UK General Discussion: Rishecession

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YouGov have given Labour it's largest lead (17pts) in any poll since the firm was founded in 2001.

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https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575142490000302080?s=20&t=3QmQ2yPXS...

The Queen is more likely to rise from her grave and comment.

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There's honestly a real possibility - I will go no further! Simply a possibility - that the walls cave in on all sides.

There are various means by which the Tories can carefully orchestrate their own exit strategy. It is apparent they don't really want to keep going until the term ends, because there's almost zero chance of a return to growth, or have another 'contest' as the MP's don't trust/like their own hollowed out membership who get to decide.

There's an appetite for opposition.

Labour are chipper because there's genuinely, a dawning inevitably where it matters, (press and business) that they will win. Starmer isn't stellar, but there can never be another 'Blair' because there will never be one nor does anyone want one (because looking back, personality wise, we're too jaded to see that style anything other than rightfully, 'cringe'.)

Labour can project anything they want onto him when the time comes because when the time comes, Labour will probably have to be more redistributionist and progressive in taxation than they let on. And the public have an appetite for that anyway, in part to the current governments 'fill your boots' action on COVID and energy bills (which first lifted Labour in the polls earlier this summer.)

The Bank of England and the IMF have taken the government out back to be shot.

It's when and how this happens that needs to be determined.

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So, if Truss is the Kim Campbell in this hilarious scenario, who would the Jean Charest and Elsie Wayne be?

Ian Blackford as LoTO...

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Scene: Truss shakes hands with Queen.

Scratch

'Yup. That's me. You might be wondering how I got here...'

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Absolutely fascinating article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1575756143401394176

The Tories, overnight, became the most economically right wing party in the developed world, despite their own voters being marginally left wing (by international comparison)

They have set sail away from their own voters.

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Even Larry doesn't want anything to do with her.
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1575612283719278593

'I don't know her.'

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We had the Jenkins Commission way back which suggested AV with additional list seats. In 2011 it was pure AV which was arguably less proportionate than the present system.

I would expect a reheated Jenkins proposal or a Scottish/Welsh/London system. Whatever can be done to retain relatively compact single member seats.

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And partly in response to that utterly unhinged Clarke interview, the "no mandate" aspect of this is now being picked up even by some of our usually bovinely compliant lobby journalists.

So in the light of the way things *could* go this coming winter, a few polling figures to remember - the biggest ever Labour lead is 43 points, their highest ever score 63%, the lowest ever Tory rating 17%.

Also less 'don't knows' in the raw data than usual. Which further legitimises the lead.

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Curious- why do people think that the poll collapse has been so large?

Bernard castle, the 2008 financial crash and other such events didn’t cause such a huge and sudden shift- is it the 45p/bankers bonus angle? The impact on pensions/mortgage rates?

Lethargy.

We think of Black Wednesday as a similar event, but the election of John Smith a few months earlier turned the polls. We think of Blair as cementing the 'big' leads, but that was also John Smith.

This is a sharper and harder poll shift, than Black Wednesday but it's been in the making for some time. It was 'Partygate' last Christmas that was the most recent shift. That all fed into the 'Tories look after their own and don't care about you.' narrative which always gets them in the end

And the public do, even when they are in the sh-tter, think Labour 'cares'

There's a lot of public support for things like strikes, nationalisation that in terms of polling hasn't been seen for decades. The Tories COVID poll highs was exactly because they pursued state intervention.

So the Tories are probably much further away from where the general public stands on such things even than in the years preceding 1997.

It's why a genuinely substantial loss isn't out of the question.

When a Labour government becomes inevitable in the public consciousness, then it happens.

And that's exactly what the last week was about too.

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Labour up 23 points since 2019 and Tories down 24 points. That's compared to 19 points and and 21 points in their national poll.

So a larger swing in the marginals, which is something that tends to happen in national elections.

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https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

Lib Dems could potentially overperform depending on what happens with tactical voting, but I'm not quite well-informed enough on British politics to wager as to whether or not that is actually likely.

I know that by-elections are not nearly as much of a national barometer in the UK as special elections in the US, but if we read the entrails from recent by-elections, with a grain of salt or otherwise, it does seem like the Lib Dems are finally regaining credibility as a tactical "anyone but the Tories" option in rural Southern and Welsh seats without much of a natural Labour vote.

That’s what my thinking is as well. I don’t think they’d pick up much in Wales (maybe Brecon and Radnorshire under the current boundaries), but definitely southern England as a whole. The Red Wall polling is pretty clear that it’s going to bounce back to Labour at this point, but we could see the Blue Wall crumble and that will be interesting to see polling from there (I know a pollster or two have surveyed that area more thoroughly, but not recently).

Despite a bad election in 2019, there were certainly quite positive trends for the Lib Dems in areas to the west of London. As a party they have been caught short by the last two elections being 'snap' and Brexit heavy. I think this time they are in contention in at least 15-20 seats higher than a simple setting would suggest if there was a snap election. If Truss goes to the very end and it's a rout? Easily more.

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As expected (and seen in subsamples) direct Tory to Labour switching, which based on historic voting patterns is probably an easier thing to expect of 2019 Scottish Tory voters. Tory fall marginally bigger than I would have expected. SNP effectively unchanged. Independence support at 49% in both published polls today.

But yeah, a few Labour gains from the SNP probable as well as SNP gaining all seats from the Tories to compensate. I wouldn't expect much 'muh union' tactical voting to save them if they have tanked that strongly.

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To be fair to Foot, in the short window between his election as leader and the foundation of the SDP, he opened up a sizable lead over the Tories.

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Sturgeon got some media flack (particularly in Scotland) for saying she 'detests Tories'... at least until Twitter backed her.

Again, good PR. She said she preferred a Labour government, but that it wouldn't go far enough.

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There's a much simpler explanation. She is a Lib Dem, but she's not a sleeper agent, this is just what a lot of early 90s Lib Dems were like in terms of both ideology and competence.

The IEA's Mark Littlewood was o/c a senior LibDem apparatchik until 2009.

Is it known where Truss was on the Lib Dem spectrum in her Oxford days?  (Other than "mad"...)

I think 'mad' is probably sufficient. She jumped on the Titanic as it was going down.

She was apparently in the Hayek society.

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The butterfly effect from eating a bacon sandwich was really something wasn't it.

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Motion to rename the megathread "UK General Discussion: The Hunt for Red October"?

Should be “The C*nt for Red October” if we’re doing this.

Ofc, you are 100% correct, excuse me while I commit honorable seppuku, please suggest the based names from here on out…

Conservatopia, you know what to do.

Hunt, for 'In the Red' October.

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At what point is it reasonable to declare someone the worst PM in modern British history? Asking for a friend.

Well, it was probably reasonable about 10 days ago.  Now it's a virtual lock.  Since, I really couldn't name a PM between Churchill and Thatcher, I did a little googling about PM rankings and amusingly, the latest organization that periodically does an academic survey to rank Postwar PMs is--The University of Leeds.  Leeds of course being the town that Truss was so traumatized growing up in during the Thatcher-Major years and the University where her father (who in no way supports her being PM) is an emeritus professor.

There isn't one significant positive quality in an; 'oh she handled that well' way.

I can pick out dozens for PMs I despised. But nothing for her. The energy bill freeze was a bare minimum that would have under any circumstance.

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The fact that they’re scaling the energy price support really shows how deep the hole must be.

The fact it was for two years, rather than something more flexible to falling prices was the first misstep. It was just superceded by other events.

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But they simply aren't going to call an election if they are aeons behind in the polls.

The polls are, probably as bad as they could ever get. A 1997 rout is preferable to a 'break the model' level of destruction. So yeah, they still have time on their side.

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But they simply aren't going to call an election if they are aeons behind in the polls.

The polls are, probably as bad as they could ever get. A 1997 rout is preferable to a 'break the model' level of destruction. So yeah, they still have time on their side.

You would certainly *think* so, but.....

Yes.

As I mentioned in the other place

We are currently the same distance away from the final possible GE date as late January 1995 was for the Major government; a period where they were polling at their worst. The average (polls 15 days before to after that date) was CON 25, LAB 57, LD 14 compared to 24-50-10 with Politico today.

So it's bad.

In terms of polling averages, not just individual polls from back in the days where you had to wait for them, this is probably the worst polling for the Tories in their history.

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Anyone know why Pendle sticks out in the MRP?

Looks like over-reliance on regional subsamples. Some very odd numbers for e.g. Wales as well.

I thought so at first but also in the North West there's Labour winning Macclesfield and South Ribble, and within 5 points of gaining Penrith and the Border. Romford but not Cities of London and Westminster.

As seems to be case in polling, is every part of the country and every part of the electorate swings one way, then MRP struggles somewhat.