UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/NdomitableNegro/status/1767375689693475003

Funny if true.

[afleitch]

There's no right time to call an election.

Reform is an itch that won't yet, go away and the PM risks defections from MP's likely to lose their seats anyway.

Major had eighteen months or so of relative party stability, economic growth and a recovering poll position. The Tories have nothing like that now.

Going after the locals in May just risks a bloodbath with activists just when they are needed.

[afleitch]

Very mild recovery with R&W. Not as strong as with Survation which was the best result since last April, but that's pretty much a house effect with R&W; marginal changes at Westminster. Bouncy, bouncy at Holyrood.

Holyrood polling is just for fun at the moment; eighteen months to two years into a Labour government who knows what the situation will be. A popular Labour government is a big long term risk for the SNP. An unpopular one, an opportunity.

[afleitch]

As with the King, here's to stability and recovery as soon as possible.

[afleitch]

How damaging will this scandal be for the DUP?

The DUP are the worst party in the British political scene by a country mile; shameless nativist anti-Catholic religious cultists.

('but SNP same hur dur'-yeah go f-inks yourselves)

[afleitch]

Effectively he chose to take control of a Green 'controlling vote' which would likely have seen the agreement end. The core media narrative is entirely out of his control. It also makes sense, to some extent, to do this prior to the GE campaign.

While it makes getting to May 2026 legislatively tougher, any triggered earlier election would only fill the gap to May 2026 anyway.

On that point there has been a great deal of disgruntlement over Labour and the Lib Dems voting in favour of the big media circus legislation; the GRA, Hate Crime bill then memory holing it and leaving the government to hang. There's more bills of that nature in the pipeline, so it might help somewhat that there's no formal coalition and more deliberate cross party legislation.

[afleitch]

Yes. Basically a VONC doesn't dissolve the parliament. The First Minister would be out, but Parliament still has 28 days to find a successor who needs a simple majority vote even with abstentions. Only after that, or a 2/3rds vote would there be an extraordinary general election.

Which no one wants because it's a UK GE 'year' and any new administration has it's mandate up by May 2026.

[afleitch]

Basically no one wants an election in the late summer that will probably produce a result where no party can govern without significant cross-party support even with abstention. Labour as the largest party with the Tories dry humping their leg isn't something it wants for 2026 never mind this year.

[afleitch]

Swinney is the most unobjectionable leader from a party and media engagement perspective. If he wants the job, he will likely get it unchallenged.

Those who really want the job will not want it now or frankly any time before the next Holyrood election.

[afleitch]

Albeit that that is somewhat dependent on the result of the next Westminster election and which SNP parliamentarians find themselves on the hunt for a seat. Most of the SNP talent is at Holyrood, but there are a couple of Westminster figures who would presumably do respectably in a leadership contest and some of them are in seats that are at least somewhat vulnerable.

Well yes; there may be an influx of former MP's who make the move to Holyrood which (being a better organised bunch) would give the party, even in opposition, a better pool of talent.

Westminster leader Stephen Flynn won Aberdeen South against expectations in 2019 rather than enter Holyrood as expected.


https://twitter.com/Scott_Wortley/status/1783793030794715317

A useful run down of how the 'no confidence to election' pipeline works. Which ultimately could be a 'dog catches car' moment for those proposing it.

[afleitch]

The leadership was always Swinney's if he wants it. There was disappointment when he didn't run last year and perhaps some personal regret in him for not doing so given how acrimonious it was.

Likely to see a Green abstention allowing the government to continue.

[afleitch]

I think she's ideologically in some sort of transition (her response to the P&O sackings etc), but it's still a defection from the right of the party. By someone who isn't moving further right.

[afleitch]

Laughter aside, a major issue is simply that Sunak has all of the very late Richard Crossman's faults without any of his good points. Crossman used to correct the grammar of his civil servants, and by all accounts Sunak treats his MPs in a similar manner: he believes himself to be much more intelligent than anyone else in the room and has a compulsion to show it in a way that often involves humiliating other people.

And Tory MPs tend not to like humiliation unless they are paying for it.