Ontario Election 2022

[lilTommy]

We've had some polling since May, about 5 of them...but fairly "all over the place"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

From May4th to June 7th
PC:  32%, 36%, 33%, 34%, 37%
NDP:  22%, 25%, 28%, 25%, 33%
OLP:  36%, 28%, 27%, 26%, 22%

The PC base looks to be about 30%, at 37% they "could" win re-election with the vote split on the left/centre. But it would be close since the OLP (using most recent poll) are pulling from the PCs almost exclusively (NDP won 33% in 2018). It's obvious the "liberal" brand is strong, and that's because in Ontario the federal Liberals and provincial Liberals are pretty synonymous, unlike out west. It's fairly easy for someone to just sit with the OLP if they are not committed. Del Duca is a terribly boring and uncharismatic leader and does not have the "progressive" pull that Wynne did, add that to both Wynne and Coteau not running again in 2022; OLP fundraising has been pretty terrible. But we know the OLP base is 20%. Will centre/CR OLP-PC voters move back to the OLP? maybe in some urban ridings I could see that, the NDP could be hoping for that... a shift of say 2-5% from the PCs to the OLP would flip about a dozen seats to the NDP I suspect. Or could we see a rallying of the anti-ford vote moving to the NDP, rather then being a ideological vote we could see an anti-ford vote coalesce around the NDP (if Del Duca and OLP again are seen as too weak, not able to win, etc). Both is what the NDP want, a tack-to-the-right for the OLP, rally progressive/urban/young/minority/anti-ford voters.
It's still too early since the Province just moved into stage 2... it may come down to the fall/winter when the PCs will start to push an austerity agenda to "get back into the fiscal good books" (I just can not see them going any other way) and how the province reacts to what their plans are.   

[lilTommy]

We've had some polling since May, about 5 of them...but fairly "all over the place"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

From May4th to June 7th
PC:  32%, 36%, 33%, 34%, 37%
NDP:  22%, 25%, 28%, 25%, 33%
OLP:  36%, 28%, 27%, 26%, 22%

The PC base looks to be about 30%, at 37% they "could" win re-election with the vote split on the left/centre. But it would be close since the OLP (using most recent poll) are pulling from the PCs almost exclusively (NDP won 33% in 2018). It's obvious the "liberal" brand is strong, and that's because in Ontario the federal Liberals and provincial Liberals are pretty synonymous, unlike out west. It's fairly easy for someone to just sit with the OLP if they are not committed. Del Duca is a terribly boring and uncharismatic leader and does not have the "progressive" pull that Wynne did, add that to both Wynne and Coteau not running again in 2022; OLP fundraising has been pretty terrible. But we know the OLP base is 20%. Will centre/CR OLP-PC voters move back to the OLP? maybe in some urban ridings I could see that, the NDP could be hoping for that... a shift of say 2-5% from the PCs to the OLP would flip about a dozen seats to the NDP I suspect. Or could we see a rallying of the anti-ford vote moving to the NDP, rather then being a ideological vote we could see an anti-ford vote coalesce around the NDP (if Del Duca and OLP again are seen as too weak, not able to win, etc). Both is what the NDP want, a tack-to-the-right for the OLP, rally progressive/urban/young/minority/anti-ford voters.
It's still too early since the Province just moved into stage 2... it may come down to the fall/winter when the PCs will start to push an austerity agenda to "get back into the fiscal good books" (I just can not see them going any other way) and how the province reacts to what their plans are.  

Also while polls will change, I do think PCs are more likely to overperform polls than under for simple reason their vote skews heavily towards older voters who are more likely to show up.  By contrast NDP more likely to underperform for exact same reason.  Liberal support though should be close to accurate as support pretty even across age groups.  At same time Ford is pretty hated by left so I think you will see left coalesce to some degree.  OLP probably the better as they have an easier time winning in 905 than NDP does as well as almost no NDP supporters have PCs as second choice, whereas a minority of OLP supporters would go PC in an NDP-PC race.  At same time Howarth is a lot more popular than Del Duca and often leadership #'s are lead indicators so reason to believe Howarth will improve and Del Duca fall.  By same token OLP has higher ceiling as most NDP supporters would be willing to go for them if that is what it takes to get rid of Ford and OLP probably more acceptable to soft PC supporters than NDP is.

Still I think as explained above, all three parties do have a path to majority.  PCs probably favoured to win most seats but not certain.  By same token its majority or bust for Ford and good chance he falls short of a majority meaning very real possibility it is 1985 all over again where PCs win most seats, but NDP-Liberals form an agreement and defeat him on throne speech.

I think the take so far is pretty spot-on.

Here's my take on the "905", I really dislike this term to describe a region of voters. The 905 stretches from west of Belleville along the lake/401 up into York and Barrie, then south into Hamilton/Niagara. This is a huge area that actually votes rather differently depending on the Region within.
York - pretty OLP-PC swingy; in 2014 the OLP won all but 1 seat, in 2018 the PCs won them all. This is an NDP dead zone for the most part, they came second in two seats, 1 was a tie (23% for both the NDP and OLP, the other both the OLP and NDP were below 20%)
Durham - in 2018 the PCs won all but 1, that 1 being NDP Oshawa. the NDP moved into the clear second place choice though, pulling at least 30% in each riding. This region is much more mixed, and a three-way battle then many think. In 2014 the OLP held 3, PCs 1 NDP 1. The NDP tended to be the spoiler vote here too, where they pull from usually leads to the other party winning. That might change this election to the OLP being the spoiler. If the OLP starts to pull from the PCs. Ajax "could be" winnable for the NDP, they were less the 4000 votes away from beleaguered Rob Phillips (the former Finance minister who called it in from a tropical vacation during the travel ban). Still a very working class, unionized suburb, but diversifying away with more professionals to the benefit of Progressive parties as Torontonians move here for cheaper, larger housing.  
Peel - stark divide between Brampton and Mississauga; the NDP won 3 of the 5 Brampton seats and was less then 500 votes from winning Brampton West where they are running a "star" candidate this time. On the other hand Mississauga swings en-mass with the government. in 2014 the OLP won every seat, in 2018 the PCs won every seat. The only serious NDP winnable seat is M-Malton, it's the Brampton effect I think and that before the 2018 redistribution parts of this seat were in the seats held by Jagmeet Singh when he was an MPP.
Halton- similar to York, it's an OLP-PC swing region.
Hamilton-Niagara - of the 11 (ish) seats the NDP hold 7 and the PCs 4; the urban, industrial seats going NDP (Hamilton, St. Catharines, NFs) while the largely rural or suburban/xurban seats going PC. Brantford-Brant was only about 600 votes from being NDP won.

When people usually think "905" what they are typically thinking of is Halton/Peel/York, which is generally the OLP/PC battle (minus Brampton now provincially) and maybe Durham.

[lilTommy]

Just saw the Q2 fundraising numbers in Ontario:
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1417180940246388741

PCPO: $2,100,000
ONDP: $1,160,000
OLP: $206,000

Highest-ever second quarter in a non-election year for ONDP (pulled that from an NDP twitter guy!)

Have zero idea of the impact but yikes for the OLP! I did see that Q2 is generally not a huge Q for fundraising, nor is it the most "important". Still...

[lilTommy]

Horwath's persona isn't limited to being in opposition against Ford, like one of the posts above mentions.  Watch the Queens Park tapes from when she was the Leader of the 3rd party, in opposition to Kathleen Wynne's Liberals. Much the same type of questioning, I think when every single Queen's Park speech is hyperbolic, and "outrageous", it takes away from things that Ford is doing that are truly awful. Anyway, if that's how she chooses to engage in debate, that's fine. I don't think anyone is saying she shouldn't be allowed to.  I think for me, it's just not something that I'm attracted to as a voter. I've voted for Andrea's ONDP in each of the elections I've been able to vote (She's been there THAT long), so maybe there's fatigue. I do agree that the last election was probably her best chance. I hope she wins, because her policies would benefit the most Ontarians, and for the most part I think she does do what is "Right" (except for some reason she still believes Catholics should have their own discriminatory Education system). I'm someone who moved from one of those small union towns to Toronto, and what it means to be an NDP supporter is very different, whereas what it means to be a Liberal or OPC supporter is pretty similar no matter where in the province you are. So I'm curious to see how she will navigate that.

100% agree, (especially on the separate school boards) AND that I moved from a small non-union town to Toronto (oddly from a riding that voted in only 1 ONDP MPP from 75-81, guess which riding LOL).
Anyway, the point is true, Andrea and the ONDP got a lot of heat from urban/professional/leftists when the party took a more populist-left approach in 2014. BUT that style of campaigning targets smaller town, union workers, bread-an-butter issues over the more urban big policy professionals. The ONDP has to straddle this policy line to attract those PC-ONDP voters in places like SWOntario and the North, as well as in the 905. The urban/professional vote has mostly gone ONDP since 2018 (think places like KW, Kingston, London along with Toronto, Hamilton, Windsor. The last two are union cities that have always favoured the ONDP, but are more and more professional cities now. Ottawa is the only hold out where the OLP are still a strong force in the urban ridings. Chalk this to what, federal Liberals/civil service voting? Francophone voting history? The ONDP has maybe 1 or 2 potential gains here, maybe) 
I do think right now there is a huge parked vote with the OLP, it's always been a safe spot for voters to park and there is a lot of Federal Liberal sentiment, especially in ON where the two parties are the most similar.

[lilTommy]

Interestingly there are 4 MPPs from the class of 2018 who are not running again, one term and they are like "nope, not for me" LOL

All 4 are young and 3 are women, that does not look good for politics. 3 PCs and 1 NDPer, most in competitive ridings:
Kitchener South--Hespeler (mostly PC/ONDP, but i'd wager OLP will be in this one too), Durham (mostly PC/ONDP fight), Kingston and the Islands (probably ONDP/OLP fight), Scarborough Centre (all three parties)

So far 15 MPPs not running again; 9 PCs, 4 NDP, 1 OLP, 2 Indies (both elected PCs)

[lilTommy]

I only know of 3 NDP MPPs nit running again, not 4

Correct, sorry, Looks like so far just 3 (Arthur, Hatfield, Natyshak)

[lilTommy]

and now it IS 4 NDP MPPs not running again. Rima Berns-McGown has announced she will not reoffer in Beaches-East York.

I think this could actually be an opportunity for the ONDP to trade up. Nothing against Rima but she was very passionate a bit of a flakey academic social justice warrior type who got the nomination unopposed in 2018 when the conventional wisdom was that the NDP would have a hard time winning back that seat. I suspect this could be a good opportunity for the NDP to run someone high profile who would be seen as "cabinet minister material"

Matthew Kellway?

Though given how the seat's been generically gentrifying away from the NDP federally and arguably even municipally, I could see that 2018-era conventional wisdom returning to haunt the party, particularly if the Libs are in any way poised to push the ONDP back into third-party status, and given that former councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon's their candidate...

I'd like to see Janet Davis run for the ONDP, we'd have two former city councilors running.
It's interesting that the gentrification and movement from ONDP->OLP is happening mostly in the south, Beaches area, which used to be where the ONDP was strongest (old Beaches-Woodbine riding) And the East York area in the north of the riding has been trending OLP->ONDP for the most part provincially although federally this is still a Progressive-lean-Liberal riding. I think that was due to the old MPP Michael Prue who was the last mayor of East York (I think) but was a long time city councilor too.

 

[lilTommy]

What I'm seeing for the ONDP in the open seats, none nominated yet:

Beaches-East York: Dr. Kate Dupuis, a "Innovation Leader" at Sheridan College's Centre for Elder Research. In short, another academia-type. She did speak at the larger rally in Toronto over the wknd though.

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: Zaigham Butt, an Accountant and Director of the Hamilton Pakistan Business Association. A young BIPOC candidate as far as I could dig up.

ALSO
Toronto Centre ONDP MPP Suze Morrison is not running again due to her ongoing fight with endometriosis which she was diagnosed with in 2019. What might just be a coincidence, if you believe in that, City Councilor Kristyn Wong-Tam (who also represents the TO Centre ward) spoke at the same rally over the wknd. So that's out there.

[lilTommy]

What I'm seeing for the ONDP in the open seats, none nominated yet:

Beaches-East York: Dr. Kate Dupuis, a "Innovation Leader" at Sheridan College's Centre for Elder Research. In short, another academia-type. She did speak at the larger rally in Toronto over the wknd though.

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: Zaigham Butt, an Accountant and Director of the Hamilton Pakistan Business Association. A young BIPOC candidate as far as I could dig up.

ALSO
Toronto Centre ONDP MPP Suze Morrison is not running again due to her ongoing fight with endometriosis which she was diagnosed with in 2019. What might just be a coincidence, if you believe in that, City Councilor Kristyn Wong-Tam (who also represents the TO Centre ward) spoke at the same rally over the wknd. So that's out there.

It's official, Kristyn Wong-Tam is running for the ONDP in Toronto Centre
https://www.kristynwongtam.ca/personalannouncement?fbclid=IwAR2WBop0llAvwqVFD2uXRw3trpUlRGE4jHLcy8IKFI4-w3UGcmLRcqGIVik

This is a huge win for the ONDP; Wong-Tam has been one of THE faces of Progressive Toronto, she was the downtown, along with Mike Layton and Joe Cressy, all high profile councilors. But unlike Layton or Cressy, I believe she has endorsed (if not outright then "supported") both the NDP and Liberals at different levels, so this is a much bigger win for the party in trying to retain progressive anti-Ford votes. She has years of elected experience and there were rumor's of a mayoral run. Definitely a front bench MPP.

Very interesting with Kevin Yarde losing renomination. He did not have a very high profile at Queens Park, perhaps locally he did, but obviously not enough to counter a nomination contest. I haven't heard much of a push to have him replaced though, not like you had with Paul Miller (obviously a different issue) but there was little to no chatter about Yarde in any arenas I follow within the NDP so this must have been a hyper-local issue.

[lilTommy]

Andrea was going to step down regardless of how well the ONDP was going to do; The 31 seats puts them in a fairly strong position especially given what the perceived expectation was.
I also thought Andrea's speech was her best, THIS was the Horwath we needed to see at the debates.

The ONDP can breath a sigh of relief that they held Oshawa and Niagara Centre, they were close but they held on and they needed that! French and Burch should be given more prominent roles in order to boost the ONDP presence among industrial/working ridings. Ford massively pushed in these ridings and it payed off in gaining Essex and Windsor-Tecumseh.
St.Catharines I thought would be weaker for the ONDP, but they gained 3% off the OLP. It was the reverse in Niagara Centre where the NDP dropped 5% and OLP gained. The PCs vote stayed about the same in both seats.

Hamilton East - Paul Miller cost the ONDP the seat, the OLP too, but I think mostly it was Paul's sticking around as an f'u to the ONDP.

I'm pleasantly surprised at how well the ONDP did in central TO; Incumbency mattered here, although I thought BEY would be a bigger win for the OLP, had the ONDP nominated a stronger, more well known candidate they could have held it maybe. I also thought TSt.Pauls would go Liberal but I'm happy it did not, Andrew's is a very active and likeable person, so held it on her merit I think. I also thought Uni.Rosedale would be tough; a Green star candidate and a huge OLP turf in Rosedale. YSW would have been held by the ONDP had a Ford not run, it was much closer then I thought. I had HRBC also being lost by the ONDP but here we are. SFY being over 45% for the ONDP is a good vote, again the incumbency worked here. TC goes to show that, probably especially Cabbagetown is a strong OLP voting block, even with a star ONDP candidate. ScarboroughSW was the only seat where the ONDP saw a gain, about 2%; TorDan, PHP and Davenport are now plus 55%ish instead of plus 60%ish
Toronto has split though, in the Core you have the ONDP as the main progressive vote but Etobicoke and most of Scarborough and North York swung back to the OLP coming in second. Incumbents and the Core Progressives will much more easily swing OLP-ONDP depending on who looks to win, and with the ONDP and OLP at 23% provincewide, TO is split too.

Ottawa West - awesome, the ONDP gained 5% but the PCs also gained about 2%, this was one of if not the closest riding in 2018. The ONDP ran the same candidate, AND managed to do what they were trying to do provincewide, pull the OLP vote over to win the seat.