UK General Discussion: Rishecession

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In fairness, the pension 'triple lock' was always just pork, based on an extremely generous measure that trumped both state benefits and real wages. An inflation busting rise for Tory client voters is not, in the current climate, a smart political move.

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Worth noting that the recent Scotland poll was commissioned by Alba. Who inserted themselves as a prompted choice.

In terms of flow of the vote from the five recent published polls, rather than direct swing, the SNP and Labour have the same retention rate of 86% and flow to each other of 9%. Numerically there are more SNP to Labour switchers as there are more SNP voters to start with. A direct flow from Tory to Labour (25%) disproportionally would advantage Labour more in seats where they are in third or even fourth.

So based on that model, the only seats Labour win are Kirkcaldy and East Lothian (currently Alba held) and the SNP take every seat from the Tories.

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Braverman's Commons rhetoric about 'tofu eating wokerati' was 4chan teenage/Facebook uncle cringe. Not befitting any MP never mind the Home Secretary.

Good move by the Chancellor...

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This is incredible stuff. I always knew - and said to everyone - that a Truss premiership would be really funny, but this endless rolling shitshow is beyond what I imagined.

It is lovely.

I mean, were economically f-ked

But the fact that the Tory brand, faux populism and anti-woke p-ss and economic libertarian w-nk is getting throughly trashed, somewhat contrary to recent European trends, is delightful.

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Small units of time in politics used to be measured in the tenure of Scottish Labour leaders. The current leader has outlasted two PM's.

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That is the lowest vote share (and people are still double checking) ever recorded for the Conservatives in published General Election opinion polling.

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It's Rishi.

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New title suggestions please.

Veni, Vidi, Rishi

Others are acceptable.

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He is also the most...you know...PMs since forever. I make no apology for having a touch of the Edwina's about JM.

Cameron was moon faced. Blair looked like someone who'd bore you to death with talk about crap guitar bands. AE maybe. But he was on too many uppers.

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Rishi Rich, PM.

We might have a winner

Unless Private Eye nick it.

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Quite an odd question to 'map' out, rather than voting intention.

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There will also, undoubtedly, be 'sectarian' voting in various directions in some measure even during a Tory defeat, if Sunak is still leader. Any model will need to drill down with specific polling.

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Liz Truss is one of the few Prime Ministers that I genuinely believe was an empty-headed person lacking in brain cells. She wasn't robotic like Theresa May because of a mere social awkwardness but because there simply wasn't any extra level of thought beyond the pathetic soundbites.

Absolutely. It's been known for decades but she kept inexplicably being elevated.

The country is reeling from dubious Cameron era selection processes.

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How many Ministers Without Portfolio is this?

Everyone's a Minister. Only one backbencher; JRM.

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Daniel Kruger.

Minister for Baking.

(j/k)

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For anyone concerned about the polling, the polling got worse for the Tories in the weeks after the mini budget. Polling is still as bad as it was in mid October.

The shifts in the polls were either Tories to 'Don't Knows' or directly to Labour. Depending on whether a poster disregards don't knows or reallocates them (often back to the Tories) can impact the lead.

Reform (Brexit Party) have seen an odd little surge, perhaps on the back of the uncontested leadership contest or being 'true believers'.

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There's possibly a reason why Leaky Sue remains in post.

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In the most recent poll (49% Yes) from October, the % of Yes to No and No to Yes switchers are within one percentage point of each other. Numerically of course that means more No to Yes switchers.

If these figures aren't the result of false recall, then the key to victory is to get Yes to No switchers back on board in a way that doesn't alienate recent converts.

The unlikely route to win elections if you're a progressive force or on the left in the UK (and the SNP did subtly do this last year) is to not pitch for voters who won't back you anyway. We are close to a tipping point where appealing to 'over 65's' as nebulous as they are, doesn't pay electoral dividends.

Polling also shows older voters don't move towards supporting independence even if there were real net benefits to it; such as a lower cost of living. Younger voters do shift.

New voters are still strongly Yes. It's that middle working age bracket that's key.

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Sunak's main attack line today can not at all unfairly be summarised as "vote Labour and you will get pretty much what is happening right now". Maybe not the best election winning pitch, all told.

Posties on strike, rail workers on strike, nurses going on strike, ambulance workers going on strike, don’t risk chaos by voting Labour!

The problem for Labour is when strikes abate, inflation drops but the country is still wanting to give the Tories a kicking, that might throw a few of the blows if Labour have nothing to offer that isn't something new and beyond what we've seen over the past decade. Which in recent weeks isn't an unfair criticism.

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Nothing beats this parody gem.

And yes, the cost of children's shoes was actually something politicians talked about

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SNP leadership election results expected 7-8pm.

Flynn started out as frontrunner, but his choice of Mhairi Black as his running mate appears to have ruffled feathers, and lost him some votes. Thewliss, now bearing the mantle of de facto pro-Sturgeon candidate has picked the more low-key Stuart MacDonald (SNP Shadow Home Sec) as her running mate.

Whispers that Thewliss may now be slightly favoured, and the race is expected to be close.

In the end Flynn won. Mhairi Black as Depute has indeed ruffled feathers and is a shot across the bow towards a certain clique

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What makes Mhairi Black ruffle feathers?

She's an outspoken trans inclusive lesbian feminist.