Canadian by-elections 2023

[King of Kensington]

Laura Mae Lindo, MPP for Kitchener Centre, is leaving politics.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/kitchener-centre-mpp-laura-mae-lindo-stepping-down-1.6718233

It's certainly not a safe NDP seat.  This will be the first test of Marit Stiles' leadership.  The seat is held federally by Green MP Mike Morrice, and Ontario Green leader Mike Schreiner represents nearby Guelph.  

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa Centre:

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/naqvi-takes-another-step-toward-running-for-ontario-liberal-leader-1.6312918

[King of Kensington]

From their vantage point (we have no chance and it's going NDP or Green), there was nothing at stake so why bother?

[King of Kensington]

Not just demoralization among the base, but a sense among the electorate that "the NDP doesn't have their act together."

Should say the outgoing MPP, Laura Mae Lindo, strongly supported Sarah Jama.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if Councillor Josh Matlow or former MPP Dr. Eric Hoskins will be running.

[King of Kensington]

There's some talk about St. Paul's being a "test" of the UN vote (it has the fourth largest Jewish population in the country).  

But the area is quite left of center now.  The Liberals survived in 2011, and in the 2018 provincial election the PCs came in third.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if Councillor Josh Matlow or former MPP Dr. Eric Hoskins will be running.

The Liberals have already nominated some woman whose name escapes me so no dice on either of those people.

Article is paywalled (I subscribe to Hill Times) but it mentions potential Hoskins and Matlow candidacies

https://www.hilltimes.com/story/2023/12/18/toronto-st-pauls-byelection-will-be-the-first-test-of-jewish-voters-reaction-to-canadas-un-vote-on-israel-hamas-war-say-political-insiders/406291/

[King of Kensington]

There's likely a segment that wants to "send a message" to the Liberals.  But I don't think the "pro-Israel" demographic is strong enough in St. Paul's to have a "Mount Royal '11" situation for example (and Mount Royal is probably more comparable to Eglinton-Lawrence). 

[King of Kensington]

There's a secondary Jewish population cluster around Wychwood Barns-Hillcrest Park-Humewood (these census tracts are around 20% Jewish).  The Jewish population has actually grown quite significantly in the past decade or two - presumably it's attractive because it's located near both Bathurst-Eglinton and more central neighborhoods like the Annex.  This area is politically progressive.

[King of Kensington]

Jewish population by riding, 2021

Thornhill  34,775  30.5%
Mount Royal  27,665  25.9%
Eglinton-Lawrence  25,520  22.2%
St. Paul's  17,280  15.1%
York Centre  15,300  14.3%
Outremont  12,125  12%
NDG-Westmount  10,295  9.9%
Pierrefonds-Dollard  8,480  7.8%
University-Rosedale  7,115  6.9%
Don Valley West  6,345  6.3%
Winnipeg South Centre  5,920  6.3%
King-Vaughan  8,750  5.9%
Saint Laurent  5,540  5.5%

Jews are at least 20% of the population in three ridings, seven ridings (Westmount close enough) are at least one tenth Jewish.

[King of Kensington]

Only 1/3 of the Jews in St. Paul's live in the three census tracts that make up Forest Hill and adjacent Cedarvale.  The other 2/3 live in more mixed areas where the Conservatives do poorly.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals easily won by-elections in two "establishmentarian" ridings recently, NDG-Westmount and Winnipeg South Centre.

Re: NDG-Westmount and St. Paul's, you get a kind of "Westmount" vibe around Avenue Rd. and St. Clair and an "NDG vibe" around Vaughan Rd. or Wychwood.