UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[afleitch]

I don't know if I want him to go; I'm concerned aboutwhat ghoul will follow him.

And when he does go, the Tories will get to reset the clock once again with the English electorate.

That trick always works, until the time it doesn't.

Frankly after a certain point you're left floundering in the same situation as New Zealand Labour in the early 1990s. One of Johnson's main plus points for his party has been that while he has rarely been popular (except for when he nearly died of the Rona) as such, he does have an electoral fan club* that is personal and probably not transferrable to others and an image - which he has always been good at exploiting - of very much not being a generic Tory, even though he is very much a Tory.

_{*It isn't big, but it doesn't have to be to be a boon given FPTP. Blair had a similar following.}

What's worse is that Brexit Boris' fan club know he's a sh-t. They go cold on him when he's being halfway competent, which at the same time makes his Mayor Boris fan club warm to him again.

[afleitch]

Well, it'll be off the front pages tomorrow now anyway.

Nope.

The Sun: "Do as I say, not as I Christmas Do"
Daily Mail: "One rule for them, new rules for the rest of us"
Daily Telegraph: "Don't go to work, but do go to parties"

Yes, that's the Sun, the Mail and the Telegraph.

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1468724571876597764

Pleased to be proven wrong.

[afleitch]

The detractors, on a number of issues on both style and policy, in retrospect weren't wrong. But what they themselves supported was far worse.

Worth noting that iirc, 2001 saw voters continue to move from Tory to Labour in response to New Labour in action, but this was cancelled out by long term Labour voters not voting.

[afleitch]

My concern today is that the COVID response, which up to now hasn't been particularly partisan in the UK will now be undermined by backbenchers. Regardless of whether Boris stays, if it results in winter chaos it screws up the whole parliamentary party; 'x voted against to get back at Boris and y was the result'.

Part of Starmers crutch so far is that due to the exceptional political situation we've been in, he didn't really have a platform.

Labour have been rising and the Tories dropping in the polls since the summer in line with things getting more... normal. But he needs to be less conciliatory in order to maintain a poll lead.

There was a stench of death 11 years into the last Tory government too. But it held on.

[afleitch]

My concern today is that the COVID response, which up to now hasn't been particularly partisan in the UK will now be undermined by backbenchers. Regardless of whether Boris stays, if it results in winter chaos it screws up the whole parliamentary party; 'x voted against to get back at Boris and y was the result'.

Part of Starmers crutch so far is that due to the exceptional political situation we've been in, he didn't really have a platform.

Labour have been rising and the Tories dropping in the polls since the summer in line with things getting more... normal. But he needs to be less conciliatory in order to maintain a poll lead.

There was a stench of death 11 years into the last Tory government too. But it held on.

Which may be a reason why Starmer's decision to back the government in the coming week's vote is smart longer term, despite the moaning from the usual suspects (on left and right)

I mean the measures themselves are not far off the situation in Scotland since the summer. Why there's an existential crisis over imposing them I have no idea.

[afleitch]

There won't be a lockdown.

The way 'out' is the vaccination programme. A pre-vaccine style lockdown is of no benefit. Delta hit early summer before the vaccine programme was extended to the under 40's and saw only marginal tiered restrictions. The new variant has hit at the same time in the rollout of the booster programme, therefore there's a need for marginal restrictions. The new variant is also hitting the same age groups, hence the far more accelerated booster rollout.

With both variants, it spreads because it circulates in the most mobile population who happen to be the last to be offered the vaccine. While better 'optics' than 'granny dying in a hospital corridor', hitting young people with wave after wave, particularly as it can reinfect those who had an earlier variant isn't ideal, which I think even the worst worm brained boomer politicians accept. Full lockdown is equally as damaging.

[afleitch]

Labour's poll advance is more pronounced given that they haven't advanced proportionally in Scotland or (subsample caveats) London, where they are maxed out. The Greens have also not taken a huge hit with Labour's advance and without a huge advance by BrexformKIP. It suggests a genuine movement to Labour, rather than that being a 'shared spoils' movement away from the Tories.

That means voters are thinking about Labour 'seriously.'

Also, Red Wall aside, the Tories biggest advance was amongst the 'ten years from retirement' cohort who have not had the best of times in terms of policy, despite efforts to play up the culture wars. Polls are showing a sizable swing back to Labour here.

[afleitch]

Going back to politics, to illustrate the present issues let us consider the following hypothetical. Imagine that you are a Conservative MP who either gained or held a seat at the last election by a margin slightly over the national average. Let's say the percentages were Con 50%, Lab 35%. Something like that. You would have spent most of this parliament feeling good about your re-election prospects. But taking uniform movement from recent polls and you're now on about 38% or so. This puts you deep into the danger zone on its own. Consider, though, the likelihood that your present theoretical number is a bit lower than that, because Conservative totals simply aren't going to be dropping that far in absolute terms in the inner cities, the Scottish Central Belt  or university constituencies. So about 36%. This puts you at a point where you would almost certainly lose if there were an election tomorrow. While things may well improve and you might be an optimist at heart, you would probably not be feeling very happy about this situation. The fact that this has happened so quickly would likely only make that feeling worse as there's an element of shock.

I agree.

And worse still, you can't rely on tried and tested assumptions about swingback, or incumbency because the electorate is extremely volatile. And underneath the surface of the huge Tory win in 2019 was a subtle drift away from them, relatively, in formerly impenetrably blue seats west of London. There's as much a shift in attitudes in the...'monied' towards a degree of social permissiveness alternate to that in the Pennsylvanian diners 'Red Wall'. If they revolt, against Boris, against the culture war/civil rights assault, or against the rash spending the Tories are in serious trouble.

Something, and no one has really figured out what, got Labour a very good result in 2017 (and it wasn't Corbyn) yet mass defections a two years later (which also probably wasn't as much to do with Corbyn in retrospect) These voters aren't completely lost to Labour as they are, and I don't think I'm speaking too soon here, in Scotland. Brexit has been realised. Sindy has not.

Indeed many of these voters probably reverted, at least privately, back to Labour they day after the election or the day after Brexit. Covid has just kicked up some dust.

In short, every election outcome, from another Tory landslide to a relative Labour landslide is equally as probable right now.

And MP's will hate that.

[afleitch]

More than that, vaccines were explicitly advocated as our "passport to freedom".

They still are. I do think there's been a bit of over ramping of the 'case numbers' because we're at the point where this doesn't matter as much as it did. If it's a stick to get people vaccinated then that's understandable. But they need to be careful with some of the alarmism.

Pre-Christmas restrictions would not only be deeply unpopular but probably too late. They were last year.

The 'too early to say' response to data from South Africa has less weight with each passing day. On that basis if we end up with a managable delta level pressure on the NHS, I doubt there will be any significant restrictions in the New Year.

Doubling up the booster with the winter flu jab prior to the new variant may also prove to be good foresight.

[afleitch]

There has to be some conservative MP who just wants to be remembered as prime minister and dammn everything else, who could run ?

They already have one as PM.

[afleitch]

Sunak is wonkish enough, and not a former Cameronite turned weird populist culture warrior to be a suitable 'emergency' PM for the Tories.

He made it to that high position just five years after being first elected which is extraordinary. He has no place to go but leader/PM or leave Parliament. I think this works in his favour.

[afleitch]

Lest we forget: UKIP were (briefly) the first semi-relevant party to have a "nonwhite" leader.

Though to be honest, I'm not entirely sure that I wasn't UKIP leader for a hot second.

[afleitch]

Oops

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cammy2487/status/1476509218022866946

[afleitch]

Forgive a tiny bit of leadership election speculation, but…

Truss is sat right behind Johnson, alongside Raab, clearly playing the role of supporter.

Sunak is on the other side of the country, literally putting as much distance between himself and Boris as possible.

'John Major at the dentist' energy.

[afleitch]

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe have  today officially condemned the UK along with, Hungary, Poland, Russia, and Turkey for attacks on the rights of LGBT+ people.

This is partially newsworthy for UK delegates car crash attempts to amend the resolution.

https://mobile.twitter.com/becca2uk/status/1485585969562673152

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenInLDN/status/1488838076432535554

Adding to issues over their treatment of Islamophobia and disability rights, there is no doubt that the EHRC is s partisan political body.

[afleitch]

Aside from the usual arguments about the Levelling Up white paper, is the extent to which any growth or new wealth generated actually stays within the community (a key principle of community wealth building) or creates long-term opportunities. So as well as investment in public transport etc., which I wholeheartedly want to see of course, I'm not 100% convinced that the money will be infusion - genuinely regenerating these places rather than transfusion - creation of new economic opportunities.

You can't effectively 'level up' without devolution of power and the mechanisms to control spending and get the benefit of economic output. Which the Tories are loathed to do.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jefflez/status/1489573009354641410

It gets worse

Absolute government capture of the human rights body.

[afleitch]

A very early example in Labour Party history of it beating itself up rather than the Tories.

[afleitch]

It's pretty much the intent of the Conservatives. I don't think they were ready to go full mask off until 2024, at the point at which every TV appearance is either cancelled, channeled through the new right wing rolling news or reduced to a series of memes.

We'll get much much more statements like these in the Commons because archaic parliamentary procedure punishes calling it out more than saying it.

[afleitch]

P&O Ferries sack staff effective immediately and have buses lined up of third party non-UK crew in buses outside the terminals but staff effectively refusing to leave the ships.

Absolute madness.

[afleitch]

I presume this is exploiting the odd area that is employment law at sea (not a subject that I know much about), because otherwise they have essentially have just sat on a hand grenade.

People are furiously checking, but some suggesting a part of EU employment law that wasn't carried over would have protected the workers.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1505989096350666752

Terf Island update.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1508714461653307407

Britain. 2022.