Alberta election 2023

[King of Kensington]

Does anyone have popular vote for Calgary and Edmonton from the last election (or better yet last two elections)?

[King of Kensington]

Comparing with the major centres in 2021 election (Elections Canada website).

CPC + PPC vote:

Calgary  61.6%
Edmonton  56.2%

So 9 point difference between UCP and CPC/PPC vote in Calgary, and 21 points in Edmonton.

[King of Kensington]

It does seem federally Tories tend to do better in Alberta than provincially so any reason for that as that was case even before you had more crazy ones like Danielle Smith?  Never mind Harper and Scheer were probably more conservative than most Alberta PC leaders and similar to Kenney.

It's a vote for the "party of Alberta" (the CPC).  Provincially people feel more free to choose among parties.

[King of Kensington]

In neighboring Saskatchewan, the Saskatchewan Party vote lines up pretty closely with CPC vote.  But it's a much more "natural" small-c conservative demographic.  Calgary and Edmonton vote rather conservatively at the federal level largely for regional grievance reasons.  I suspect if they were US states, Alberta would be a purple state and Sask a red state.  It's quite telling that it's very difficult to see an NDP path to victory in Saskatchewan.

[King of Kensington]

Pales in comparison to Canada though.  US voting is much more demographically-driven.

[King of Kensington]

Danielle Smith is really out there, consorting with anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists:

https://www.bugeyedandshameless.com/p/danielle-smiths-magical-mystery-media?sd=pf

[King of Kensington]

Yes election will be won in Calgary and Danielle Smith is a horrible fit there.

[King of Kensington]

From RidingBuilder I can find the following:

Calgary:

2015
NDP: 147,169 (34%)
PC: 136,152 (31%)
WRP: 98,037 (23%)
ALP: 31,171 (7%)
ABP: 14,914 (3%)
GRN: 3,503 (1%)
OTH: 1,689 (0%)

2019
UCP: 295,005 (53%)
NDP: 188,729 (34%)
ABP: 52,729 (10%)
ALP: 10,951 (2%)
GRN: 3,405 (1%)
OTH: 3,942 (1%)


Edmonton:

2015
NDP: 219,154 (65%)
PC: 68,792 (20%)
WRP: 27,931 (8%)
ALP: 18,916 (6%)
ABP: 3,114 (1%)
GRN: 664 (0%)
OTH: 640 (0%)

2019
NDP: 213,546 (53%)
UCP: 140,672 (35%)
ABP: 40,108 (10%)
OTH: 5,928 (1%)
ALP: 3,969 (1%)
GRN: 1,960 (0%)

Interesting that the NDP vote share in Calgary remained the same in 2019.

[King of Kensington]

Danielle Smith is, bar none, the nuttiest Canadian Premier in my lifetime:

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she wants a “blanket amnesty” for residents charged with violating public health restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and, in what one expert called a nod to conspiracy theories, to cut ties between the province’s health authority and the World Economic Forum.

Smith has spent much of her time in her new position as premier railing against decisions made during the pandemic, moves she was also a loud critic of as a radio host and UCP leadership contestant.

The new premier has already pledged never to lock down again, come under fire for suggesting unvaccinated people were the most discriminated-against group she’d ever seen, and promised to protect unvaccinated people under the Alberta Human Rights Act.

Smith’s latest step in ripping the provincial government away from its past record of health restrictions was delivered Friday during an internet livestream with the Western Standard just minutes after announcing her new cabinet picks.

“I believe that Alberta Health Services is the source of a lot of the problems that we’ve had,” she said.

“They signed some kind of partnership with the World Economic Forum right in the middle of the pandemic; we’ve gotta address that. Why in the world do we have anything to do with the World Economic Forum? That’s got to end.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/10/21/danielle-smith-puts-her-stamp-on-alberta-cabinet-signalling-a-new-direction-for-the-united-conservatives.html

[King of Kensington]

The south end/south side tend to be the more affluent side in the Prairie cities.

[King of Kensington]

What this likely means is that the NDP needs to expand its base to more than just narrow interest groups such as unions and the insular & estoric hard-left, but it doesn't seem to be willing to do that for ideological reasons.

Is that really true of the Alberta NDP though? Rachel Notley seems to be about as successful as a "prairie populist" as one can be these days.

[King of Kensington]

The Manitoba NDP has been the big-tent center-left party for more than half a century.  I'd say Horgan did the same with the BC NDP.  BC had really strong class-based voting through the 1990s.  But Horgan broke the juggernaut.  It's not the labor-based socialists vs. the free enterprise coalition anymore, Horgan transformed the BC NDP into a big-tent center-left party as well.

[King of Kensington]

Regarding the three Greater Vancouver ridings held by the NDP, Jagmeet Singh's riding isn't totally safe NDP. I haven't looked at the riding redistribution and New Westminster is certainly fertile ground for the NDP, union working class, but if it weren't for Peter Julian the Liberals would likely be much more competitive.  Bonita Zarrillo just won in 2021 but it was also competitive.

There also seems to be a GTA-ization of voting patterns in Greater Vancouver. 

[King of Kensington]

Has anyone tallied up the popular vote in Calgary and Edmonton?

[King of Kensington]

Thank you, I think you mean UCP though.

[King of Kensington]

I find it a bit striking that even with three quarters of MLAs in Calgary and Edmonton voting NDP, that's still not enough for the NDP to win government given the UCP dominance of the "remainder" (granted I know there's some sort of exurban seats around Edmonton that are very conservative).