Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

Michelle Rempel is defying the leadership line on Canada Day celebrations:

https://twitter.com/MichelleRempel/status/1408598707059118081

[King of Kensington]

Back in 2013 Ibbitson and Bricker wrote a book called Big shift which more or less argued 2011 was permanent re-alignment and Tories would become natural governing party.  Looks like they were dead wrong.  Obviously over next century, lots can happen ranging from following.

1.  Tories win about half the time which in last 30-40 years that is about what it has been
2.  Liberals retain their dominance as natural governing party with occasional Tory wins when Liberals overstay welcome, but more like most of 20th century
3.  Tories become a perennial third party and swap roles with NDP and win some seats but never form government again.

Which will happen too early but the idea of Tories becoming new natural governing party was silly.  Canada has always had a centre-left lean and will occasionally tilts right, polls have pretty much without exception since 2000 shown fairly centrist, but more lean left than lean right thus Tories becoming natural governing party was really always a pipe dream.  Maybe possible long term but was going to be an uphill battle.

It sure was.  The GTA and Lower Mainland have really trended away from the Conservatives.

[King of Kensington]

It is a mostly rural riding yes, but the Kingston to Belleville corridor, basically the United Empire Loyalist heartland has trended Liberal big time in recent elections. I'm not 100% sure why; I suspect there's been a demographic shift - maybe upper middle class retirees moving into the area?

ETA: a cursory google search confirms that it is indeed an area that is experiencing a growth in the number of retirees moving there.

Kingston is almost like the Canadian Burlington, Vermont or something.  Very progressive city with a somewhat similar vibe, and the surrounding exurbs have a "culturally liberal" character too (Queen's profs, retired professionals etc.).  They voted NDP in the last provincial election, not PC like most rural and exurban areas.  

And yes quite the difference between west of Kingston which seems to be "Loyalist Red Tory" and the area to the east which is much more conservative (Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark).  I assume less Toronto influence and maybe lower population density play a role as well?  

[King of Kensington]

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

To generalize, Eastern Ontario is more "traditional" Anglo Canadian conservative, while Western Ontario is more socially conservative, evangelical and German/Dutch. 

[King of Kensington]

The funny thing is Erin O'Toole seems (on paper at least) like a good fit for both "traditional" cultural conservatism of the Maritimes and Eastern Ontario as well as for the rust belt.  But he's not getting any traction. 

[King of Kensington]

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

To generalize, Eastern Ontario is more "traditional" Anglo Canadian conservative, while Western Ontario is more socially conservative, evangelical and German/Dutch.  

Eastern Ontario also has more farmers as opposed to Western Ontario, which is dominated by (often unionized) resource industries like lumber and mining.

That would be Northern Ontario.  The primary division in the province is between thinly populated, resource-based North and densely populated Southern Ontario.  More than 90% of the population lives in Southern Ontario, in about 12% of the land area.

Western (or Southwestern) Ontario and Eastern Ontario are subregions of Southern Ontario.  That's what we're comparing.  

[King of Kensington]

Renfrew is a bit different from the rest of rural Eastern Ontario, with its largely Catholic population (Irish, French and Polish) and distinctive accent.  It was Catholic "ancestral Liberal" until about 20 years ago then shifted to the hard right.  If Kingston and environs is Ontario's Vermont, Renfrew is its rural Pennsylvania or something.

[King of Kensington]

That part of rural Ontario has a more "New England" vibe, as opposed to the small towns in southwestern Ontario which feel more "midwestern". There are also a lot of retirees living in the Bay of Quinte-Kingston corridor, and this Liberal government has proven fairly popular with the elderly.

I would agree with this.  SW Ontario is the Michigan of Ontario, and the Northumberland to Kingston area is more "New Englandesque."  Rural areas east of Kingston - not sure what US comparison is.

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa = NOVA

Renfrew = West Virginia

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa was a majority-Catholic city for most of its history (though probably not anymore), due to large French and Irish-Catholic populations.  But obviously "old" Ottawa barely exists, few have particularly long-time roots in the area and it votes like a national capital and fairly diverse city.

[King of Kensington]

This ancestral voting pattern thing gets pretty interesting when you look across Canada. In Saskatchewan, the Ukrainian/Eastern-Central European areas were more pro-CCF/NDP, while the WASP areas were more PC-friendly (and provincial Liberal from 1930s-70s, when the SK PCs were relegated to a rump party). But since the advent of the Sask Party, the end of agrarian socialist politics, and the assimilation of Saskatchewan's Slavs into mainstream Anglo culture, this pattern has vanished. Today, if you're a non-indigenous resident of rural Saskatchewan, you most likely vote CPC/SKP, whether you're a McDonald or a Melnykowski.

And the German-Russian areas (i.e. ethnic Germans from Russia) were even more anti-CCF.  

[King of Kensington]

I think a lot of people would enjoy seeing a Carney-Poilievre race.

[King of Kensington]

On another note, the Carney hype train went full steam when Catherine McKenna vacated her Ottawa Centre seat.

So much for keeping Ottawa Centre in Irish hands!

[King of Kensington]

I gotta say, you have a veeery "Windsor" perspective of Ontario geography lol. I'm originally from the GTA (and therefore always right, bow down to me you provincial heathens and peasants), I'd divide it as:

- The GTA: Just the GTA, no geographic orientation required
- Hamilton/Niagara: Kind of a weird one geographically, I'd just call it Hamilton/Niagara
- Guelph westwards: Southwestern Ontario
- Between Guelph and Peterborough, south of Muskoka, excluding GTA: Central Ontario
- East of Peterborough, south of Pembroke: Eastern Ontario
- Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, Algonquin Park: Cottage country, no man's land
- North of that: Northern Ontario

Northumberland/Kawarthas/Peterborough feel like a transition between eastern and central Ontario.

[King of Kensington]

At the time the Reform Party was nominating candidates in British Columbia the party brass clearly didn't pay a lot of attention and they nominated people like Herb Grubel, an intelligent but fairly extreme reactionary economics professor, Ted White, a generally likeable but fairly flaky engineer who occasionally got a little too close to extremist groups like white nationalists.  (His problem seemed to be that he believed that EVERYBODY deserved to have their views represented) and Randy White an intelligent but volatile management accountant whose outburst before the 2004 election of "to heck with the courts" may have cost the Conservatives the election.

The idea of Herb Grubel and Ted White representing Vancouver's North Shore just seems inconceivable today.  Reform had a strong ultra-right wing reactionary suburbia element.  Even in Calgary these two would be a bad fit today.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting, yes, but not the kind of race you throw a political rookie into if your intention is to get him into a cabinet role asap

Absolutely not.  Maybe they should give him St. Paul's or something.

[King of Kensington]

So in a discussion where the right-wing nature of Eastern Ontario comes up no mention of the MPP for Lanark? I don't think there's a worse elected official in Canada than Randy Hillier.  Not that he'll win or anything (he may not run again). 

[King of Kensington]

Peterborough has K postal codes ("eastern") but is in the 705 area code (central/northern).  It attracts Toronto cottagers but the urban form is rather Eastern Ontario-like.

[King of Kensington]

Northeast BC is rather Northern Alberta-like, and Prince George is rather isolated so will be slow to flip I think. 

[King of Kensington]

Re: Lanark, very integrated with Ottawa - 37% of Lanark workforce works in Ottawa.  But still very right-wing.  Not sure if anyone calculated 2019 results by county but Lanark generally sees the Conservatives at over 50%.

[King of Kensington]

43% in Dufferin County commute to GTA.

https://tinyurl.com/jn4y5zyn

[King of Kensington]

Gotta shore up that vote in Alberta

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/conservatives-fiscal-stabilization-alberta-1.6095232?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar&fbclid=IwAR0keYwZQ985UPHRMwua0VjrKzeq97P7q6mQ1UqN7NaMRhpvYAEklc10kfc

[King of Kensington]

Re: Western alienation

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-has-western-canada-really-been-mistreated/

[King of Kensington]

‘Western’ alienation is just an ideological cover for Alberta/Sask imperialism. BC has complaints from time to time about Ottawa, but they are not those of Kenney, Moe et al. I live almost as far west as you can get and I’m less alienated from Ottawa than from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/regwhit1/status/1414616763610779649

[King of Kensington]

The combined NDP/Green vote was 37% in the last election, higher than the Tories.  The difference as Miles says is more vote-splitting among progressives.  There's a stronger "anti-establishment" left than in Ontario.  I suspect Bernie Sanders would do better in BC than in Ontario.

Vancouver Island, the west beyond the west or the "left coast", is nothing but orange and green - pretty much the opposite of Alberta/Sask.

It's ludicrous to suggest that modern-day BC is some sort of conservative province or Canadian "red state."