equivalent to "sustainable energy". While it's legitimate to discuss whether nuclear power and gas can be used as "transitional" sources, declaring them "sustainable" is as misleading as talking about "Green Capitalism"

Regarding collusions between German politicians and Russian interests,  I think targeting the German Greens is incredibly dumb and misguided. You don't need too much research to find out that, after exiting chancellorship, Gerhard Schroeder started a succesful career as Gazprom lobbyst

Even that is a bit of an understatement. From earlier this month:
Former German Chancellor Schröder nominated for Gazprom board

Gazprom published an official list of nominees on Friday, saying the names would be voted on in June during a shareholders' meeting in Saint Petersburg.

The news came a week after Schröder — a long-time friend of Vladimir Putin and who holds senior positions at Nord Stream and Rosneft — made headlines by saying on his podcast that Ukraine, not Russia, was "saber-rattling."

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1496430943111942147

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Seeing talk about a "Ghost of Kyiv" - a Mig-29 fighter pilot who has allegedly taken down 4 Russian planes around Kyiv today. If true, Ukraine's got themselves one of the first genuine fighter aces in a long time.

Just one more from ace-dom.

If the Ghost is real, they may be there already:
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497017441288916994

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Thread by Estonian member of the European Parliment and former head of Estonian armed forces:

https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537207036518402

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I know BRTD said this but am I the only one else thinking Rubio is way more based now?

For all that he was giving every sign of being on the wrong side of this a week ago, his public presence since the war started has been very good. I haven't seen similar behavior from any other member of Congress, from either side of the aisle.