Are there any "Safe" Lib Dem Seats (user search)
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  Are there any "Safe" Lib Dem Seats (search mode)
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Author Topic: Are there any "Safe" Lib Dem Seats  (Read 2770 times)
Bono
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« on: May 21, 2005, 12:06:38 PM »

Obviously they're aren't many of them... it's also important to remember that most of the Liberal M.P's who win via a large personal vote lose eventually; people get sick of them in the end and they have no machine to fall back on (ala Godsiff or Hodge). Good examples include Thorpe and Freud. I tend to think that the same would have happend to Wainwright and Alton if they'd run again (I'm certain about Alton). That sort of thing is especially deadly if they're seat is a low turnout seat; if there's a sharp rise in turnout that sort of M.P (Simon Hughes is a good example) is almost always a gonner.

As for seats that are safe for the LibDems as a party...

Orkney & Shetland (easily the safest LibDem seat in the entire U.K... and has been since the '50's), St Ives (swung massivly Liberal as a backlash to incomers. George has a large personal vote, but it's still safe for the party methinks), Truro & St Austell (Liberal since the '70's and the current M.P is a grey blob and he wins by a lot...), Yeovil, Montgomery (Opik *does* have a large personal vote though), Oxwab (they've elected Evan Harris three times in a row. How many other places would do *that*?), Sheffield Hallam, Hazel Grove, Twickenham (I *think*).

Scotland is harder to workout; that Borders seat is pretty safe, as is Edinburgh West and I'm fairly sure about Fife NE... but it's harder to workout with some of the others... I suspect that Ross, Skye & Lochaber is a safe seat for the party, but there hasn't been an election without local boy made good Kennedy on the ballot for over 20 years. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross is (extremely) safe for Thurso but when he retires it'll be hard to tell (unless they pick another Sinclair). Mind you, that's a while off yet. Gordon is only safe for Bruce I think... although who'll be the main opposition when he retires is hard to figure out.

What about Cornwall?
That seems about as LibDem as it can get.
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