French presidential election, 2022 (user search)
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Author Topic: French presidential election, 2022  (Read 129560 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,056


« on: April 12, 2022, 10:21:33 AM »
« edited: April 12, 2022, 12:08:57 PM by King of Kensington »



I don't want to get too sidetracked into Jewish voting patterns around the world, but i should point out that the "pro-Israel" swing to the right in Jewish parts of Montreal, Toronto, or Orthodox parts of Brooklyn etc...do not exactly fit the "affluence" pattern. The Orthodox Jews who support Trump are generally very low income...and ditto for the ultra orthodox enclaves in Canada that might hypothetically support extreme right candidates. The ultra orthodox tend to have large families and often times no one makes any money since the men just study the Torah all day and live off handouts. Poverty is a big problem. The enclaves where there are a lot of very affluent Jews (i.e. Beverly Hills, the upper east side etc...) won't touch Trump with a ten foot poll. In the 2014 Toronto mayoral election, the affluent Jewish areas of Toronto pretty overwhelmingly preferred John "noblesse oblige" Tory over Doug "rightwing populist" Ford.

Your perception of Beverly Hills is a few decades out of date.  It's not mostly made up of liberal Ashkenazi Jews and people in Hollywood etc. anymore.  It's about 25% Iranian Jewish and is actually very conservative and "Trumpy" by L.A. standards.

In Montreal, the Hasidim live in Outremont.  Hampstead/Cote St. Luc are where the Conservative, Modern Orthodox and traditional Sephardim live.  Westmount is where affluent, liberally minded Jews live (you'll find a similar Jewish demographic in Toronto's St. Paul's riding).


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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,056


« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2022, 10:32:10 AM »

Zemmour fundamentally appeals to voters who formed the core of the FN back in the 80s (and you could even go back all the way to Poujadism if you're so inclined). Basically small-business owner who are doing a decent living but hate having to pay taxes and hate immigrants, along with Pieds-noirs and people culturally affiliated with them, and a certain kind of hyper-reactionary high bourgeoisie. It is, in short, a deeply ideological far-right vote.

Le Pen's current voter base, by contrast, is much more #populist Purple heart and concentrated in the lower-middle class and France's Average Jacques in mid-sized and small cities and exurbia. It's the quintessential vote of "peripheral France" which feels it's on the losing side of globalization.

Zemmour has an orthodox conservative economic program.  Rejecting that and having "populist" economics appeals more to the working class.  It's also why Zemmour overperformed among the very rich.
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