Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[King of Kensington]

Gerry Caplan was on Power and Politics today.  He said he didn't understand Andrea Horwath at all and remarked that it didn't make sense for her to want to trigger an election when you're at 20% in the polls and vote down a budget you would pretty much implement if she was premier.

[King of Kensington]

My very partisan NDP friends like the Abacus poll!  I'm skeptical.

My prediction right now is 45 Liberals, 41 PCs and 21 NDP. 

[King of Kensington]

FWIW, Forum came closest to calling it last time.

I'm going to stick with my prediction of 45 seats for the Liberals, 41 for the Tories and 21 for the NDP.  My guess is as good as anyone else's.

[King of Kensington]

Will crappy weather in Southern and Eastern Ontario have any bearing on things?

It may very well.  It wouldn't surprise me if turnout is under 50%.

[King of Kensington]

Might as well update mine:

Popular vote: Liberals 36%, PCs 35%, NDP 23%

Seats: Liberals 47, PCs 39, NDP 21

Tories pick up Brant, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Ottawa-Orleans but lose Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

NDP picks up Sudbury and Windsor West but loses Davenport and Trinity-Spadina to the Liberals.

[King of Kensington]

Kingston is fairly similar to Kitchener-Waterloo and London West ridings demographically; i.e. it seems like a seat they could have won a year ago in a by-election with Mary Rita Holland.  

[King of Kensington]

Well, it's their best result since 1990 - in terms of both seats and votes - and one that is (obviously) quite credible by historical standards. Hard to call that awful, given the various post-Rae elections.

A glorious triumph it obviously isn't, but who here is saying that?

I think Horwath just barely passes the "stay on as leader" threshold: can say she got a bit of an increase of the popular vote, almost as many seats as the Tories, could have been worse because the party was "stabbed in the back" by the "group of 34" etc.

But I have to say the "brilliant strategy" didn't bare much fruit at all.  They sacrificed 3 Toronto MPPs to win 3 MPPs elsewhere and no longer have the balance of power.  Horwath was supposed to have brought the party to the "big leagues" and be on the cusp of displacing the Liberals.  That certainly didn't materialize.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder what role demographic changes and continued gentrification in Toronto played a part in the results there; would the NDP have maybe held more seats in the city had things on the ground been as they were even ten years ago? Don't get me wrong here; the big issue was surely that the - now tres bobo - urban progressive left - which is more than capable of voting Dipper en masse - was alienated by the NDP campaign, but the context is interesting.

I don't think the old city of Toronto of the 1980s would have been much different - except maybe for Prue.

Another thing to note that while one can talk about an "orange wave" in Brampton, the "Ford New Democrat" strategy didn't do well in ungentrified working class outer Toronto.  Paul Ferreira lost ground in York South-Weston and they also lost support in Scarborough. 

I suppose York West is kind of the exception but I think that may have been that Mario Sergio has gotten more tired and complicit - the gap was narrowed but that trend was a continuation of what began in 2007.  Not so convinced Horwath-mania had much to do with it.

[King of Kensington]

I agree.  They made the strategic decision that to win back the "working class" they had to run to the right and appeal to them with populist planks like tax cuts.  A Toronto Star/group of 34 conspiracy is not to blame, it was their strategic choice to sacrifice Marchese, Prue and Schein. 

[King of Kensington]

Thornhill's result has been flipped. The PCs have won it: http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=089

So I guess Thornhill is still stuck in 2007?

[King of Kensington]

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

"A lot" is stretching it.  It does have more university graduates (22%) than HE-SC and Mountain, but it also a much a higher poverty rate.  Basically it's the inner city with a mix of poor and "yuppies" while the other two are pure semi-suburban or suburban working class.  Hamilton's educated and well-to-do are really in A-D-F-W.

[King of Kensington]

"Urban progressives" are not a totally unified category. In some areas of the city, there has been a significant influx of high-income professionals. Other areas are more fashionable with a sort of high-education-but-modest-income demographic that seeks out more affordable city neighbourhoods while being still very averse to the suburbs. The fact that the NDP can now get a weaker result in Trinity-Spadina than in the two ridings to its west is connected to movement of the latter group.

I suspect that the Conservative swing downtown may be linked to an increase in the condo population. Some of these finance or banking people are very right-wing economically. The swing appears to be negative in Davenport and very small in the two east-end ridings. Granted, it's hard to tell with these low swings.

So in other words, Davenport and Parkdale-High Park are like the Trinity-Spadina of the 1990s.

[King of Kensington]

Marchese blames "strategic voting" for his loss but concedes that the ONDP campaign didn't resonate in Toronto very well

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/long-time-ndp-mpp-marchese-blames-loss-on-strategic-voting/article19176432/#dashboard/follows/

[King of Kensington]

All the Chinese dominated ridings swung Tory this time. I fear it had to do with Wynne's sexuality. Might also explain some of the swing to the NDP (of all parties!) in Southwestern Ontario, as we know that region is more socially conservative than one might expect from its voting patterns. Generally though, Wynne's sexuality obviously didn't have a huge effect on the outcome, and maybe even helped her win in Downtown Toronto and in the 905 (and even in Ottawa). This is good news, because just 4 years ago, we saw a gay candidate lose to Rob Ford of all people in Toronto, and 4 years before that we say a gay candidate lose in Ottawa to another bumbling conservative for mayor. (Not many people are aware of our current mayor's sexuality)

A bit of a British Columbia-ization going on - i.e. Chinese voting for the "free enterprise party", Sikhs going NDP?

[King of Kensington]

True, let's not overstate this.  The only ethno-cultural group the PCs likely received a plurality of votes from was white Protestants.  

[King of Kensington]

These are federal results.  The PCs under Hudak did worse in 2014 but they didn't do well among ethnic communities in 2011 either.  Their base, then and now, is small-town and rural Ontario. The Liberals continue to dominate ethnic communities provincially.

I agree Catholics outside Quebec voted mostly for the federal Conservatives last time.

[King of Kensington]

It's obvious the Tories won the orthodox Jewish vote.

Yup.  A small group but very concentrated and enough to deliver one riding to the PCs. 

[King of Kensington]

The federal Conservatives are hoping to gain ground by appealing to social conservatism and reminding voters what Karygiannis said about Trudeau's leadership:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/06/18/tory_attack_flyer_in_toronto_byelection_quotes_longtime_liberal_mp.html

[King of Kensington]

Re: "urban progressives" - we can distinguish, perhaps, within the professional class, between more center-right business and financial professionals and managers and more progressive academic/educational professionals and people in arts and culture.

The 2011 NHS only includes the very broad categories for occupation and not all a majority are professional: for instance, Business, Finance and Administration includes not only accountants and stockbrokers but also secretaries and clerical workers.  Meanwhile, Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion is majority-professional but includes lawyers, social workers, social scientists, teachers and professors.

More detailed occupational data is available for 2006, which I got for the riding level.  One point about geographic concentration: generally clerical workers, technicians and nurses are the least concentrated, sales and service a little more so, manufacturing and trades more so, and professionals the most (in the core and in well-to-do suburbs).   So I include all professionals except nurses, as well as those in art and culture "technical" occupations like camera operators and photographers, given their geographic concentration in the core.  I include senior managers and specialist managers but not all managers because that category includes shopkeepers, cafeteria managers, etc. who don't have high levels of educational attainment overall.

So here's Trinity-Spadina, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Danforth and Beaches-East York.  I also create two categories of my own "business professional" (including senior and specialist managers) and "academic/creative professional" (teachers and professors + art and culture occupations - BTW is this the kind of work Richard Florida gets the big bucks for?).  Other professional groups such as law and government service, health and science and engineering I suppose fall into a "neutral" category.

TRINITY-SPADINA  (out of 74,600 employed)

A0 Senior managers  1,395  1.9%
A1 Specialist managers  3,435  4.6%
B0  Professionals in business and finance  4,575  6.1%

Total business professional  9,405  12.6%

E1  Teachers and professors  4,885  6.5%
F  Art and culture  8,890  11.9%

Total academic/creative professional  13,775  18.5%
Ratio  9405/13775  0.68

C0  Natural science  5,170  6.9%
D0  Health  1,955  2.6%
E0  Law, social service and government  4,325  5.8%

DAVENPORT (58,835)

A0  Senior managers  390  0.7%
A1  Specialist managers  1,125  0.9%
B0  Business and finance  1,030  1.8%

Total business professional 2,545  4.3%

E1  Teachers and professors  2,130  3.6%
F  Art and culture  4,105  7.0%

Total academic/creative professional  6,235  10.6%
Ratio  2545/6235  0.41

C0  Natural science  1,720  2.9%
D0  Health  220  0.4%
E0  Law, social service and government  1,380  2.3%

PARKDALE-HIGH PARK (58,950)

A0  Senior managers  1,050  1.8%
A1  Specialist managers  2,585  4.4%
B0  Business and finance  2,260  3.8%

Total business professional  5,895  10%

E1  Teachers and professors  3,870  6.6%
F  Art and culture  6,180  10.5%

Total academic/creative professional  10,050  17%
Ratio  5895/10050  0.59

C0  Natural science  3,555  6.0%
D0  Health  925  1.6%
E1  Law, social service, government  2,805  4.8%

TORONTO-DANFORTH (59,135)

A0  Senior managers  895  1.5%
A1  Specialist managers  2,185  3.7%
B0  Business and finance  2,240  3.8%

Total business professional  5,320  9%

E1  Teachers and professors  3,105  5.3%
F  Art and culture  6,070  10.3%

Total academic/creative professional  9,175  15.5%
Ratio  5320/9175  0.58

C0  Natural science  2,870  4.9%
D0  Health  610  1%
E0  Law, social service, government  2,550  4.3%

BEACHES-EAST YORK (58,710)

A0  Senior managers  910  1.5%
A1  Specialist managers  2,395  4.1%
B0  Business and finance  2,210  3.8%

Total business professional  5,515  9.4%

E1  Teachers and professors  2,730  4.6%
F  Art and culture  5,000  8.5%

Total academic/creative professional  7,730  13.2%
Ratio  5515/7730  0.71

C0  Natural science  3,170  5.4%
D0  Health  625  1.1%
E1  Law, social service, government  2,250  3.8%

[King of Kensington]

The unofficial poll-by-poll results were released today on the Elections Ontario website.

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-results.aspx

Here's the first poll map:

Thank You!
Very telling... First in Trinity-Spadina the NDP did win some condo land polls, looks like half a dozen, now take out the Community housng polls they won, and probably 2-3 condo polls were won by the NDP, only really won over the Little Italy-Palmerston and Christie Pitts area. They lost the University lands (North Centre of the riding) and the Hipster land, which they needed to hold those areas to offset the North East corner closer to Yorkville and the overall condo land in the south who lean Liberal. Nothing pretty here for the NDP, but not a total loss, the University-chinatown-hipster area is winnable. The By-election will be telling to see what the NDP holds vs the provincial.
Beaches - well obvious this one, Prue held on to East York but not enough to offset the lose of Beaches which trended Liberal in 2011, he had held the Upper Beaches in 2011 but losing it now cost him the riding
Davenport - Schein was the reverse of Trinity lost the Wallace-Emerson/Junction area which he needed to hold since the liberals were already dominant North of St.Clair but held on in the marginally hipster Brockton and Dufferin Grove area... north of Dundas he won, which is more working class while south is the more hipster gentrificated area we know

Parkdale-High Park - it was all Parkdale for DiNovo, she lost any poll she had won in the High Park and Swansea area but opposite to Schein won in the Junction area.
Danforth - Tabuns was lucky he lost all of Riverdale, the wealthier area at any rate, and the west Danfroth, but held Leslieville and Riverside

AMAZING Krago ... when you get some free time, what does Brampton/Mississauga look like? the NDP seemed to have been polling well in Brampton

Great maps Krago and good assessment Tommy.

FWIW, I don't think the argument of "gentrification" really holds in explaining what happened in Toronto.

[King of Kensington]

I'm pretty sure Prue carried East York throughout the time he was MPP.

[King of Kensington]

Also, I get the sense that the Beaches attracts more mainstream, "conventional" professional types than the west end does. 

[King of Kensington]

No your right, but that area in the southern tip of Davenport is part of the more gentrified, hipster, new yuppie part of West Queen West. Falls in line with what we've been saying with the waffling Progressives... could easily swap back to the NDP

Interesting how the Bloor-Ossington area held up for the NDP.  Looking at census tract data, the "right by the Drake and the Gladstone" tract is not the highest-SES tract in the riding.  It's the Ossington to Dovercourt pocket between Bloor and College.  Though yes it's less self consciously "hip" there.

[King of Kensington]

I suppose that they won more polls than their vote share would suggest?

Is that an accomplishment?

[King of Kensington]

Well, yes--in places like central Etobicoke, Forest Hill, the Willowdale-into-Scarborough axis, it'd appear that they won more whole neighbourhoods than "spot polls".  (Wonder if that's a reflection of Wynne's leftward tack or Hudak's more "economically-based" platform)

And these blue blobs look more impressive on a map.