Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

Popular vote in BC:

Interior and North

Conservatives  266,459  47%
NDP  118,985  21%
Liberals  115,350  20.3%
Greens  50,417  8.8%

Lower Mainland

Conservatives  428,769  32.3%
Liberals  422,040  31.8%
NDP  314,015  23.7%
Greens  117,415  8.8%

Vancouver Island

NDP  150,437  31.2%
Greens  130,021  27%
Conservatives  116,262  24.1%
Liberals  76,739  15.9%

BC seems to have a pretty distinct political culture, and hard to say it shares much with the Prairies these days.  Lower Mainland includes the conservative Fraser Valley, Liberals almost certainy ahead in Metro Vancouver.  Vancouver Island is rather unique in that the Liberals are the fourth party and third party for "progressives", it is both progressive and anti-Liberal.

[King of Kensington]

I would describe PEI as more traditional Red Tory in likes of Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  They have a Tory premier who is very popular.  Federally Tories do poorly there as right wing populism doesn't sell there and party seen as too much like Reform Party.  So I would argue Liberal strength there is more due to dislike of alternatives.  In many ways it is your communitarian conservative area in culture and that style of conservatism is largely absent in federal Tories but Liberals in many ways have elements that can appeal to those types.

Yeah PEI is more "traditional" and Vancouver Island more "counter-cultural."

[King of Kensington]

"Western alienation" doesn't seem to be much of a thing in South Burnaby.  When Jagmeet Singh moved there to run a small number may have objected to him being a parachute candidate, but nobody seemed to object on the grounds that he's an "easterner" who "doesn't get the West."

[King of Kensington]

Canada in many ways is becoming more like US with less of an East vs. West divide but more coasts vs. interior.  Even US actually did at one time sort of have divide, after all in 1976, Carter won almost all the states east of the Mississippi, while Ford dominated most of the Western states, even West Coast. 

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 


 

[King of Kensington]

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

Yes SW Ontario a bit "Michigan"-like but a far larger share of the population of Ontario lives in the GTHA.  Ontario is more comparable to New York State or maybe Illinois than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in terms of urbanization, diversity and politics.  Not to mention NYS is also super-rust belty outside its dominant metro area.

[King of Kensington]

Population density:

Southern Ontario  263 / sq. mile
Michigan  174 / sq. mile
Lower Michigan  240 / sq. mile
Illinois  232 / sq. mile
Wisconsin  105 / sq. mile
Minnesota  69 / sq. mile

[King of Kensington]

While cannot give out information as paywalled, Nanos shows NDP at record heights and Tories record lows.  Both within margin of error.  Frank Graves tweeted earlier two tied at 22% but not enough to give accurate sample.  So does play into my idea Canada is seeing a big shift left and the shift left is unique to Canada as there isn't a country on earth where right has less than 25% support.  Now doubt most aren't as bad as Tories, but also most countries have a certain level who always vote right wing.

NDP at record heights ? Meaning...above the 30% they received in 2011?  Also the NDP polled in the high 30s in the late 1980s under Broadbent and going into the 2015 election.

[King of Kensington]

Carney not running in next election but doesn't rule out future run:

https://twitter.com/DavidWCochrane/status/1417554694566731780

[King of Kensington]

Ibbitson:

The Liberals appear to be on the brink of a majority government. They need 15 seats to do it. They could pick up a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Québécois remain strong in Quebec and the Liberals are already dominant in urban Ontario – but a seat here, a seat there...

The Liberals’ best hope lies in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, where there were a number of close races last time out. But the NDP is running neck and neck with the Liberals in B.C. If Mr. Trudeau is limited to a second minority government, it may be Mr. Singh, not Mr. O’Toole, who does the limiting.

In every election, Liberals warn that supporting the NDP could split the progressive vote and elect Conservatives. That appeal often works. But if it is clear that the Conservatives are not going to win, progressives can support whoever appeals to them, and right now many find Mr. Singh appealing.

The Liberals are confident of victory, and optimistic about their chances of securing a second majority government. The Conservatives are well funded and Mr. O’Toole is likely, at the very least, to solidify the core Tory vote of around 31 per cent. The NDP could make gains. And some or all of that could turn to dust, based on events, dear boy, events.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-if-justin-trudeau-doesnt-win-a-majority-in-the-next-election-jagmeet/

[King of Kensington]

Pierre Poilievre has found his true calling as a lumber salesman

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1418888684343111686

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet numbers aren't catastrophic but not great for the Tories.  They're well ahead in the Prairies but there's little room for gain.  Liberals leading in B.C.  Ontario is interestingly competitive.  In Quebec, Liberals are well ahead of the Bloc.

[King of Kensington]

Election Prediction Project is up and running again:

http://electionprediction.org/2021_fed/index.php

[King of Kensington]

As expected, the NDP nominated Alejandra Bravo, Director of Leadership and Training at the Broadbent Institute, as their candidate for Davenport.  She ran three times for city council in the northern part of the riding and came close.  Just about the lowest hanging fruit for the NDP of any riding in the country. 

[King of Kensington]

Yikes

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/08/01/erin-otoole-approaches-an-election-with-a-party-so-fractured-that-some-conservatives-want-him-to-lose.html

[King of Kensington]

A majority of the NDP caucus is again from the West, but BC dominates and Saskatchewan is shut out.  Oddly looks like 1962.

[King of Kensington]

A rebuttal to Andrew Coyne from a prominent Canadian political scientist:

https://twitter.com/regwhit1/status/1423792889566429190

[King of Kensington]

Cancelling Spadina Expressway, TVOntario, community colleges...what a legacy!

[King of Kensington]

Adam Vaughan is calling it quits

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/adam-vaughan-not-running-again-1.6134329

[King of Kensington]

Vaughan retiring seems to have given a boost of encouragement to the NDP.  Spadina-Fort York is a young riding and Singh polls well among young voters.  Still it's a 36 point gap to close, so it's more about a strong performance than actually winning it.  The NDP is running school trustee Norm Di Pasquale there.

[King of Kensington]

Vaughan retiring seems to have given a boost of encouragement to the NDP.  Spadina-Fort York is a young riding and Singh polls well among young voters.  Still it's a 36 point gap to close, so it's more about a strong performance than actually winning it.  The NDP is running school trustee Norm Di Pasquale there.

Not sure how much pull school trustees have in an overwhelmingly young riding tbh, but the NDP probably has smarter targets to go for. Spadina-Fort York has a significant "bourgeois left" element that leans more Liberal than NDP.

If I were to rank NDP targets in Toronto Davenport is clearly #1.  Parkdale-High Park and Danforth are next (PHP probably a bit ahead of Danforth now in spite of "tradition").  Then the likelihood of winning gets much lower beyond that.  The "downtown three" would be next (all have voted similarly in general elections since 2015).  Then Beaches-East York a bit below that.

[King of Kensington]

Agreed.  In fact Erskine Smith won with the biggest margin of any MP in the history of Beaches-East York.

Danforth, also seems to be a bit "inflated" in importance because of its illustrious NDP history.  Last time the Layton nostalgia had likely faded and it voted more in line with what you'd expect in the era of Justin Trudeau.  The east end is less young and renter-heavy than the west end.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting that the NDP has chosen Cheryl Hardcastle as their candidate in Windsor-Tecumseh, given she was a big part of the reason why she lost. It might not matter though.

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

If O'Toole's "blue collar strategy" actually goes anywhere (so far no evidence it's resonating at all) Windsor-Tecumseh is the kind of seat they could take.

[King of Kensington]

This is a pretty stunning statement:

Here is a mildly shocking implication of our recent polling . If these numbers hold up it may explain why Pierre Poilievre is vigorously campaigning . And Erin O'Toole. There are literally no safe CPC seats in Ontario right now . #1993

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1425281814625718282

[King of Kensington]

Frank Graves deleted the post.

Even if the CPC was at 20% in Ontario I think they'd still win some seats.  In 90s situation was different with Reform and PCs evenly split, allowing Liberals to win rural seats with vote splits.

[King of Kensington]

With the Liberals ahead of the Tories in Ontario by 13 points, the NDP would likely end up with few new seats there even with 22% province-wide.