UK Local Elections 2022

[afleitch]

To add to Torrains excellent analysis, the last Scottish locals were held on 4th May 2017, smack bang in the middle of an unexpected GE campaign.

The Tories polled 25% of first preference votes at a time when they were polling a whopping 30% in the Scottish polls. Labour polled 20% at a time when they were on about 16% on average. This was before Labours strong climb to the finish line in what was an exceptional time.

We only have Scottish Parliament polls to compare with and the Tories are on 20% and Labour 23%.

The SNP have taken home about a third of the vote in each election since 2007.

What complicates matters this time round is that the Greens are polling around 13%

They may find themselves in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh getting a good vote spread, if they are restricted to one candidate by 3 or 4 member ward,  to get comfortably elected in their target wards. Green second preferences will be important for SNP v Labour contests here.

[afleitch]

It's essentially saying that the only measurable Labour gains and Conservative loses are due to a 're-sort' in unionist preferences in Scotland.

Bold.

[afleitch]

Bit later to vote today, as because there's preference voting I had to spend some time ensuring I wasn't voting for an existing or budding TERF loon who'd be commenting on toilets at every planning meeting.

[afleitch]

Done.

Four seater ward

SNP 1 and 2.
Greens 3 (almost placed them higher)
TUSC 4
Labour 5 and 6
Lib Dems 7

No preferences for Tories or ALBA

[afleitch]

Greens topped the vote in my ward in Glasgow which is quite sensational.

[afleitch]

Much of the punditry on these results has somehow managed to be even worse than usual.

In part because it's harder. Much of the results are not due to 'Brexit' but wider demographic cleavages in age and geography. But that requires engagement with why, that can't be brushed off with 'elites' or 'wokes' or arising 'red walls'.

[afleitch]

A few thoughts on Scotland.

Arguably, Labour underperformed in terms of seats. Again an unanticipated surge for the Lib Dems and the Greens. They had done noticeable advancements, but also a number of stand stills.

The Tories could argue it could have been worse. But it was pretty fkn bad. Lots of demographic churn. 5th in Edinburgh, and it's only two Glasgow wins being a bit...orangey.

The SNP picked up the most seats of any party. It secured it's best local election result in terms of seats and possibly vote share ever.

After 15 years of government.

Lib Dems will be happy.

Greens too.

[afleitch]

Party vote map Scotland

Colours should be self explanatory. If I use a lighter colour, it means it was won by 'Independents' but is coloured by which party came second. In some cases by a little, in others like Orkney and Shetland a lot (which is why it looks Green).

Grey is where independents won everything

Dark grey is where no election was held because the number of nominated candidates matched the total number of STV seats awarded so there was no need for an election.

With thanks to the sublime BallotBox Scotland for access to a results database

[afleitch]

snip

Excellent work, thanks.

The map suggests why Labour, despite their relatively small number of gains will be quietly pleased with the results, because its genuinely striking how similar their contours are (with if you were being picky a couple of swaps: coatbridge for  west dunbartonshire and the hamilton seats for each other) with the 2017 general election map, the solitary time in the last decade where the party had reason to be optimistic.

To an extent I'd agree with you.

Compared with the 2017 locals, on 'topping the ward' Labour have moved forward but also fallen back. They topped 9 wards in North Lanarkshire in 2017, now just 3. They have of course 'bled; into Glasgow. You are seeing a lot of consolidation in Labour 'rumps' that have established themselves as redoubts during various Labour collapses; so south east Edinburgh (since 2015), Dumbartonshire, East Lothian etc but there's no overall pattern to their support. The same is true of the Lib Dems who have went absolutely turbo in their own hold outs and went into the stratosphere in Broughty Ferry of all places.

Results in Perthshire and Angus is now the third set of elections since the 2017 upsets where we've seen the SNP start to claw back a lead, but not anything close to what the party can now achieve in the central belt.

[afleitch]

On the topic of capitals, something else I mentioned on Bizarro Atlas; the Conservative vote share in Edinburgh of 17.5% was the lowest since 1970 (before the current local government existed) back when the Progressives were still a force.

Something lost in otherwise 'could have been worse' results.

[afleitch]

So the excellent Ballotbox Scotland has collated the polling district results for Glasgow. Most of the districts are still easily collapsable into the old 1999-2007 wards; the last to be fought on the old FTP.

So here are the results



You're probably thinking; 'help'

So here's a quick analysis. SNP support is across the city and elsewhere so wide that's it's hard to tie it to any set of indicators, but it does tend to be younger.

It's much easier to look at the 'not SNP' pattern of support.

Labour

For Labour it's very much tied to two factors; age and Tory-ness. Labour are dominant in the old middle class wards that used to vote Lib Dem and long before, Tory. You can see this in places like Kelvindale and Jordanhill. Here very strong Tory performances collapsed with most of the first preferences (which is what these tally) going to Labour. They are also strong in other older post-war peripheral middle class estates in places like Mount Vernon. They don't perform as strongly in places straddling the East Renfrewshire boundary (a council where the SNP made strong advances this year) in places like Newlands and Cathcart. More on that later.

Labour also have some strengths but also some weaknesses in many of the post-war overspill estates; Drumchapel, Easterhouse, Pollok (but not Castlemilk) where there is an aging population and period of both population decline and housing demolition.

A few other Labour successes are in the 'villages' of Robroyston and Carmunnock again for reasons above.

In terms of 'sectarianism' Labour perform well in known 'Orange' boltholes in the city; places like Bridgeton and Shettleston.

Also worth noting they won Kingston and Anderston which are the most Hindu parts of Glasgow.

Green

It's hard not to speak of the Greens without understanding the long standing 'osmosis' between SNP and Green voting in Glasgow. There are three pockets of Green support.

The first is the 'West End'; not the mansions further west, but around the University. This is the earliest base of Green support; Hillhead. But Green support there isn't just students; with successes in Hayburn and Kelvingrove (home of the 'talked about in the Sunday supplements' Finnieston area), Green support is young (ie under 40) and those who have created areas of city living.

The second smaller pocket is Dennistoun which has a similar profile.

In the green pocket in the south of the city (which is where I live) Green support is strong in wards surrounding Queen's Park, and in another sunday supplement favourite; Strathbungo, But support is also found in more established but...'socially conscious' wards like Langside and Battlefield.

In short, where you 'want to be', or 'you're supposed to be', votes Green.

Also, the Green vote correlates very strongly where areas of 'No Religion' scored high in the last published census.

SNP

Everyone else.

In all seriousness, the 'donut' around the Green wards in the south of the city is Sturgeonland which has overflowed much beyond where she represents. There is a very strong correlation with the Muslim vote with both the SNP and the Green successes across the city.

The area around Govan is still a good area for the SNP as is Maryhill and most of the East End. There's still a very curious correlation between parts that voted SNP this year and where they performed well in the 'high water' locals as far back as 1968 and 1977, with some sectarian switching.

Speaking of, the SNP still performing well in Catholic parts of the city relative to Labour; the East End, Maryhill, the strip from the Gorbals to Castlemilk near the South Lanarkshire boundary.