Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

I don’t see what they would gain by sending troops into Russian territory while so much of their country is still Russian-occupied, but they should definitely use artillery and drones to (continue to?) strike at strategic targets within Russian territory.

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https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1525471028000038913

I don’t understand how there could be a baby formula crisis as long as humans continue to be mammals.

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There is still the question if Russia will even let some of the surrendered Azov fighters leave/be exchanged. Already calls from some in the Russian side for detaining them indefinitely, or outright execution:

However, Russia's TASS news agency quoted the speaker of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, as calling the Ukrainian fighters "Nazi criminals" that should not be exchanged.

Another lawmaker, Leonid Slutsky, said that although Russia had a moratorium on the death penalty, it should "think carefully" about capital punishment for the Azov fighters.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/azovstal-evacuate-mariupol-ukraine/31854197.html

You would expect them to have a desire for prisoner exchanges? At least that's what has been done numerous times since the war begun.

Not that it’ll necessarily come to this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians were more than happy to let every POW in Ukrainian hands remain there indefinitely as long as they get their revenge on the “Azov Nazis” who absolutely embarrassed them for 82 days.

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Obviously this is not unexpected, but good to see him also acknowledging it.

Why is it good?

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Obviously this is not unexpected, but good to see him also acknowledging it.

Why is it good?

Because it is common sense.

Claiming "we will not stop until we get every inch of our land back" would be foolish, considering the fact that any UA troops crossing into Crimea (if it got that far) would get cooked by FOABs at best, tactical nukes at worst.

No point in firing up the population to expect such things if they are not feasible. If he did so, he would look like a loser in the eyes of the public even if he managed to press Russia into withdrawing to the pre war status quo, which would in reality be a massive win.

I’m inclined to think that the opposite is true. Telling your people that parts of their country will remain under foreign occupation in perpetuity must be bad for morale right now, which is worse than something being bad for morale a year from now.

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Obviously this is not unexpected, but good to see him also acknowledging it.

Why is it good?

Because it is common sense.

Claiming "we will not stop until we get every inch of our land back" would be foolish, considering the fact that any UA troops crossing into Crimea (if it got that far) would get cooked by FOABs at best, tactical nukes at worst.

No point in firing up the population to expect such things if they are not feasible. If he did so, he would look like a loser in the eyes of the public even if he managed to press Russia into withdrawing to the pre war status quo, which would in reality be a massive win.

I’m inclined to think that the opposite is true. Telling your people that parts of their country will remain under foreign occupation in perpetuity must be bad for morale right now, which is worse than something being bad for morale a year from now.

His position feels pretty rational to me.  There are legitimate reasons to think a multi-year war would go poorly for Ukraine, especially now that they have reached the point where their continuing existence as a free country is not really in doubt.  Russia does have nukes and 3X as many people to throw at the war if they felt existentially threatened.   

I definitely don't think they should make a deal until they have taken their shot at recapturing Kherson, though.

In my mind I’m drawing a distinction between private strategy and publicly-announced strategy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine lacked the ability to retake parts of its country occupied by Russia before the February 24 invasion, but I wouldn’t announce this publicly until the war was coming to a close.

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So, anyway I usually have sigs turned off, so I miss out out on much of the drama, but I recently turned it on briefly and randomly saw SirWoodbury's sig



So, I was curious and Google searched it and it a screen shot from an obscure (to me at least) Russian gangster movie from 20 years called Brother 2 or Brat 2.  So a quick a quick internet search sez that it was controversial for it's racism and dialogue promoting killing of Americans and Ukrainians.  It's also supposedly one of Putin's favorite movies and he quotes it frequently as do Russian fascists in general.

Is he trolling?  Is it part of his belief system?  Or maybe he's just some film auteur.  But a the very least the Mods and everyone should know the kind of person they are dealing with.

I always assumed that was Elliot Rodger.

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Publicly known Russian casualties by origin and age. There are more details on the article which shows that most Russian deaths come from the poorer non Slavic ethnic regions in Russia. Barely anyone from Moscow is in this list.
https://zona.media/translate/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

Evidently, Buryat, population sub 1,000,000, has suffered 20.5x more casualties than Moscow, population 12,500,000.

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Bilaps will hopefully be banned in due time, until that point we should all make an effort to ignore blatant sewage in the thread (Jaichind included).

Lol, this is what happens when someone breaks into echo chamber. No discussion on the facts, just insults and yes of course to silence other views.

What exactly do you gain from posting here if it’s such an echo chamber? Are you a masochist?

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Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

If there’s one lesson to take away from this war it’s that free nations cannot allow themselves to rely on tyrannies for key parts of their economies. It’s past time that the free world become economically self-sufficient.

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Russian Vassal Ramzan Kadyrov Aims to Raise 1-2,000 Knights for Lord Putin, Challenges Other Fiefs to Do the Same

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Crimea is most definitely lost along with Donbass in the future as after Bakhmut, the only major cities left are Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Russia's defenses along Kherson are entrenched and they still supply the city (at the minimum Russian forces are going be here another half year with winter coming around). An offensive into Belgorod and Rostov are insane delusions. The only direction I see as vulnerable is the Zaporozhye direction, but that's a maybe.

Either way Russia is unfortunately going to take considerable amount of territory, now is the question of how much.

Apart from Crimea - which will indeed be hard for Ukraine to take back for all sorts of reasons - pretty much all of this is supposition.

Weren't you the poster who told us there was no Ukrainian offensive less than a fortnight ago?

Yes, but, you see, he said it’s “unfortunate” that Russia will take a “considerable” amount of territory, therefore he’s on our side!

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No need to worry, the speech didn’t withdraw, it just strategically regrouped to tomorrow.

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Unfortunately this is just delaying the inevitable as mobilization continues. Ukrainians has exhausted so much of their offensive capabilities despite it being in wartime on flatland close to the border which makes it prone to future incursions by Russia, instead of going for Kherson or the populated areas of Donetsk. And with winter coming up Russians have serious time to at least make their troops combat ready, during the end of winter/start of spring Russia will have solved the manpower problems.

A war of attrition is going to be in favor of Russia.

Because wars of attrition typically benefit the invading army, right?

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Pretend libertarian has “no investment in” the defense of freedom. Many such cases. Sad!

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https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1590738223398952960?s=20&t=8iLKso...

That flag is badass.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264?cxt=HHwWgMDQmfj...
“Perfidious Albion strikes again”

BREAKING: Anglo-Saxons reported to have extended their war beneath the waves to the heavens above

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I've refrained from posting Mearsheimer's hot takes because the man has every incentive to attempt a defence of his credibility in the twilight of his academic career. However, his interviews are getting weirder: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war

Are you sure this isn’t an interview with TimTurner?

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I’m confused, where are the pictures and videos of villagers around Bakhmut greeting the Wagnerites as liberators? I thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians supported Russia? :/

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https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1608113994723622920

https://youtu.be/t5y54d4awkw

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Can only imagine the Russian response to German tank news is a variation on the following:
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/870/771/f1e.png

You could say in a way that Russia is demilitarizing NATO of it's stocks, along with Ukraine.

You could (and you would, since it’s been a pro-Russia talking point online for months). We’ll see who has an easier time replenishing their stocks.

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Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

“This isn’t an own man. If you read my posts carefully you’ll notice that I predicted that this thing would happen, but I also successfully predicted that it might not happen, because I am a genius.”

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https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.

In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.

Perhaps, but based on the best estimates, the Russians will finally encircle Bakhmut just fifteen short years from now, having lost more men than the US has lost in all of its armed conflicts combined, and how foolish will The West look then.

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"Russia's power in Bakhmut is culminating"

Meanwhile in reality:

Give it a rest, or make your own Bakhmut thread, this level of detail doesn't belong in the megathread.

At this point WoodyWoodSucker has memorized more of Bakhmut’s geography than a Bakhmut real estate agent.

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The really enlightened position is that the Great War wasn’t a world war. The real World War I was the Seven Years’ War.