Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[King of Kensington]

OK, from my progressive viewpoint: F***

Some other observations:

1. Ford actually under-performed in much of  "Ford Nation" (Raymond Cho and Doug himself being exceptions).  Had the NDP vote not dropped off, they could have won a few seats in Scarborough.

2. Ford did very well in blue collar SW Ontario in spite of the alleged appeal of the "steeltown scrapper" who was supposed to dominate the region (Chatham, Sarnia, even Essex being close) in the region.  Much of the "Hudak went too far" demographic swung back to Ford.

3. NDP made their biggest gains among the "metropolitan left" and highly educated voters and probably did quite well among South Asian and Black voters.  Their "WWC" gains were pretty minimal.

4. My York Region hypothesis proved right, with some very big swings there.  Peel and Durham PC pickups were more based on vote-splitting than romping victories a la York Region.  Also, Oakville proved more Ford-averse than Woodbridge (as I thought it would).

5. Ottawa doesn't like Ford much.

[King of Kensington]

Some NDP pickups, 20+ swings:

Toronto Centre  53.7%  +34.2
Ottawa Centre  46.1%  +25.6
St. Paul's  36%  +25.5
University-Rosedale (new riding) 49.7%  +25.4
Spadina-Fort York  49.7%  +23.0
Scarborough Southwest  45.5%  +21.9
Davenport  60.3%  +20.1

Some PC pickups, 20+ swings:

Etobicoke North  52.5%  +30
King-Vaughan (new riding)  56.6%  +24.3
Vaughan-Woodbridge  50.5%  +23.4
Markham-Unionville  62.4%  +21.6

[King of Kensington]

Some other thoughts:

1) Lol Vaughan-Woodbridge

Yeah, a lot of denial about the state of the OLP where their vote bled left and right.  Another one of those ridiculous "look how well they did last time, how can they possibly lose?" predictions (see also Toronto Centre on the left flank).

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Yeah Ottawa turned out to be the real area for "safe" Liberals.  Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South were the only ridings in the province where they won by wide margins.  I wonder if there's a desire in the Ottawa area to leave Ontario and become an autonomous national capital district.

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Hard to believe that the OLP were once the party of rural SW Ontario.

[King of Kensington]

One interesting thing to note in Durham Region that Whitby really didn't turn out to be that distinctive compared to Ajax and Pickering for NDP vote.  Since these suburbs are all pretty similar (except for Whitby being in the Oshawa CMA) I guess it isn't really surprising.

[King of Kensington]

Also, all the GTA 905 ridings where the PCs got over 50% were in York Region.

[King of Kensington]

Is that observation on behalf of Whitby being underwhelming (which I disagree on), or Ajax/Pickering being surprising?

I was under the impression that they were competitive in Whitby (though Whitby still leaned more to the Tories) but not at all competititive in Ajax/Pickering.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals best results - outside of the hard left Toronto City, were in the 905 and Ottawa. These areas have high family incomes and can best be described as "too left for PC, too wealthy for the NDP." This hurt the NDP. The Tories won their majority on the back of 40%+ pluralities (and 50%+ majorities in a few ridings) in the GTA thanks to the Lib/NDP vote split. If the NDP wants to build itself as the new united-left party for Ontario, they need to do what every party before them has done and appeal to the 905.

Not sure what you mean here - if the PCs got 50%+ of the vote in those ridings how could they have won them "thanks to the Lib/NDP vote split?

If there was any strategic voting going on in the 905 - it sure didn't work.  

Mississauga Centre is a great example of a roughly 40-25-25 split (or more specifically PCs 40.9%, NDP 27.6%, Liberals 25.4%) - and it was pretty hard for voters to figure out how to "stop the PCs."  Yeah it went Liberal in the past - but it's pretty hard to beat the Conservatives if they're over 40%. The NDP vote surged and the Liberal vote sank.  Still, if the NDP becomes a contender for government this is the kind of seat they can win in.

Vaughan-Woodbridge is an example where the anti-Conservative vote did more or less unite - the NDP only rose modestly to 14.5%.  However the PC vote surged and won an outright majority (50.5%), so the Liberals (32%) just got crushed and they certainly can't blame NDP voters for "refusing" to vote strategically for this loss.  This was an epic failure for uniform swing projections and the media.  If the NDP becomes a serious contender for government and the Liberals remain stuck in third this should remain a safe PC seat.

[King of Kensington]

York Region was for the PCs what inner Toronto was for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

How much of a "boost" did people who look like future OLP leadership candidates get compared to the "generic" Liberal vote?  Whether winners like Coteau and Hunter or losers like Del Duca and Naqvi.

[King of Kensington]

I think you forgot to colour in Oakville on the Liberal map. They got 36% there.

Oakville was (I think) the best 905 result for the Liberals and a (relative) weak one for the PCs.  Shades of DVW - affluent riding and clear OLP/PC race, though a little more PC-leaning - or of those Tory-Lib Dem ridings in the UK pre-2015. 

It's funny those browbeating about the "need" for strategic voting for Liberals in Mississauga, Vaughan and Richmond Hill kind of dismissed Oakville as hopelessly lost to the PCs.

[King of Kensington]

However, if the NDP actually attempts to reach the median voter in the Toronto suburbs then there is a good chance swing voters might not break as favorably for the PCs. In 2015 after all, Vaughan-Woodbridge gave the Libs+NDP combined around 53.5% in 2015, and it doesn't look like the riding changed all that much in redistricting. So there are clearly swing voters who would vote against the PC if given the proper appeal.

Vaughan is the epicenter of "blue Liberalism" in Ontario and given how the right-wing flank of the Liberal vote ditched Kathleen Wynne for moving the party too far to the left, it's not surprising how much the PC vote shot up there.  

Just because the combined Lib+NDP vote exceeded 50% doesn't mean it's winnable for a more centrist NDP once the PCs become less popular.  Unless the Liberals die completely and the NDP really morphs into something like the US Democrats.  But the party cultures are different and I expect some seats to turn blue if the NDP becomes the dominant force on the center-left.  Vaughan and other York Region seats are of course the type of places a renewed Liberal Party can win seats if they become a contender again.

[King of Kensington]

Inner Toronto

NDP  208,757  52.6%
Liberals  90,658  22.8%
PCs  75,753  19.1%

Outer Toronto

PCs  283,431  40.5%
Liberals  196,488  28%
NDP  191,423  27.3%

[King of Kensington]

Inner TO = Beaches-East York, Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Spadina-Fort York, St. Paul's, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale; outer TO = the rest.

[King of Kensington]

One Toronto result of note is York Centre, deemed earlier as "both Conservative enough and Ford Nation enough." With its "white ethnic" demographics of Russians, Orthodox Jews and Italians there are some shades of southern Brooklyn and if TO had NYC-type voting patterns it would probably be the most consistently right-wing seat in the city by far.  

The PC candidate was Russian-Jewish and appealed to that demographic that has failed until now to get someone from that community elected.  But what's also notable was the "Ward 9" or "Downsview" part of the riding, which is heavily Italian.  Ford got over 60% of the vote there municipally and this time the area was dominated by the PCs.  They have expanded on their "winning strategy" (well it worked once for the federal Conservatives - harder to do when it was represented by Monte Kwinter provincially) of "let's just focus on Jews and Israel." And it paid off.

[King of Kensington]

Here's all the ridings where the Liberals received 30% of the vote (bold if retained by OLP) or more and percentage point margin of vicotry or loss.

Ottawa-Vanier  42.9%  13.2 over NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North  39.9%  2.8 over NDP
Ottawa South  39.6%   10.4 over PC
Orleans  39.1%   3.9 over PC
Don Valley West     38.9%  0.4 over PC
Eglinton-Lawrence  38.7%  1.5 behind PC
Thunder Bay-Atikokan  36%  0.3 over NDP
Don Valley East    35.9%  2.8 over PC
Oakville  35.8%   7.9 behind PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore  35%  7.3 behind PC
Etobicoke Centre  34.4%  8.3 behind PC   
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.4%  0.3 over PC
St. Paul's  33.4%  2.6 behind NDP   
Ottawa Centre   32.8%  13.3 behind NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge    32%  18.5 behind PC      
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell   31.7%  9.3 behind PC
Don Valley North  30.9%  13.5 behind PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville  30.2%  11.0 behind PC

[King of Kensington]

Here's all the ridings where the Liberals received 30% of the vote (bold if retained by OLP) or more and percentage point margin of vicotry or loss.

Ottawa-Vanier  42.9%  13.2 over NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North  39.9%  2.8 over NDP
Ottawa South  39.6%   10.4 over PC
Orleans  39.1%   3.9 over PC
Don Valley West     38.9%  0.4 over PC
Eglinton-Lawrence  38.7%  1.5 behind PC
Thunder Bay-Atikokan  36%  0.3 over NDP
Don Valley East    35.9%  2.8 over PC
Oakville  35.8%   7.9 behind PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore  35%  7.3 behind PC
Etobicoke Centre  34.4%  8.3 behind PC   
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.4%  0.3 over PC
St. Paul's  33.4%  2.6 behind NDP   
Ottawa Centre   32.8%  13.3 behind NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge    32%  18.5 behind PC      
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell   31.7%  9.3 behind PC
Don Valley North  30.9%  13.5 behind PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville  30.2%  11.0 behind PC

Of the 7 seats the Liberals did win, only in two did they win with sizable margins - Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South - winning by 10 points or more.  Of the 5 closer ones, 2 were straight OLP-PC races (Don Valley West and Orleans), 1 was a Liberal-NDP race (Thunder Bay-Superior North), and 2 were three-way races (Don Valley East and Scarborough Guildwood).

Of the seats the 11 ridings the Liberals did not win, they came within 10 points in 7 of them.  Of these 7, 5 were PC-OLP races (Eglinton-Lawrence, Oakville, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell) and the 2 NDP-Liberal ones were two very different ridings - Thunder Bay-Atikokan and St. Paul's!

[King of Kensington]

You can see some "LibDem-ification" in DVW, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Mississauaga-Lakeshore, Oakville and Orleans.

[King of Kensington]

Brampton

NDP  72,755  38.9%
PCs  70,417  37.7%
Liberals  34,705  18.6%

Mississauga

PCs  113,787  41.6%
Liberals  75,121  27.4%
NDP  69,637  25.4%

York Region*

PCs  224,639  53%
Liberals  97,523  23%
NDP  77,468  18.3%

* excludes York-Simcoe riding

[King of Kensington]

You can see some "LibDem-ification" in DVW, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Mississauaga-Lakeshore, Oakville and Orleans.

To clarify further, these are all affluent suburban ridings where there's aversion to voting for the "workers' party" but also showed some hesitation to fully embracing the PCs under Ford.  Hence the Liberal vote held up and were clearly the alternative to the PCs.

A riding like St. Paul's is also filled with higher professionals/managers with a more business-oriented outlook but it's also more urban and home to a lot of the progressive middle classes too.

[King of Kensington]

That seat has a "Tory vs. Lib Dem" dynamic.

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa South really is a safe Liberal seat isn't it?  It wasn't even close.  It's long been fool's gold for the Tories, maybe it's fool's gold for the NDP too.

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa/National Capital Region

PCs  147,814  33.9%
Liberals  131,491  30.2%
NDP  130,184  29.9%

[King of Kensington]

PC vote vs. Ford 2014 vote

Beaches-East York  18.44%  21.30%
Davenport  16.09%  30.93%
Don Valley East  33.10%  33.53%
Don Valley North  44.44%  34.48%
Don Valley West  38.49%  15.23%
Eglinton-Lawrence  40.38%  22.90%
Etobicoke Centre  42.67%  43.38%
Etobicoke-Lakeshore  38.37%  34.25%
Etobicoke North  52.54%  69.39%
Humber River-Black Creek  30.29%  63.61%
Parkdale-High Park  18.01%  17.28%
Scarborough-Agincourt  50.37%  49.13%
Scarborough Centre  38.42%  51.42%
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.12%  47.65%
Scarborough North  50.17%  53.66%
Scarborough-Rouge Park  38.61%  47.48%
Scarborough Southwest  31.32%  41.98%
Spadina-Fort York  21.79%  12.87%
Toronto Centre  14.12%  13.98%
Toronto-Danforth  15.86%  18.64%
Toronto-St. Paul's  26.30%  14.25%
University-Rosedale  21.11%  10.80%
Willowdale  43.69%  28.98%
York Centre  50.15%  46.72%
York South-Weston  32.95%  59.22%

(Thanks Hatman for the municipal numbers)
 

[King of Kensington]

Another interesting aspect of Ford's leadership: the most "conservative" inner Toronto riding (St. Paul's) had a lower PC vote share than every single outer Toronto seat.  Even the most anti-Conservative outer TO seats - HRBC and York South-Weston - had higher PC shares, having become three-way races rather than the usual Conservative dead zones.

[King of Kensington]

Some poll by poll combinations for University-Rosedale.

Rosedale and Moore Park:

PC  2,370  35.3%
Liberal  2,326  34.7%
NDP  1,531  22.8%

Yorkville:

Liberal 1,769  32.5%
PC  1,668  30.6%
NDP  1,017  27.2%

Annex and Seaton Village:

NDP  4,800  61.6%
Liberal  1,373  17.6%
PC  1,017  13%

Harbord Village and Kensington Market:

NDP  2,279  61%
Liberal  570  15.3%
PC  475  12.7%