Scottish Independence Referendum: 30th November 2010

[afleitch]

Some quite unexpected news. Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander has backed calls for a referendum on Scottish independence, one year earlier than Salmond's expected date; next year rather than 2010.

The Scotsman says

"I don't fear the verdict of the Scottish people – bring it on," Ms Alexander said yesterday. Sources close to the Scottish Labour leader revealed she had been considering the major policy reversal for some time but had wanted to discuss it with colleagues at Holyrood and Westminster – including Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister – before reaching a final decision.

Ms Alexander has now made that decision and given her support to a referendum as early as next year, although she believes it is wrong to wait until 2010, as the SNP wants.Mr Brown is cautious about backing a referendum. However, The Scotsman understands the Prime Minister has not made a decision on the issue yet.''

This is significant. Disregarding the question as who has the right to move for a referendum, Holyrood or Westminster, without Labour support in either chamber any move would have been unlikely.

Of course, while Wendy wishes to call Salmond's bluff, it could backfire. Opinion polls on independence are iffy, and grossly dependent on the wording, with YES support ranging from 20-55%. Should we find ourselves in 2009, with a more unpopular government, a popular SNP administration at Holyrood and a worsening economy a strong economic case for independence could resonate with voters.

What happens if we vote yes...?

Hopefully, watch this space.

[afleitch]

Oh dear...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7387669.stm

[afleitch]

For the record, while I'm undecided, the current lot in Holyrood and the pleasing sounds from Scottish business and the far better than expected economic performance in the last two quarters would probably lead me to vote 'Yes' if sustained through to 2010.

[afleitch]

For the record, while I'm undecided, the current lot in Holyrood and the pleasing sounds from Scottish business and the far better than expected economic performance in the last two quarters would probably lead me to vote 'Yes' if sustained through to 2010.

Do you think that view is widespread among Scottish Conservatives? (Or other groups, for that matter?)

Widespread? Yes. Voiced? No.

We wouldn't survive independence as a party. We'd simply fragment mostly to the SNP, some to Labour and others to the Liberals and probably retain a rump Tory party that would survive before fading. It would be split along ideological and local/regionalurban/rural lines.

[afleitch]

Why would the SNP survive? Independence is their raison d'etre; surely independence would mean the party folds within a decade.

Or else morph into a right-wing populist party that draws away many of the less palatable Conservative supporters. So maybe I see what you mean.

The SNP have a far stronger base now, I can't see them folding, but yes they would morph into the dominant centre-right party. Their new raison d'etre would simply be The Nation and the economic success of the Nation.

[afleitch]

Any chance of a surviving rump Conservative & Unionist Party calling to undo Independence?

[/quote]

Yes, mostly the 'Orange' wing, which is only active in a few local areas in the west of Scotland (a few 'play about' in the SNP actually). Most of their supporters formed the Scottish Unionist Party, which was a front for the Orange Order and struggles to perform anywhere it stands. Such parties are cultural more than anything else. I can't see 'undoing independence' being strong enough and defined enough to forge a strong party around it.

[afleitch]

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/Brown-humiliates-Alexander.4071458.jp

I almost feel sorry for Wendy. But what Brown wants, Brown gets no matter how many career's he has to ruin.

[afleitch]

November 30th 2010 has been pencilled in.

This will be less than 6 months until the next Holyrood election, but some months after the latest possible UK General Election date.

[afleitch]

That'll be a night to remember.  The prospect of the Act of Union overturned, after all these years...I doubt it'd pass, but who knows what the next two years will be like?

As I've said before, with Scotland out, wouldn't the Union Jack be ugly?

They didn't change it when the bulk of Ireland left, why change it if Scotland goes? Although the "United Kingdom of Great Britain [and NI]" might be a bit of a problem as a name.

For the record, based on the current economic climate, the current government both in the UK and in Scotland and the economic arguments in favour of an independent low-tax Scotland at the moment I'd vote Yes.

I have no sentimental attachment to the UK. Nor, as proud a Scot as I am, have a sentimental attachment to a 'romanticised' independence. Whoever makes the most realistic argument with regards the state of the Scottish economy and the tax system under either scenario will win my vote.

However, the more two-bit commentators 'down south' gripe about the supposed gold paved streets of Scotland, and the difference in policy and priority as the result of devolution (if you want to moan about student deals, free long term care, free prescriptions etc be angry at the priorities of your government, not ours) and, heaven forbid that the rest of the UK somehow gets a say in whether or not to let us go, then my national pride does begin to show.

[afleitch]

Why November 2010?

Because it's the after the last possible date for a UK General Election

A poll has given some weight to something I've been thinking for a long time. Namely that  You Gov poll indicates that up to a quarter of Scots would be more likely to vote for independence if the Conservatives win the next general election. The poll showed 34% support for independence, 50% opposed and the remainder undecided.

More soon when I have time.

[afleitch]

Why November 2010?

Because it's the after the last possible date for a UK General Election

A poll has given some weight to something I've been thinking for a long time. Namely that  You Gov poll indicates that up to a quarter of Scots would be more likely to vote for independence if the Conservatives win the next general election. The poll showed 34% support for independence, 50% opposed and the remainder undecided.

More soon when I have time.

The same basic date has been floating around for a referendum on turning the Assembly into a Parliament out here; and for the same reason. It may also determine when, exactly, Rhodri retires. He'll probably go next year, but he may want to stay on to guide the referendum through. In theory it's a much better chance of success than an Independence referendum in Scotland, but the tendency of the Welsh electorate to swing towards the status-quo in such votes is now well established.

Is there a link to a working paraper on that? I think, on a personal level Wales should be granted a full Parliament. Devolution is a process, not an end. Of course, as I've mentioned here before the Assembly, proportionally should expand to 80 members. That would mean a 40/40 split between constituencies and regions (if that system remains) Or else there could be an increase in constituencies (hint hint)

I am pleased that Gordy has given serious reconsideration to his opposition for increased fiscal autonomy as the block grant from Westminster while generous, is unfair. I really want an end to 'Arse of Enfield' comments in papers who seems to think that every time someone in Scotland goes to the loo 'England pays for it'

Henry McLeish has also came out in favour of the need to the UK to federalise which is a debate that is worth having.

[afleitch]

Probably worth and update here;

http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2487786.0.scotland_on_a_knifeedge.php

Scotland on a knife-edge

POLL EXCLUSIVE: 38% support independence 40% oppose it By Tom Gordon and Paul Hutcheon

SUPPORT FOR independence has hardened in the face of the global recession, despite Labour predictions that the crisis would see more Scots turning to the Union for protection.

The latest TNS System Three survey for the Sunday Herald found support for leaving the union rose three points during the last quarter, while opposition to a separate Scottish state fell to its lowest level since the poll began 18 months ago.

The findings suggest the public has ignored Labour warnings that a breakaway Scotland would be doomed to join Iceland in the "arc of insolvency".
 
The poll was taken after opposition parties initially voted down the SNP government's budget on February 28. Voters were reportedly unimpressed that MSPs could not agree a budget despite the country suffering the worst recession in decades.

The poll asked 971 adults how they would vote in a referendum on whether the Scottish government should open negotiations with Westminster on independence.

Support for commencing talks on separation was 38%, compared to 35% in October, while opposition was 40%, compared to 43%.

The individual poll aside, with the SNP still committed to pursuing a referendum I am beginning to believe that the chances of a Yes vote are increasing. Much of this is circumstantial of course. However with an SNP administration, a year of the 'blame game' Labour out of office and the Tories in then the chances look good.