If the NDP was doing a better job as opposition, they could probably make Ottawa-Vanier competitive. Remember in the 2011 federal election, the NDP came within 10 points of picking the seat up. They would've done better in the provincial election if they had a Francophone candidate (and also maybe Lyra Evans wasn't electable? - the fact she's now a school trustee notwithstanding).
The thing with Ottawa-Vanier is it includes Sandy Hill and Lower Town, which are arguably Ottawa's most left wing neighbourhoods. That doesn't mean they're overwhelmingly NDP though, but their progressive slants show up in municipal elections. And another part of the riding, (Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward) is represented by an NDP-supported city councillor.
The ONDP nominated a young francophone woman this time, and during the 2019 FED they had (I feel) a very strong young francophone as well. And the NDP gained some ground over 2015, 2 points, but still at an election where the NDP lost votes and seats, that's a good result
Myriam Djilane for the NDP, while the Liberals have a strong candidate in Lucille Collard a School Trustee and French board chair. At least on paper she's strong.
I'm wondering where the PC vote is going, the 21% or so, I can't see the PCs gaining anything more, would that be their base? they lost votes in 2018.
Both strong OLP seats, but they are fighting for both. I suspect the NDP will concentrate more in Vanier, while the PCs will push harder in Orleans.
