Moray By-election (Holyrood)

[afleitch]

While the Moray seat to be contested is slightly smaller than the Westminster constituency (which covers the whole council), it contains the same centres of population.

In effect it is a rural seat, but with a fairly densely populated coast which is part of the 'commuter' belt for Inverness to the west. In it's verious forms it has seen both Labour and the Conservatives place second, but Labour have fallen back. This is a seat where the Conservatives are the challengers and need to finish in a respectable second place.

The second issue is, if Labour are experiencing swings against them in Scotland, in both Dunfermline at a national level and Milton Ward (King's Park is up for election on March 30th) at a local level where will the votes go if anywhere?

However this is a rural seat, which it makes it less easy to 'blitz' campaign amd it will depend on the strengths of each individual candidate.

Prediction: SNP HOLD.

I can't see the SNP loose this one.

[afleitch]

Ewing was one of few persons

www.alba.org.uk (the nasty nationalist site)

seem to like.

Its a very good site for stats and maps. But having a bias takes away much from the validity of their comments.

[afleitch]

and the LibDems are running the counciller for Keith (which is just outside the Holyrood consitutency), Linda Gorn.

Thats not going to sit too well

[afleitch]

Moray still growing then? Must be Inverness commuters.

Exactly. If it wasn't for the old regional boundaries (carried through asfter 1996) seperating Moray from the Highlands we would probably have seen a coastal seat stretching from the outskirts of Inverness, through Nairn and across the nortern Moray coastline. Similar to the pre 1983 seat of Moray and Nairn actually.

[afleitch]

The Nat candidate already is a list MSP. I suppose once he's directly elected, the list seat gets filled by the next person down the list? If so, wouldn't it be more honest to just run that person?

Thats the only problem with the list system; there is no by-election when a list MSP dies or resigns and as they constitute 56 of the 129 members it is it a bit absurd.

Having said that I cannot think of another way to do it. You could hold a whole 'regionwide' election- but financially it would cost a lot for the parties involved.

[afleitch]

I'm still a fan of the AMS under the d'Hondt system, however there may be calls for change if for example Labour poll lower than the SNP (unlikely) yet win more seats.

[afleitch]

I reckon they might as well switch to STV

They probably will. One of the main problems is the fact we have so many voting systems

Westminster FPTP
Holyrood FPTP where the seats are different
Holyrood AMS using unnatural regions left over from the old EU boundaries
Council STV from 2007

And thats not including the Euro elections

The public are confused; even those who follow politics closely. I will be watching closely in 2007 to see if the Executive publicly explains the council voting system. Though I've been privatly told by an ex-Labour friend of mine (now in the SNP) that Labour would rather not explain any of the PR systems as electorate confusion helps them out come election time

[afleitch]

Look at this little gem from the Lib Dems

http://www.scotlibdems.org.uk/news/0604121.shtml

Just two weeks before polling in the Scottish Parliamentary by-election for Moray - a private poll carried out by Linda Gorn’s Lib Dem campaign team has revealed that it’s shaping up to be a close two horse race between the Liberal Democrat candidate and the SNP come election day on April 27th.

The poll is based on 600 local voters who were canvassed at the end of the first full week of campaigning. The results of the survey are as follows: SNP 35.3%
Liberal Democrats 32.0%
Conservatives 18.4%
Labour 10.2%
Don’t Know 4.1%


Commenting on the survey results Linda Gorn said

“These figures prove what is clear out on the doorsteps –the Tory campaign seems to have turned the voters off and their support in Moray has collapsed. More and more people are now switching their votes to the Lib Dems. We are closing the gap on the SNP and winning fresh support from all corners every day.”

----------------------------------

I wonder what member of the Lib Dem campaign team made up that little poll 600 people in Moray - thats quite a number to poll...Sadly there are no classic ' Lib Dem Win Here bar charts' on the site.

[afleitch]

So where will Tory votes go?

To the Tories? They should finish second in  Moray and the SNP seem worried that the Tories could at the very least be taking votes away from their candidate and might even have a chance of winning the seat. 

Thats actually what I've been hearing. The Tories made a strong start to the campign too, and I wonder how this will affect it. I'm hoping to see Labours vote fall as it will be yet another example of the possible double figure swing away from them that appears to be happening.

[afleitch]

Not heard anything

It's been affected by 'yellow noise'; Liberal Democratic supporters overhyping their own position throughout the campaign. So much of the information coming through is unreliable I'd say.

[afleitch]

Seems to be have been rainy today.

SNP 'confident' of victory- but it's tight

While I would like to believe the Tories will finish second I have a bad feeling about a Lib Dem surge cause by Labour voters (remembering Labour fished 3rd last time round) switching to the Lib Dems.

[afleitch]

Yes- Brian Taylor is a stellar analyst (he got the Lib Dem surge in Dunfermline before the betting markets did). SNP should be relieved. As for Labour- the swing is important.

[afleitch]

If we (Tories) come third then that is a thoroughly risible result. Heads should roll for this; I hope the constituency agent/organiser is never hired again.

If the Tories come third, but with an increased % vote (remember, the Tories were pretty far behind - there are dozens of other seats they wish to target in 2007 before Moray) then it will be an acceptable result.

[afleitch]

Oh the debate on Scottish TV is fantastic - Alex Salmond is savaging the Lib Dems fraudulent election campaign. Northern Scot newspaper praised for exposing Lib Dems 'deceit.'

[afleitch]

Apparently: SNP first, Con in 2nd up 2 %, Lib Dem 3rd, Labour..well..

[afleitch]

DECLARATION:

Mr. Richard Neilson Lochhead, SNP    12653   46.14%
Mrs. Mary Scanlon, Con     6268   22.85%
Mrs. Linda June Gorn, LDm     5310   19.36%
Mr. Alexander Keith, Lab     2696    9.83%
Mr. Melville Brown, LocHosp      493    1.79%
Total    27420   45.05%
SNP Majority      6385    23.29%
SNP Hold

SNP UP 3.95
CON UP 0.35
LIB UP 7.19
LAB DOWN 9.28

[afleitch]

Apparently Labours skin was marginally saved by postal votes sent before the recent debacle. Without them Labour 'probably closer to 6%' allegedly