Canadian by-elections 2021-2022 (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections 2021-2022  (Read 17548 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040


« on: December 12, 2022, 10:10:49 PM »

This is a very poor showing for the CPC.  Closer to Canadian Alliance level of support than what the CPC usually gets in the riding.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,040


« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2022, 12:09:58 AM »
« Edited: December 14, 2022, 12:15:30 AM by King of Kensington »

That approval I think is worse than his national number, which itself isn't that good except when compared against Trudeau. Then they say that PP's Conservative Party doesn't see these types of seats as a path to forming (minority, cause I really struggle to see them get anywhere without Legault coercing the Bloc) government. Instead their focus is on small-towns or traditional marginals in the West far from the Laurentian bubble.

Now is this a correct strategy or spin? That's more up for debate.

I really don't see the logic of this apparent Tory strategy of winning the next election while giving up on any new seats in Quebec or the GTA. The fact is the Tories are already almost maxxed out on seats in the rest of the country they could conceivably win. To form government after the next election they need to gain about 40-50 seats. They already have virtually every single rural seat in Ontario and the west. Sure you could hypothetically name half a dozen NDP seats in northern Ontario or coastal BC that the Tories could conceivably pick up - but that is only a handful of seats. Sure they might pick up three or four more rural seats from the Libs in Atlantic Canada - but where do they go from there? There simply isn't much low hanging fruit for them after that

Bringing the PPC vote back just means winning seats in the wrong places, and not winning where it counts.

It could do Charlie Angus in though in blue collar populist Timmins-James Bay for example.

But yeah, no path to the victory without Quebec or the GTA.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,040


« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2022, 12:12:42 AM »

I wonder if King-Vaughan will stay with the CPC.  It's more Italian Canadian/Russian "new money", in contrast to the more "old money WASP" lakeshore suburban ridings.
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