UK Election 2010

[afleitch]

Is this the right thread to discuss the local elections happening this year?

You may as well.

I guess that Labour will make gains in the locals no matter how the general turns out...

Depends on where they are held. Should they be held on the same day then they will probably mirror (to a point) GE results.

Doing the rounds on PB is Andy Cookes projections based on lead



The UNS makes no allowance for tactical voting, tactical rewind or any other electoral foible as it takes a 'swing' from the voting patterns as well as figures for 2005. In short it attempts to demonstrate that the Tories dont need a lead of 10% to get a majority. It needs to be between 6 and 8%

[afleitch]

And mine

http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tory.php?poster=229750

[afleitch]

And mine

http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tory.php?poster=229750

Haha, that made me laugh.

Thanks

I did this one in response to your sig

[afleitch]

Can anyone point me to any good forums dedicated to British politics, both for general elections and local elections?

Probably others here could point to more, but I know of three; politicalbetting (which is very popular but also not exactly to everyone's taste), ukpollingreport and vote-2007. I can't remember whether they're .coms or .co.uks or whatever, so its better just to google them.

Political Betting is good, but more of a long narrative rather than a forum.

[afleitch]

Retirement news... James Purnell (he of 'worst attempted coup eVar' fame) will not seek re-election. Its unusual to see a political career end in total failure before the age of fourty, though maybe he'll try some sort of comeback in the future. Also stepping down is genuinely scary Tommy McAvoy; who is, as the BBC reminds us, the longest serving government whip ever. He will, I think, be remembered for some time... as nightmare fuel for backbench MPs.

And so ends another part  of Lanarkshires 'Hooverocracy'

[afleitch]

New YouGov poll:

Tories: 37% (-2)
Labour: 35% (+2)

I think this is one of the one-day-polls, so I suppose its more likely to be wrong. Us being essentially level with 2005 is a little hard for me to believe, however nice it is to see.

YouGov's tracker poll is curious. The last company to try this at the last election was Populous, whos figures ended up all over the place. So prior to beginning this one, YouGov reviewed it's methods and changed their poll 'weighting' further in Labours favour. Daily samples are only polling about 800-850 people a daye (which is pretty low given YouGovs potential outreach.

For the record, the unweighed figures for the past 3 days in terms of a party 'share' of a 3 party choice (helluva lot of don't knows) have been consistent. Post 'bullying' Con identifiers rose 7% and Labour fell 4%

An out and out weighting by how people voted in 2005 (33-36-23) gave the Tories a 12% lead with AR on the 21st and a landslide producing 12% swing in the marginals...

This is not to suggest that AR is correct, namely that all pollsters are essentialy polling the same data but applying weighting and redistribution in a varying way.

[afleitch]

New YouGov poll:

Tories: 37% (-2)
Labour: 35% (+2)

I think this is one of the one-day-polls, so I suppose its more likely to be wrong. Us being essentially level with 2005 is a little hard for me to believe, however nice it is to see.

YouGov's tracker poll is curious. The last company to try this at the last election was Populous, whos figures ended up all over the place. So prior to beginning this one, YouGov reviewed it's methods and changed their poll 'weighting' further in Labours favour. Daily samples are only polling about 800-850 people a daye (which is pretty low given YouGovs potential outreach.

For the record, the unweighed figures for the past 3 days in terms of a party 'share' of a 3 party choice (helluva lot of don't knows) have been consistent. Post 'bullying' Con identifiers rose 7% and Labour fell 4%

An out and out weighting by how people voted in 2005 (33-36-23) gave the Tories a 12% lead with AR on the 21st and a landslide producing 12% swing in the marginals...

This is not to suggest that AR is correct, namely that all pollsters are essentialy polling the same data but applying weighting and redistribution in a varying way.

EDIT: Just to note that I am enjoying this. Cameron is displaying the steely nerve (as are those in the party) of someone who knows more than he is letting on. In public at least, Labour cannot play their 'underdog' rhetoric; we've always performed well when that happens

[afleitch]

I hope Gordon goes to the country tomorrow. I want to take to the streets and say 'right guys; this is it, what do you want in the next 5 years?'

[afleitch]

I hope Gordon goes to the country tomorrow. I want to take to the streets and say 'right guys; this is it, what do you want in the next 5 years?'

It wouldn't suprise me if he does.

It would be shot in the arm for the Tories if he does.

[afleitch]

The Tory website has been relaunched in 'campiagn mode'

[afleitch]

Well the Pound has taken a slide due to the narrowing polls That's not good for anyone.

A 5-6 point lead for the Tories is not as good as it should be. I think I'm allowed to indulge in a wee 'it's not fair' moment given then a 3pt lead in 2005 was enough to gift Labour a majority of 66. However looking beyond the UNS straightjacket a 6 point national lead coupled with a larger swing in the marginals should be enough to see the Tories through to a majority. Likewise a 10 point lead, which UNS says would give us a majority of 1 (if we're lucky) in reality would likely see a small landslide. A recent poll in Scotland had Labour just 2 pts ahead of the SNP. Indeed wading through the data of all the polls shows that the Tories have let go of a bit of their 'core' vote of late, Labour have got theirs motivated plus hold some of the soft Lib Dem vote. The Lib Dems are struggling at the moment but when the actual election comes round and people remember that they exist ( ) they will claw some of this back. In fact if you want to play games and impliment the expected election campaign movements now (based on what has happened in the past), then Labour can be clipped to 30-31 and the Tories upticked to 39-40. I see no harm in reminding everyone that in nearly every single pre-election poll in every general election going back to 1979 (and possibly before..someone on PB had it going back to the 50's (though this was when polling was not particularly good) ) Labour have been overestimated.

Now when the battle becomes Labour or Tory, the Lib Dems could be squeezed...but there is nothing to suggest at present (indeed quite the contrary) that people would prefer a Labour government over a Tory one.

There is still a private expectation, on both sides, that the Tories will win a majority. At worst they will fall just short. That is how it stands if the country voted now. What Gordon has to gamble is when to go to the polls. The fact that yesterday he did not makes me optimistic. We've got a possible budget. We have expected tax rises in April. We have a possible slide back towards recession. We have increasing inflation. Yet he's not gone yet.

I still expect something along the lines of Con39, Lab 30, Lib Dem 19 and a Conservative majority of 20-40 seats.

[afleitch]

Is it just me who thinks the Lib Dems have the most to gain from the debates?

They have the most to gain from a campaign full stop. Although they need to come up with 'the line' to peddle if there is a hung parliament narrative. Ashdown in 1992 played it wrong coming over a tad too smug and the Lib Dems took a bit of a dive in the last week.

The most to gain from the debates is Cameron. He does them well and his round the country public forum chats have given him alot of experience even if there is an informal setting. He had the most to loose when things were better. Now he has the most to gain from a leaders debate.

[afleitch]

In fact if you want to play games and impliment the expected election campaign movements now (based on what has happened in the past), then Labour can be clipped to 30-31 and the Tories upticked to 39-40. I see no harm in reminding everyone that in nearly every single pre-election poll in every general election going back to 1979 (and possibly before..someone on PB had it going back to the 50's (though this was when polling was not particularly good) ) Labour have been overestimated.

I decided to have a go at this. Taking May 6th as the polling date (thank you Balls) which is just shy of 2 months from now (and taking the UKPollingReport rolling score 38/31/18) and taking the polling figures two months before an election in 92, 97, 01, 05 if we make the adjustment for what happened in each campaign we would get

1992 adjustment 40/27/20
1997 adjustment 39/26/23
2001 adjustment 39/25/22
2005 adjustment 39/28/20

Just fun really, but if we look at the polls for the two months before 2005

2005: 60 published polls. Overstating Labour - 58. Understating - 1. On the mark - 1.
2001: 41 published polls. Overstating Labour - 41.  ---                       --- 

That's just to explain why I automatically 'shave' something off from Labour's total.

[afleitch]

Any polls of North Ireland and Scotland yet?

Most recent poll for Scotland is Ipsos/MORI

Lab 34
SNP 32
Con 17
Lib 12

[afleitch]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/advanced-swingometer-map

Yey!

[afleitch]

Shame Gordon didn't go to the country on Monday.

Thats two polls (that aren't for once YouGov) with Tory leads of 8 and 9. ICM has it at 9 with a Tory ' 2005vote retention' of 90%, Labour 69% and 58% Lib Dem which shows a return of the core vote after a few weeks of leakage.

[afleitch]

BPIX/Mail on Sunday

Con 36
Lab 34
LibDem 18

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256061/Mrs-Cameron-voted-Labour-Source-suggests-Tory-leaders-wife-voted-Blair--vote-Brown.html

I like the huge sample (6000 people).

Might be more indicative of the actual results than a 1000 survey, which have the Tories ahead by more.

Uh, no.

Using huge samples like that makes sense only if you absolutely do not trust your ability to get an unbiased sample the traditional way... and then only if you actually do several polls of different types of community and combine them.

This is probably just trash.

What is even more confusing is that polls 'marginals' sample which suggests the Tories could get close to a majority with less than a 2pt national lead...

[afleitch]

Latest YouGov poll:

Tories - 37%
Labour - 34%
Lib Dems - 17%

Latest Angus Reid

CON 39%
LAB 26%
LIB 17%

Which is a 13pt lead. This week we've had 7pt, 8pt and 9pt leads from other pollsters. Except YouGov. Either YouGov has won a watch by deciding to 'uprate' the Labour share in its daily poll or it is way out of line. We won't know until the election.

[afleitch]

Only some local news here. The SNP seem to be piling into Lanark and Hamilton East. Tories really getting stuck into East Renfrewshire with a passion (what else is there to target locally..) Edinburgh South for the Tories looking more promising than Darling's seat next door. Everyone has given up in East Dumbartonshire; Lib Dem's Jo Swinson will walk it. SNP probably ahead in Kilmarnock and Stirling. Top expenses swindler Eric Joyce under pressure from SNP in Falkirk (as long as the expenses stuff is not overplayed) and the issue is also being raised in suspended Jim Devine's Livingston seat. I expect the SNP to do very from the Ochils, down through Stirling, Falkirk and Livingston as in 2007.

[afleitch]

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A quote from Clegg on GMTV. I hoep he realises that even a majority on say 40-42% for the Tories is not a mandate when 58-60% of voters would vote against them. I thought his party was for a fairer voting system.

But it was of course a mandate for Labour in 1997 and 2001. And again in 2005 with just a 35% share...?

[afleitch]

The attempt by the East Lothian CLP to depose its MP has reached the NEC, fwiw.

A very very curious story with the potential to spill over onto Holyrood and affect Gray. This and the Purcell issue is damaging Labour up here. East Lothian is a potential SNP gain (the Westminter seat includes the SNP hotspot of Musselburgh.)

[afleitch]

Quite a shock and a great shame. R.I.P

[afleitch]

Bit of a poll movement back towards the Tories this past week.

Recent polls within the past week (by % lead)

Angus Reid 13%
Opinium 11%
ICM 9%
YouGov (most recent daily) 5%

Poll average  9.5%
Poll average less YouGov 11%

Not sure how it will last. Cameron appears to have got some fire in his belly; his 'soap box' speech at Lewisham today was really good. Cameron has been touring the country for a year with his public QandA 'Cameron Direct'; this will stand him in good stead at the debates.

[afleitch]

Opinium? Never heard of them before. Unfortunate choice of name...

They have applied (IIRC) to join the British Polling Council. They have ran polls for months but didn't publish them just to test the methodology. It's good to have more pollsters (though perhaps not more polls). Its even good to see Harris back. Even Marplan may make a re-entry

[afleitch]

Well, you're a bit lucky in Scotland in that the SNP have very few opportunities for gains despite their improvement. If they were still polling in the mid-30s, they would have a chance at massive gains, but right now there are only maybe 15 seats at most where they'll even be a factor (including their current ones).

Never say never for the SNP. They know where to get their vote out when they need it.

I agree. Scotland will probably see some of the highest (on paper) swings of the night. The Scottish elections and the Euros last year are a good indicator of where SNP voters are to found. For instance I don't see the Tories taking any seats off the SNP with gains limited to Labour seats and one (or possibly two...)

The Lib Dems share is likely to about half which isn't enough to dislodge them from many seats but

FTR the last all Scotland poll (almost two weeks ago) had the Labour lead at just 2% 34:32