UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[afleitch]

Kate Forbes advocacy is disproportionally coming from outside of the party. Or from people who think THAT ISSUE is of overinflated relevance to the public, the party or to Sturgeon's resignation. Or to Kate Forbes.

Socon views aside, Forbes is actually a Sturgeon loyalist. There's also very little indication that she has any particular desire for the job.

The issue for the SNP is that it's more stridently Sturgeonist West of Scotland talent is at Westminster, but at Holyrood, it's talent is broadly from more established and from older SNP backgrounds/areas of the country.

The streamlining of the Cabinet may also make people overlook talent outside of it; Angela Constance, Jamie Hepburn etc.

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The SNP membership isn't particularly factional and some of the more obstinate members left in early 2021. The youth wing is substantial and the active membership base remains quite broadly Central Belt.

[afleitch]

I wouldn't hedge too much on that pool. The VI figures are extrapolated by the commissioner of the poll by excluding those not declaring a preference. YouGov have not made that adjustment themselves.

A November poll that it is compared to, was never published.

A slightly earlier poll from Survation;

https://mobile.twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1626585163038863360

Taken during the absolute heat of the prisoners row. Why it was sat on, is anyone's guess.

Both polls have fieldwork from before Sturgeon's departure, with YouGov having one day including the news.

[afleitch]

First post resignation poll

https://mobile.twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1626657738146164736

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1627726566343032832

😂

[afleitch]

What I've found interesting in recent years is how the once 'reputable' right wing press have trashed themselves by choice. In the US you can argue there was some market demand for our but given sliding sales and online engagement, everything from constant TERF pieces, to Roald Dahl, to obsessions over Meghan... you're finding a more reasonable, in terms to what issues actually matter to most people, outlook in the red tops.

I say by 'choice'. There's some proprietary or editorial pressure on the scales of course.

[afleitch]

I don’t know what you’re talking about. It’s a rite of passage for every Scottish child to sneak out in the dead of night, and retrieve an English newspaper from the local black market (or as we called them, newsagents).

Scottish people of a certain age who in their prime reads nothing but the Record seem to do that openly now.

[afleitch]

It's all very strange. There's been next to no actual media coverage/saturation of 'people in boats'. Not even on Twitter. Certainly in comparison to the Sangatte reporting a few years back.

The government has decided this is a problem, that a 'showdown' is needed...before it's in the public consciousness. Not to say it won't be, but there's a weird disconnect.

[afleitch]

Ferrets, sacks, etc.

Unfortunately we're all stuck in the sack with them.

[afleitch]

And an episode of David Attenborough's latest and probably last nature documentary cut from broadcast too. Because 'rewilding' annoys conservatives.

[afleitch]

Lineker may be the British equivalent of #resistance liberals in the US, and his politics are superficial & sophomoric…

But the BBC have behaved shamefully here; the corporation that used the world service to broadcast messages of defiance against the Nazis, that’s been banned in Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Zimbabwe etc is cowering in the face of the bruised egos of the Tory government. It’s pathetic, disgraceful and heads need to roll starting with Sharpe & Bruce.

Yeah. He's very popular amongst colleagues and other journos. More than that, the public tend to have more engagement with sports than news, so the audience reach of this saga is broader.

It also shines a helpful light on the right wing 'cancellation' free speech grift given the silence of a lot of the major actors or agreement with the suspension. Interesting to see the contortion and the backlash.

[afleitch]

Certain heids explode

https://mobile.twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1640820255080554496

[afleitch]

So, Braverman and Sunak focusing on the...'community origin' of the gangs. Is anyone else getting vibes here or is it just me?

[afleitch]

Clearly not the most joyous of days, but the...'theatrics' of Police Scotland; the tent in the garden, the dozen officers to carry out a few small boxes hasn't gone unnoticed.

[afleitch]

Are these the small boxes? Because they seem pretty hefty to me.
https://mobile.twitter.com/LauraAlderman_/status/1643636006111805440

Look how they struggled to carry them.

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We can agree on this being a serious matter while at the same time being conscious of some of the theatrics of public police responses, the Home Office raid near me where twenty police guarded a transit van while locals handed out food and similar presences various football and march related events.

[afleitch]

It’s all speculation at the minute - but you can see where it comes from. As has been pointed out by ever Scottish journalist at this point, there were three “responsible party officers” on the SNP’s last audit. Two (Murrell and Beattie) have been arrested, the other is Nicola Sturgeon…

It is a requirement of electoral law that the party leader is one of the "responsible party officers" in accounts filed with the Electoral Commission. Given two arrests and release without charge (rather than interviews under caution, as has been noted) they have to be very careful in doing the same to someone named in the accounts for administrative purposes only.

[afleitch]

A little point on polling.

Some companies poll weekly, others monthly, some stop and start.

That can affect trend lines. Taking the average of each firms polls since January there are 15 outfits who polled.

Labour's average lead across all firms is as follows

Jan: 20
Feb: 22
Mar: 19
April: 16
May: 16 (so far).

If we take out 5 irregular firms; some who haven't polled since March or just started we get;

Jan: 20
Feb: 20
Mar: 18
April: 16
May: 17 (so far).

If we leave the 7 firms who also polled before the last GE we get;

Jan: 19
Feb: 19
Mar: 17
April: 16
May: 17 (so far)

That excludes established firms like Ipsos who have been quiet and ICM who haven't polled at all.

So the more consistent the polling and the pollster, that 6 point drop since February is reduced to only 2.

[afleitch]

Would need to see the figures/demographics the model uses. Ipsos Mori have just given a 12pt SNP lead.

[afleitch]

Also 'Yes' was polling at this level in Scotland in late 2013/ early 2014, but with a large number of undecideds.

[afleitch]

It does suggest that we may be nearing the point of charges/no charges being made into the investigation. One outcome will certainly rattle the SNP in the short to medium term. Another would probably galvanise support.

I do think in the meantime Sturgeon should probably be suspended from the SNP as a sitting representative.

[afleitch]

I would probably take that stance in his position tbf.

Of course if she is actually charged, then that is very much another matter.

There's less to be lost in taking that position atm on the back of Sturgeon, unusually, publicly stating that she's innocent.

If she's charged, as you say, that's a different matter.

Removing the whip from her would have its advantages though - it would allow him to distance himself from the utter sh*tshow surrounding her, and finally enable him to carve out his own political identity (I know he’s only been in the job a couple of months, but he's been almost completely invisible during that time).

That being said, it would also require a level of ruthlessness which just clearly isn’t there. I know it’s a unionist talking point, but the narrative that it’s really the Greens in charge seems hard to dismiss out of hand at the moment.

I would have agreed before Sturgeon's intervention. That makes it more difficult in that if what she says is true, and there are no charges, Humza will get no love from his own party. If what she says is true, but there are still charges taken up, she can be suspended prior to any outcome. Which isn't in the slightest bit controversial.

If he suspended her last night, he would get no love from unionists or the SNP rent-a-quotes either. Nothing has been lost in taking this decision. Nothing is gained by doing so.

[afleitch]

Part of the SNP's recent problems has been it's absolute failure to discipline the awkward squad. Who curiously seem to always be platformed by the party's detractors. It stands Humza in good stead to start now.

[afleitch]

The very funny context for those unaware is that Ewing is the son of Winnie Ewing- one of the most high profile SNP figures in the 70s who really started the first wave of panic among Labour about Scotland.

After she lost in '79 iirc it basically caused a nasty bout of SNP infighting which led to the strange (even by Labour standards) internal culture- a sign of that was that in 1990 Alex Salmond (yes him!) was in a leadership race against Winnie Erwing. Salmond won and was then replaced in 2000 by someone who would remain as Deputy leader of the SNP until this year!

In 1990 Winnie Ewing was no longer an MP (though still a MEP) It was Margaret Ewing, her daughter in law, who Salmond defeated - IIRC it was seen as a bit of a surprise result at the time.

The 1990 leadership election had similar campaign style, membership engagement and ideological factions as this years. It even had the same factional figures such as Neil and Sillars heavily briefing against Salmond.

With Humza, interestingly being 'the Salmond' (and note Salmond has not been particularly critical of him) as the more left wing, member engaging candidate.

[afleitch]

Only to an extent. Annabel Ewing is much more suited to Cowdenbeath than she was to Perth.

[afleitch]

SNP 'implosion' narratives seem incredibly short sighted and also extremely interesting to watch from my perspective.

[afleitch]

There are a lot of reasons to be critical of Zac Goldsmith, but the line about Sunak's lack of interest in environmental issues is spot on.

He's an odd character. Originally seen as a fresh, liberal face of conservatism (despite sharing his father's views on the EU) he then ran a baiting campaign for London Mayor. Always been an environmentalist. One of Johnson's most staunch allies. Lacking in charisma and personality despite being telegenic and articulate (in this sense he reminds me of the current Heir to the Throne, who also has an eccentric father as it happens).

And a good reminder that Australian style politics doesn’t always work…

I don't think it's ever worked, yet is a constant playbook

The Brexit campaign and outcome was textbook British tabloid, forty years in the making.

Though the Tories have now gone transatlantic (lol) and adopting the GOPs midterm losing strategy that will likely not work and tank everyone's reputation in the process.