Scotland 2011 - Results Thread

[afleitch]

IDS just conceeded the Scottish Conservative chances of winning in Scotland.

"We've got on with Alex Salmond's crew in Scotland" and "I think the SNP have proably held on, much disappointment for Labour." Lobbying to be a coalition partner or something?

Remember, a coalition with the Tories is barred in the SNP's constitution.

[afleitch]

Tweet from BBC

'BBCScotelection: For the costituency vote it suggests SNP - 51%; Labour - 26%; Conservative - 12%; Others - 7%; Liberal Democrat - 4%. #sp11'

I have no idea who this is from and why it is being suggested.

[afleitch]

Tweet from BBC

'BBCScotelection: For the costituency vote it suggests SNP - 51%; Labour - 26%; Conservative - 12%; Others - 7%; Liberal Democrat - 4%. #sp11'

I have no idea who this is from and why it is being suggested.

...Oh god

It was a phone poll for the Daily Mail. Best to ignore it

[afleitch]

No results until about 2am. I'm working in the morning so I'll be sleeping through most of it

[afleitch]

I just woke up to check some results. Am I still dreaming?

[afleitch]

Shettleston has gone. Falkirk East to declare, probably SNP gain. SNP confident in Kelvin and Southside

Shettleston has gone...f-ck, first time a party other than Labour have won it since 1922.

[afleitch]

SNP gain Cumbernauld and Kilsyth.

McLethie say's he's lost Pentlands.

[afleitch]

Re-count in Glasgow Anniesland (!) SNP up by one vote. Renfrewshire North likely SNP gain.

[afleitch]

Thank f-ck Fergusson holds on in Galloway.

[afleitch]

SNP Gain Strathkelvin and Bearsden. 7.7% swing to the SNP
SNP Gain Edinburgh Pentlands.

[afleitch]

Elaine Murray back in for Labour in Dumfriesshire.

[afleitch]

SNP win Glasgow Kelvin. The SNP now hold half the consituency seats in Glasgow.

[afleitch]

SNP likely to have gained Edinburgh Central.

[afleitch]

SNP likely to have gained Cunninghame South
SNP just gained Edinburgh Western

[afleitch]

SNP gain Linlithgow
SNP apparently have gained Paisley

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

SNP gain Edinburgh Southern.

[afleitch]

-Old joke-

Jackie Baillie has won her seat in Dumbarton. If she wins one more she'll be able to sit down.

[afleitch]

John Curtice forecasts an SNP majority of 2.

In North East Scotland, the SNP won every constituency and still managed to get another MSP elected on the List. Greens will be lucky to break 3 seats.

[afleitch]

SNP have gained both Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and Skye Lochaber and Badenoch from the Lib Dems.

Seats still to declare.

Argyll & Bute - Expected SNP Hold
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane - Expected SNP Hold
Cowdenbeath - Expected Labour Hold
Dunfermline - Too close to call (see Edinburgh Southern)
Fife Mid & Glenrothes - Expected SNP Hold
Fife North East - Expected SNP Gain
Inverness & Nairn - Expected SNP Hold
Kirkcaldy - Too close to call
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) Expected SNP Hold
Stirling - Expected SNP Hold

[afleitch]

I have an issue with this set of figures...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/region/html/36139.stm

either the vote totals are wrong, or the seat distribution is. SNP should have one more list seat, Labour one fewer.

Yeah, I worked through the figures (remembering the plus one rule) and got;
LAB, SNP, GRN, CON, LAB, SNP, SNP.

Strange.

EDIT: Glasgow Herald have different regional figures.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/election-2011/results/glasgow

LAB: 34,99%
SNP: 39.82%
LIBDEM: 2.55%
CON: 6.11%
GREEN: 5.97%
RESPECT: 3.34%

[afleitch]

SNP GAIN Dunfermline, Fife North East and 'gain' Stirling.

Worth noting that in Inverness, the Lib Dems are now fourth.

[afleitch]

Kind of odd list of Labour seats... some of it is core heartland, but some that you'd call core heartland is gone, and meanwhile they still hold Dumbarton, Eastwood, and half of Dumfries - two of these because the race was seen as Labour vs Tory, with the SNP having no chance. Dumbarton is more mysterious - personal vote?

It's a very odd scenario; Dumbarton has stayed Labour but Clydebank and Milngavie has flipped to the SNP. I don't think it's a personal vote (unlike Elaine Murray or Ken McIntosh) but I am still genuinely suprised she held on.

Note some of the smaller swings in the more obvious marginals but massive swings in seats Labour genuinely didn't think would be a problem for them. Same as in 2007, but to a greater extent.

Labour have a problem; Holyrood was certainly the home of their second rate (or perhaps more kindly, B team) politicians. Most of them have now gone. Labour's new intake include many list MSP's who never thought they would win. More interestingly, it includes in some cases list MSP's who were assured that they would not win It's a blessing and a curse for Labour.

What the party needs is a greater degree of independence and UK Labour need to give them it. They should not be tempted to parachute in people from Westminster (no guarantee they would win in a by-election)

It has to understand what went wrong; not only to lose the election but to loose their core vote.

It's unfortunate these elections were not electronically counted; we could have had Polling District results released next year

[afleitch]

I'm sure some in the SNP are regretting adopting the policy of a referendum before independence.

[afleitch]

I'm colouring in my map. I really can't use green for the SNP any more