Why do Westchester and Nassau vote so differently?

[King of Kensington]

Westchester has more liberal elites, more transplants, more Ivy grads etc.  Nassau is more insular "New Yawkish."

Nassau's Jewish population is more Orthodox and traditional than Westchester's.

[King of Kensington]

Read somewhere on Twitter (can't find it) that said something like Long Island boomers who went to Ivy League schools and elite colleges moved to Westchester, while white ethnic boomers who grew up the outer boroughs moved to LI.

[King of Kensington]

Places like Bergen County, Nassau, etc. should be much more Democratic than they currently are. Without knowing the ethnic composition of Whites, Bergen, Nassau, Suffolk, Ocean and Monmouth, and Staten Island should all be 10ish points more Dem than they actually are. It's definitely the Italians voting unusually Republican that boosts the GOP.

Look at Montgomery County, PA. It's 72% White and 62-36 Biden. Nassau is 56% White and 54-44, Bergen is 53% White and 59-39. There's some education differences driving that, but Nassau and Bergen are also quite educated. It's the Italian vote being 20+%
more Republican than the WASPs that causes this. This is despite a much higher reformed Jewish vote that raises the Democratic share among Whites.

I do agree that it seems that WASPs got realigned before Italians went in the other direction though. However, when there are odd shifts in NYC area counties that are heavily Italian, it's probably the Italians that are driving those shifts.

One thing is that Italians aren't really WWC. What makes the shifts odd is that as other wealthier White groups went strongly Dem, Italians shifted GOP. While they aren't as educated as WASPs, they are by no means WWC. They just behave like it, which is very interesting to me.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=532803.msg8904907#msg8904907

This is a good point.  There's something about the Italian vote in the NYC area.  And in certain suburbs Orthodox Jews.

Westchester seems to be the exception here, it votes how it "should" given its demographics.

[King of Kensington]

Nassau has some pretty distinctive cultural geography that defies the "culturally liberal" D trend of affluent suburban counties.

The largely Italian American South Shore which is moderately educated and fairly high income, lots of tradespeople and small business owners.

The Orthodox Jewish Five Towns and Persian Great Neck

There's also Garden City.  It votes more R than one would expect given demographics.

[King of Kensington]

As someone who lives in the NYC area, it's def a cultural self-sorting thing and because of Italians.

Agree there's obvious cultural self-sorting.  A liberal-minded journalist is going to opt for Westchester.  A conservative-minded orthodontist is going to opt for Nassau.

The share of Italians isn't all that different between Nassau and Westchester though.

[King of Kensington]

Born in other state

Westchester  140,049  14%
Nassau  72,200  5.2%

[King of Kensington]

2021 ACS 1-year estimates.

Keep in mind that Yonkers and Mount Vernon make up about 25% of Westchester's population and they're working class cities without many transplants.  It's likely lower in towns with a more explicit "ethnic" character like Scarsdale (Jewish) or Eastchester (Italian).  In places like Larchmont, Rye or Pound Ridge it's almost certainly quite a bit higher than the county average.

[King of Kensington]

Since 2008, Nassau has been a pretty consistent 53-54% D, 45% R (dropping to 51% when the third party vote was up in 2016).  It's pretty much alone among affluent suburban counties where Trump has performed at roughly the same level as Romney.

[King of Kensington]

Is Nassau an outlier or is it more due to the ethnic composition of whites in the NYC area?

If you look at say Bergen County - it's more R than demographics would suggest as well. 

[King of Kensington]

So it's the Italian vote throughout the area who are more R than expected, and in certain pockets bloc voting by Orthodox Jews (Five Towns, Lakewood).  

Even Westchester would probably be voting more like Montgomery County, Maryland if not for the Italians of Yonkers, Eastchester and Harrison.

[King of Kensington]

R vote since 2000.

Nassau

2000  38.46%
2004  46.63%
2008  45.43%
2012  45.64%
2016  45.13%
2020  44.59%

Suffolk

2000  41.99%
2004  48.53%
2008  46.53%
2012  47.48%
2016  51.46%
2020  49.3%

Westchester

2000  37.46%
2004  40.33%
2008  35.79%
2012  36.84%
2016  31.2%
2020  31.3%

Bergen

2000  41.65%
2004  47.43%
2008  44.75%
2012  43.8%
2016  41.57%
2020  41.06%


The 9/11 boost was more modest in Westchester

R vote has been pretty stable in LI but has gone down in Westchester and Bergen since 2004

[King of Kensington]

And Westchester is more D than it was in 2000, Bergen about the same.  LI has become more R since then.

[King of Kensington]

College graduates (White, Not Hispanic or Latino)

Westchester  65.7%
Fairfield  61.5%
Somerset  60.7%
Morris  58.8%
Bergen  56.1%
Hunterdon  55.7%
Nassau  55.5%
Monmouth  53.5%
Putnam  47.5%
Suffolk  45.3%
Rockland  44.3%
Dutchess  44.1%
Middlesex  42.3%
Ocean  33.1%

[King of Kensington]

Italian is the most common European ancestry in the NYC region and one can detect a distinctive Italian American voting pattern.  Rather than simply melting in the suburbs, the suburbs themselves "Italian-ized" so to speak

[King of Kensington]

Makes sense.  Garden City is predominantly Catholic, and still quite Republican for an affluent suburb in the Trump era.  But not surprised it's levelled off.   There's probably some self-selection keep it conservative.

Romney probably did better among Conservative and Reform Jews I suspect as well (the Roslyn type places).  While Orthodox community has become even more R and increased their share of the electorate.