Alberta Election 2019

[lilTommy]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

Two names have already popped up as likely candidates:
http://daveberta.ca/2018/07/brian-mason-retires-ndp-edmonton-highlands-norwood/

2015 federal NDP candidate Janis Irwin and former Public Interest Alberta executive director Bill Moore-Kilgannon.

[lilTommy]

Looks like Mainstreet has the NDP leading in both Edmonton and Calgary: Alberta is looking more and more like BC; NDP (unified left) vs UCP (unified right).

Edmonton
NDP - 46.4%
UCP - 37.8%
AP - 7.3%
FCP - 3.9%
Green - 2.4%
ALP - 2.2%

Calgary
NDP - 45%
UCP - 43.9%
AP - 3.9%
ALP - 3.9%
FCP - 1.6%
Green - 1.6%

Rest of Alberta
UCP - 65%
NDP - 23.3%
AP - 5.9%
FCP - 2.8%
ALP - 2%

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet from Yesterday:
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/united-conservatives-headed-to-majority/?fbclid=IwAR27FyKxDTMjLRRDUVo1bLibO4enox_AL5WjY9MeMOnxAdEt9xD3q-z-PC0

UCP - 47.5%
NDP - 40.1%
AB - 7.9%
ALP - 2.1%

What is the likelihood (my hope) that the UCP blows out their vote in rural Alberta, mostly the south, as well as a few, urban seats mostly in south Calgary, and the NDP squeaks in with a slim majority, 44. That's 8 seats lost, say 4 in the cities and 4 rural?
We are seeing the NDP leading in Edmonton, basically a tie in Calgary, but blown out in Rural Alberta.In Calgary and Edmonton if the UCP vote is concentrated in only a few seats...
perfect scenario for the NDP?

[lilTommy]

Are UCP connected in any way with CPC?

Unofficially, but it's the same people.
From what I know, only the NDP is officially linked to the provincial partys.
Which is why you see in Ontario the PCs, Progressive Conservatives and in Saskatchewan, the SaskParty, etc... All are conservative parties with I would assume have unofficial ties to the federal CPC.