UK Election 2010

[afleitch]

On the plus side I have some spare annual leave and flexi I can use if there's a 'snap' election. Likelyhood is I could be bussed down south. No doubt Corby

[afleitch]

If you're looking for Con targets near you, then might I make the following suggestions:

Number 30: Perth and Perthshire North Con swing to gain: 1.66%
Number 41: Angus Con swing to gain: 2.10%
Number 55: Dumfries and Galloway Con swing to gain: 2.87%
Number 85: Edinburgh South Con swing to gain: 4.56%
Number 96: Ochil and Perthshire South Con swing to gain: 4.95%
Number 106: Stirling Con swing to gain: 5.46%
Number 126: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Con swing to gain: 6.50%
Number 128: Argyll and Bute Con swing to gain: 6.52%
Number 141: Renfrewshire East Con swing to gain: 7.02%

Knock all those out and Cameron has a majority of 52

Perth and Perthshire North - SNP hold
Angus - SNP hold
Dumfries and Galloway - LAB hold (contains the town of Dumfries - put two and two together)
Edinburgh South - A possible gain actually with a depression in the Lib Dem vote and a local campaign.
Ochil and Perthshire South - SNP gain
Stirling - Odd one this, as it was in May. Possible SNP gain.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - CON gain - and a kick in the gut for the Lib Dems
Argyll and Bute - SNP challenge here, Lib Dems hang on.
Renfrewshire East - Labour hold

[afleitch]

On the plus side I have some spare annual leave and flexi I can use if there's a 'snap' election. Likelyhood is I could be bussed down south. No doubt Corby

You'll be voting SNP

Dave

In Rutherglen and Hamilton West? More than likely Tory as I did last time as it's a Labour hold regardless. Lib Dems came in second (my old student union president stood for them, which made me ponder a little) I will judge how the SNP are performing during the campaign. If theres a significant enough swing in their favour i'll give them my vote.

Of course unless the election is very soon I could be living elsewhere

I'd like to trave but I have a feeling I'd be asked to stomp around Eastwood East Renfrewshire or DC&T which isn't too far away. Either way I'll probably be asked to do the fairly working class areas after quiet a good reception last time.

[afleitch]

Dumfries and Galloway - LAB hold (contains the town of Dumfries - put two and two together)

Would I be right in thinking that Stranraer has always had a significant Labour vote but many voted tactically for the SNP in the old Galloway and Upper Nithsdale constituency?

Dave

Pretty much. Tactical voting and a minor swing should easily allow the Conservatives in. But Dumfries proper comes out in force in Labour more so in recent races. It did in the Dumfries seat in May when it was expected Tory gain but Labour held the seat. Tory voting areas of that seat are in DC&T.

EDIT - Expect a battle to unseat Alistair Darling in Edinburgh SW. 8.2 swing needed, but easier if there is a little tactical voting,

[afleitch]

Seem rather sure, Ben that Gord will go to the country. We're having lovely weather here in Durham at the moment (for October), but it can only get worse. Not to mention dark nights

Dave

Dave, in the last few days i've spoken with folks in both the Labour and Conservative parties, MPs and PPCs as well as party workers, agents and organisers... it all seems to be set for November (either the 1st or the 8th), and if it does take place its one of the biggest gambles in modern political history IMHO.   

Are any of the parties really actually ready for a snap election? I'm sure should it come I'll fight the good fight but I don't find the dark nights and trudging in the rain particularly appealing

Wouldn't they all rather wait, truth to be known ?

Dave

I dont think any party is ever ready for an election even when its inevitable.

As for the cold nights it's dark in Glasgow at 4.38pm on Nov 1st and a 4.34 in London. So rush hour in darkness

[afleitch]

Quick word about AV, studies show that if AV was implemented all it would do is entrench the disproportionality that exists in FPTP. In 2005 under AV Labours majority would have been 100-150 - a disturbing figure considering the led by just 3%. Instead of needing a 10% lead to get a majority the Tories would need something closer to 15%. Again a disturbing figure. Compared to AV, FPTP is bizarrely more 'proportionate.' I do suspect that Labour will look into changing the system in the guise of 'democracy' but recommend AV with the above in mind.

I could only support STV in multi-member constituencies at the moment. Otherwise retain FPTP but just draw the constituencies a tad better.

[afleitch]

Too many uber-righties with no conscience whatsoever still lurking in the Conservative Party for my liking. PURGE THEM!

Dave

Yes, we need to get rid of those old right wing buffers like whatsisname; Quentin Davies!...oh..wait...

[afleitch]

ICM neck and neck.

Three polls out with Tories 4,3 and neck and neck. Great figures for going into the campaign (should there be one though I think there won't be with some 'getting on with the job' TM or 'Britain first' TM backpeddling ) The Lib Dems are horribly, and indeed more than likely innacurately low; they always climb up in the polls when people realise they exist (to our foreign frieds: yes - really)

But...?

[afleitch]

For the record, the 'Clucking Fist' isn't mine And I really don't see how 'economic stability=tax rises.' It doesn't work like that. Their tax cutting proposals are relatively modest. Indeed the Tory plans in 2005 (which also included tax cuts) would have resulted in a marginally higher level of public spending after 5 years than what is infact planned after Brown's last budget. Besides the economy isn't stable; Darling is lowering growth forecasts for 2008; the economy is not 'stable' it's 'tottering' and we can only hope for the sake of our wallets it goes one way and not the other.

[afleitch]

I think the Lib Dem figures are unnaturaly low (though to whose ultimate loss: Labour of the Tories) I think these polls are good figures for the Conservatives if we are indeed going into an election campaign with the objective, lets be honest, of overturning Labours majority and forcing Gordon to look 'a bit silly' and forcing another election 6-18 months later.

[afleitch]

Btw, is the collapse of LibDem support in Scotland plausible or not? (genuine question, btw).

Absolutely; though I expect a moderate recovery but still below 2005. May was, upon reflection an unexpected downturn in Lib Dem fortunes (which then made them reluctant to join a coalition) Those that I've spoken to believe they were the electoral 'fall guys' for McConnells administration and not without point too. Again, if Lib Dems nose dive or even decline to 30-40 seats but are perhaps required to give either Labour or the Tories a majority, they will be more reluctant to risk the same thing happening again.

As for potential loss of seats I know that the Tories will target Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk on the back of their May success and also Edinburgh South, hoping for tactical voting to help them here, particularly if the Lib Dems need to bail out BR&S. Edinburgh South West, Alistair Darlings seat will also be ferociously targeted, as ministers seats always are.

[afleitch]

The figures on non-domiciles are the cause of a rucous. When asked about it previously, Darling said no such figures were kept by the government. Private Eye also had requested the figures previously and were told the same thing. Now, suprisingly they turn up. Which means either the government was witholding information and contravening their own FOI act or the set the civil servants a task to discover them, which is a abuse of the neutrality of the civil service.

FTR: Other Anglophone nations tax non-domiciles this way and they don't leave the country. It's unecesary scare and a detraction from sensible debate. Not that I think this idea will really interest most people anyway!

[afleitch]

Poll about 'election fever' out tomorrow - well its really the rest of the ICM poll.

48% of voters want a November election, 43% do not.

67% of Tories want a snap election with 76% 'absolutely certain' to vote. Only 36% of Labour supporters want an election with 59% 'absolutely certain' to vote and around '1 in 2' of Lib Dems absolutely certain to vote

[afleitch]

One great effect of the conference has been a surge in motivation amongst Conservative members and probably supporters. I think there was dissent, and there probably still is, but after Browns speech something happened. When we realised a statist, populist Britain was the alterantive, Cameron seemed not so bad afterall.

If, as the polls suggest, the public are hungry for tax cuts, if the Conservatives set the agenda on that leading to Brown responding in kind (to the disdain of some in his own party) things could go very wel indeed.

FTR I was reading that if we reduced public spending to 2002/03 levels, we could technically abolish income tax and still have something like £30bn spare. I think that shows how ghastly the tax burden has become to the extent the tax burden is disproportionate to the effects it has on NHS, education and other public services. It doesn't help matters when something like a £3bn tax cut is announced and Labour scream that it would hurt the economy.

[afleitch]

Well (clears throat) no surprise there. Gordon was only going to go when it was right for Gordon, as I suppose any politician would. In other news, Tories 3 points ahead in YouGov.

[afleitch]

There's nothing 'new' or 'modern' about David Cameron. Scratch beneath the surface and the Conservative Party hasn't 'changed'. Hasn't got the guts to stand up to the right-wing of his party. Cameron's merely the lipstick on the proverbial pig

I think thats verging on the factually innacurate rather than a difference of opinion

[afleitch]

IMO letting the rumours get out of control has been the first real mistake of the Brown government; hopefully it's one that they learn from.

The second mistake was not to shut down those rumours before either the Labour or Tory conference if indeed, Brown didn't want to go to the country. The only explanation is that he would have done had the polls been good (who wouldn't?)

I think his Iraq stunt, the figures of which were so easily pulled apart before he even made it (and again could have put a stop to) was also a minor error, coupled with him ringing up irate journalists in the wee small hours to complain about bad headlines has not endeared him to the press in the 'post-Blair' era. Media access to the Labour Conference was also more restricted and the Tories, more relaxed than ususal. It paid off for the Tories, partly because all the windbags shut up for the week and people like Mercer saw the light and came back in from the cold.

[afleitch]

It was noted that the polls are now at their most volatile for close to 20 years. I agree that I don't think anyone believes the Lib Dems will poll that low, however it is probable the Lib Dems could dip below 10% in a future poll (They have already fell below that level in some individual day samples)

As for YouGov, anyone know why their broadly flatlining, fairly accurate polls have been bouncing 'MORI' style?

[afleitch]

Meanwhile Brown and Labour enjoyed a media love-in from across the political spectrum that only began to unravel over the last week or so! 

Quite - Brown phoning up journo's didn't help Last week the right-wing press who had been very critical of Cameron snapped out of a malaise after hearing Brown's speech and the frightening prospect of an ever consuming statism. Brown placed himself as the centre of the conference from the very start and his speech on the Monday. It was not about Labour, but about Brown.

For the Conservatives it was, suprisingly about the Conservatives and not Cameron. Each day was about someone different discussing party policy; Hague, Osborne, IDS and rounded off with Cameron's speech drawing together everything that been discussed and debated from the main hall to the side shows.

Some people I know think Cameron is a complete twat, but the decision to be made in the years ahead is not about Cameron v Brown, but about Conservative v Labour, Proposals v Record and they know that and will vote accordingly.

For the Tory grassroots it was a great week. For me watching Labour direhards, even socialists in the blogsphere attempting to justify not taxing non-domiciles and not removing stamp duty for first time buyers and above all not critically questioning Brown's direction was rather sad to watch. Our lot may be volatile, but they are not inert.

[afleitch]

What has happened to the Liberal Conservative?

If anything we heard more liberal conservatism from Cameron; on lower taxes for low earners, drug rehab expansion, IDS on poverty etc, as Brown has chosen the path of authoritarian conservatism.

[afleitch]

I've went over most of this before but as always if I see something I disagree with factually them I'll challenge it
[
i]What I had a gutfull of, hitherto, was David Cameron thinking from the moment he became leader of the Conservative Party expecting to rise a White Swan all the way to 10 Downing Street on the back of Blair and Labour's 'failings' without offering any alternative.[/i]

Is that why we spent the past year undergoing a policy review that reported this summer? Is that why Conservative members were asked before last years conference to vote on Built To Last to allow the policy review to move forward with the endorsment of the party membership? We've spent the past bloody year having a policy review! Lord Forsyth's Tax Reform Commission, which formed the basis of the reforms reported last October (which then formed the basis of John Redwood's report, or rather most of it did as some proposals found their way into the Treasury...) You can disagree with policy, but don't pretend we've magiked them out of a hat or thought we could go to the country without any. People, myself included have put alot of effort into getting issues on the agenda and offering constructive ideas for policy. They've now reported and I'm pleased with the results.

[afleitch]

Likely Outcome: Lab + Lib Dem Coalition

In other words, not what Brown wanted at all

Quite. Pencil in a few losses to the SNP on a higher than the national aveage swing. However I would tend to agree with those who believe the Lib Dems would be reluctant to form a coalition with Labour as it would be forming a coalition with an 'outgoing' party. That is to say, the cost of being the coalition partner in a potentially unpopular govt does not outweigh the benefits. (There would be a greater benefit in being the coalition partner of an incoming government; the Tories, from the start if it was a mathematical option) Or, as in Scotland as i've mentioned before, it's the junior party that is the 'fall guy' for the failings of the major party.

[afleitch]

I'm more than happy with STV; it maintains constituencies, albeit larger. That way they can be more suited to communities and counties than the current set up. A bit like the new wards in Scotland but on a larger scale. The nightmare scenario is AV on the existing constituencies; it solidifies Labour's presence and leads to a less proportional result for the Conservatives and the smaller parties (Lib Dems too in some areas). As I've said before it would need an approximate 15% lead over Labour for the Tories to gain a majority. FPTP is, by comparison preferable and more proportional.

[afleitch]

AV is fair. At least, every vote, ultimately, counts

I can see your point. STV does the same thing with your vote (or in this case 'votes'), but it does it more proportionately and, dare I say more 'fairly' than AV which entrenches disparities in the outcome of the election in terms of seats.

[afleitch]

What to make of the troop withdrawral announcement in this environment? Do this suggest Brown's going for it... or waiting? I can see both sides.

- Announces the drawdown - waits a few days then pull the election out of his perverbial - but that of course risks looking terribly opportunistic.

- Has the troop withdrawral up his sleeve as a measure to promote his difference on foreign policy to Blair.

I don't think it will help him. Last Tuesdays announcement bombed. There wil be no election this year.