Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Dereich]

Hmmm....

https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?s=20

[Dereich]

It heavily strains credulity to say that a major disaster that causes major changes and disruptions across Ukraine happened entirely by coincidence on the first day of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive.

[Dereich]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-get-more-leopard-2-tanks-western-partners-2023-06-15/

"Ukraine to get more Leopard-2 tanks from Western partners"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65897919

"Ukraine war: The challenges of training F-16 pilots"

Ceaser 49BC:  I set forth to fight an army without a leader (Pompeian force in Hispania), so as later to fight a leader without an army (Pompey in Greece.)

Putin 2023AD: I set forth to fight a less well-trained Ukrainian army with advanced NATO weapons, so as later to fight a well-trained NATO army without advanced NATO weapons

An odd comparison for a lot of reasons. For one, there's no compelling reason to believe that NATO has given weaponry in sufficient quantity AND of sufficient quality to degrade their ability to fight a major war. Plenty of advanced air/missile systems and newer technologies that would be the cornerstones of any NATO war have not even been contemplated as aid. Even the Leopard tanks that Russian bloggers so gleefully dream of capturing have been in operation for 50 years. For another, the Russian army has acquitted itself so poorly on the battlefield that any talk of another war on their part against ANYONE let alone NATO is pure comedy.

[Dereich]

Where is Putin? Its odd we haven't seen or heard anything from him yet. Presumably he could put a stop to this pretty quickly if he made a public statement. Only possibilities I see are that he is unwilling to say anything or unable to.

[Dereich]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Terrible advice, as usual.
If the Ukrainians advance, it reinforces Prigozhin's platform that the RAF are run by incompetent generals and that he Russia's providential man.

If the events dislocate the front and Ukrainians don't advance, how will that benefit them in a week when the situation in Moscow is stabilised one way or another? It doesn't, unless you truly believe that a war fanatic such as Prigozhin would order a general retreat.

The front hasn’t changed yet though, Ukraine will need to wait a few more days to see where Russia moves resources from to deal with this before making its move

Its worth remembering that the Russian soldiers on the front in Ukraine have agency as well. Its a fair bet that most of them are following every update just like we are. Its also a fair bet that Prigozhin  (as a social media savvy ultranationalist who claims to be the one who REALLY cares about the soldiers) is pretty popular among a lot of the rank and file. There's got to be a lot of uncertainty about who to trust, what orders to follow, and what to do among Russian units in Ukraine. If the Ukrainians attack now the Russians on the front might find it easier to withdraw as they try to figure out who to listen to and what's going on at home.

[Dereich]

Please try to keep your posts about the new conflict in Russia in the new thread everyone; people a few weeks or months from now trying to go through Ukraine news will have to go through dozens of pages of posts not relevant to the war to get to it.

[Dereich]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672960189920624640

Obviously not. Going against the Kyiv defenses would be suicide, particularly with their attrition in Bakhmut and with the MoD cutting off Wagner's best recruiting methods. And speaking of the Ministry of Defense, if they were shorting Wagner on ammunition and weaponry before they're definitely not going to be more generous to them now.

[Dereich]

I guess Putin wants the US navy in the Black Sea.

Unlikely that Turkey would permit that kind of violation of the Montreux Convention.

[Dereich]

https://athletistic.com/esports/356674.html

"Ukrainian Dota 2 team withdrew from World Cup due to IESF decision to allow Russia to have flag and anthem"

International Computer Sports Federation ( has decided to allow Russia to participate which provoked Ukraine to withdraw their team from the event

It might, of course, be worth noting that this "World Cup" is a tier three tournament without involvement by major teams, organizers, sponsors, or players. Among Dota teams and players that matter the war has been sad and awkward since most of the great CIS teams included both Russian and Ukrainian players. Outside one pro Russian player being briefly suspended for taunting a rival Ukrainian player by drawing "Z"s during a match, the war has been nothing short of embarrassing for the Russian players and has clearly led to the decline of some of the most storied CIS teams.