Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[lilTommy]

11 MLAs are not running for reelection, all are PCs, that's about a third of their caucus.

3 of these seats are very competitive for the NDP, and are top tier targets even if the PC incumbent was running. The NDP has a stronger chance at winning here now (Kildonan-River East, Selkirk and McPhillips)

Since Stefanson was elected leader/Premier they have not toped any poll. The NDP range from 40% - 46%, the PCs from 34% - 39%, and the Liberals from 9% - 15%. But those figures don't show how important Winnipeg is. In the most recent poll the NDP leads in Winnipeg 53% to PCs 30%, Liberals at 10%.
The PCs hold the "ring" of outer city seats, except Transcona which was very close but the NDP snuck a win here, while the NDP hold the inner seats stretching north. There are 8-10 seats here that will be in play for the NDP to win, PCs to hold and thus government. The Liberals are going to play spoiler here, they have seen their vote increase especially in the south.

[lilTommy]

I suppose one can debate the importance of long prior elections, but one reason I don't think the comeback of the Manitoba P.Cs should be considered a surprise is that their vote share has been fairly consistent at at least 40% of the vote since 1986.

I look back to 1986 because the 1981 election was the last time that the provincial Liberals did not run a full slate of candidates.

In the 10 elections from 1986 on, the P.Cs have gotten at least 40% of the vote in 7.  The only exceptions were in 1988 (when the P.Cs returned to government) when provincial Liberal support surged under leader Sharon Carstairs especially in Winnipeg, and in 2003 and 2007 when the P.Cs were up against popular Premier Gary Doer.

The lowest vote share for the P.Cs from 1986 on is 36.3% of the vote in 2003.

Agreed I would say 40-45% is normal for PCs with over 45% only in really good elections and under 40% in bad elections.  A lot though depends on where votes are.  If not too far behind in Winnipeg can win, but if above 40% mostly due to North Korean like margins in rural southern areas, then they will lose.

Agreed, this is why we almost need to ignore the province wide vote and look at the Winnipeg polling specifically. Cause the PCs can very easily have a slim lead provincewide but the NDP could win if they have a solid lead in Winnipeg.
Rural Manitoba is very split (like SASK); PCs own most seats in the south, the NDP own those 4 Northern seats typically. You really only have about half a dozen truly competitive seats: Brandon East (and lets say West too), Selkirk, Interlake-Gimli, Dauphin... maybe Red River North, and maybe Swan River... but after that. 

[lilTommy]

Any chance the Premier loses her seat?

Nope. Her seat is Tuxedo, which has been held by the PCs in every election since its creation. Even during the last 4 term NDP government, Tuxedo voted typically 50%+ for the PCs. Very safe PC seat.

[lilTommy]

Liberals manage 49 candidates, 8 short of a full slate

Some notable competitive ridings here; Selkirk and Dauphin, but also Brandon West and Red River North.

[lilTommy]

New poll by Angus Reid has the NDP leading 47-41. This would be a landslide in seat

https://angusreid.org/manitoba-election-polling-ndp-pc-wab-kinew-heather-stefanson/

Winnipeg: NDP - 53%, PCs - 31%, Liberal 13% (will hold on to River Heights, but St. Boniface and Tyndall Park are going to be tough to hold)

Funny, the "Rest of Manitoba" is almost the reverse: PCs - 53%, NDP - 38%

Kinew (34%) is sited as best premier of over Stefanson (23%), even more bad news for the PCs, only half of 2019 PC voters think she would be the best premier.

[lilTommy]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

[lilTommy]

When Wab introduced himself like "How do you do, I'm Wab kinew" I laughed! if that's not a quintessentially Canadian Folksy Dad intro I don't know what is. I could feel his boys cringe at that

Also say some backlash against Stefanson for saying "those people" and then realising her mistake saying MMIW. Still she said it and it was heard

[lilTommy]

Brutal review of the PCs campaign

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/2023/09/28/tories-tumble-into-deep-dark-hole-at-the-end-of-campaign-trail

[lilTommy]

Pollsters have the Liberals anywhere from 15% (that seems too high) to 9%, the 10-12% is probably more accurate and closer to 10. The party does not have a full slate, which is trending to the advantage of the NDP, and b/c this has become so polarizing (PCs that's on you) progressives are trending NDP.

Of the three seats, I think Lamont's (St. Boniface) is the weakest. Tyndall Park is only held by the Liberals since it's a Lamaroux, BUT if there is a massive swing to the NDP she could lose. But I think she has to be favoured just on name alone. The NDP are running a filipino who make up the largest minority group in the riding. These two seats have only been held by the liberals since 2016 and 2017. If the NDP are polling well over 50% in Winnipeg, these seats have to been as in play, even with Lamaroux's name.

[lilTommy]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

Radio-Canada says that Stefanson did not campaign in Winnipeg between September 22 and yesterday.

That's a winning strategy if I ever heard of one. Don't even bother going to the city with a majority of the province's seats.

My guess would be she was in Brandon, and places like Selkirk, Interlake-Gimli, Dauphin, Swan River... the rural ridings held by the PCs but are top NDP targets. I think the PCs have given up on most of Winnipeg (except maybe 3-4 seats)

[lilTommy]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

CBC shows 2 polls left in Selkirk, about 600 votes separate the PCs and NDP. Any real chance this could flip to NDP?

looks like 7 seats undeclared, with 1 poll, is that advanced? Brandon West is close, less then 100 votes separated the PCs and NDP. Lagimodière and Waverley are both just over 100 separating the two.