Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

Here is some very interesting data:
https://innovativeresearch.ca/ontario-politics-in-depth-values-and-attitudes/

Broken down by "Value cluster" and "Alienation segmentation"
The 2014 vs 2018 trends, showing the growing support for the NDP and away from the Liberals.
Groups like Core Left, Left Liberals the NDP now lead; large growth too for the NDP under Thrifty Moderates.

I don't fully "get" some of these groupings under Alienation Segmentation?

[lilTommy]

Using Kyle Hutton's transposition, I get:

Lib: 49.1%
PC: 23.1%
NDP: 22.2%
Grn: 3.9%
Other 1.7%

Must be including Pickering-Scarborough East or something.

Compared with IPSOS 416 poll:

NDP 38%, -> +16%
PC 34%, -> +11%
OLP 26% -> -23%

[lilTommy]

Yeah, Ford should underperform compared to Harper in wealthier ridings, but will likely do better in Scarborough, York and north Etobicoke.

That's probably good news for the premier as her seat went narrowly Tory in 2011 so notwithstanding the polls she might hold it.  I also think in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Eglinton-Lawrence Ford will underperform Harper 2011 but may still win both if the Liberals implode badly enough as NDP probably too weak to win either.  Scarborough-Agincourt and Etobicoke North and maybe even Scarborough-Guildwood are ones I could see Ford winning that Harper couldn't.  Humber River-Black Creek also might go NDP and even Toronto Centre with the loss of Rosedale could be picked up by the NDP.  On the other hand Fort York-Spadina and University-Rosedale may stay Liberal even if NDP gets over 40 seats although cannot see NDP winning outright and losing those two.

Spadina-Fort York is very Progressive-Swing, It was very easily won by the NDP consistently (the old Trinity-Spadina) even with the condo boom; 2014 and 2015 were big overall swings to the Liberals in TO which is why they won here, but can easily swing back to the NDP.

Toronto is interesting since back in 2014 the NDP polled really well in seats we now see Ford winning or were Ford won in the mayoral; Etobicoke North, Scarborough North specifically. While I see Humber River-Black Creek going NDP along with York Sotuh-Weston, and the three DT riding's going NDP; previously I would have said Etobicoke North is a big target for the NDP, Ford threw a wrench in that. In Scarborough I think SSW is the best pick-up for the NDP, this is not/wasn't a Ford/PC area for the most part. Memories of 2011Fed! I think S.Guildwood might be the only OLP seat, maybe. Scarborough North is a toss, the PCs won the by-election but the NDP consistently's polled very well, if the OLP vote bleeds out, and goes en-mass to the NDP they can win here. But this is big time Ford-nation so.

I think Etobicoke-Lakeshore is also interesting, there is some NDP history and base here, but I think its just enough to push this into the PC column, not enough to win outright... unless they sweep the south end of the riding. 

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/innovativerg?lang=en

I can't find the data, but its linked in their TWitter above, Innovative REsearch Group poll:

PC - 35%
NDP - 31%
OLP - 27%

I find those OLP numbers high? but the graph shows a major downward trend.

[lilTommy]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

Isn't Barrie more and more detached from Simcoe, through?

Barrie is the centre of Simcoe County.

I'm aware, I have family in Angus. My point is than Barrie and the rest of the county voting patterns are diverging.

I "Think" your right, you only need to take a look at 2014 where the Liberals won Barrie. I think as Barrie grows more and diversifies in population, particularly ethnic mix. As it grows as a commuter city, the city will look more like say York Region, swinging between the Liberals and PCs/CONs. But Redistribution has hurt that, It's split the city in two and added large areas of rural townships, so they both are much more PC seats from what I can see.

Barrie-Innisfil; mostly urban Barrie, say 60/40. Innisfil represents only 36000 people, Looking at 2014, the Liberals didn't do that bad here, Innisfil was not a PC sweep at all compared to the rest of Simcoe.

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte: again mostly urban, about 60/40 again. Springwater is about 20000 and only half of Oro-Medonte is in this riding, so say 10000 of the 20000 in that township. Springwater and Oro-Medonte look to be much more PC heavy.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/

Given that the NDP had a very highly publicized and well attended event in Barrie/Simcoe last week, the party is at least taking this area somewhat seriously as a target. From CityTv last night, it was noted Andrea has not yet been to an NDP held seat? (which is hugely telling if that's the case!)

[lilTommy]

From CityTv last night, it was noted Andrea has not yet been to an NDP held seat? (which is hugely telling if that's the case!)

That's not quite true. Andrea was in NDP held Kenora last week

... I was skeptical of that statement. But Kenora-Rainy River is a newly re-distributed?, I wonder if they did not consider that and NDP seat?
Anyway, She's been in Brampton as well, a lot. And was in Hamilton to release the platform. I think it's more accurate to say Horwath has visited MOSTLY non-ndp ridings.

[lilTommy]

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

I think, since this is your riding, you might have a better idea. But London North Centre has seen the NDP vote increase from 2007 at 16% to 2014 where the vote was 30%. I agree, its figuring out where the Liberal vote will go in certain areas. If we go back to the Old pre-95 districts, London North was a very solid PC seat, even staying PC in 90 (mostly north of Oxford west of Highbury).

You might have answered this, but the Liberals won almost all the polls west of Adelaide, where do you think this vote will migrate to?  

[lilTommy]

To be fair, the area east of Wonderland Rd is quite a bit more wealthy. Still though, many of the wealthier parts of London West still voted NDP.

That's the rub here, "wealthy" does not always equate to PC voter, London West is a good example of that. The NDP galvanized the anti-Liberal voter; in SW This is happening again. Multiple polls are showing the NDP leading in the SW.
Now, $200K+ wealthy, that might be a PC voter... but not always so.  

Also, I think it would be safe to assume voters West of Adelaide and South of Huron/Sarnia, they will swing NDP.

[lilTommy]

To be fair, the area east of Wonderland Rd is quite a bit more wealthy. Still though, many of the wealthier parts of London West still voted NDP.

That's the rub here, "wealthy" does not always equate to PC voter, London West is a good example of that. The NDP galvanized the anti-Liberal voter; in SW This is happening again. Multiple polls are showing the NDP leading in the SW.
Now, $200K+ wealthy, that might be a PC voter... but not always so.  

Also, I think it would be safe to assume voters West of Adelaide and South of Huron/Sarnia, they will swing NDP.
Peggy Satler's name helped win the riding over and hold it in 2014, now I think the overall NDP momentum will see her vote increase and the NDP win more seats in SWO like London North Centre.

[lilTommy]

The NDP does have a more difficult path to victory, given the historical vote since 95. But lets look at the momentum vote shift:

Southwest:
        2014    2018(Ipsos)  Change
NDP - 30% -   43% -         +13
PC -   34% -   35% -         +1
OLP - 28% -   15% -         -13
This moves, with some certainty, PC held seats to the NDP as well as eliminates all OLP seats in the SW.

Toronto:
        2014    2018(Ipsos)   Change
NDP - 22% -  34%  -          +12
PC -   23% -  37%  -          +14
OLP - 49% -  27%  -          -22
Dismal for the OLP, lucky if they hold on to 3-4 seats, NDP will be lucky 8-10 and the PCs with 11-14. The city would be very divided, PCs holding almost all the Etobicoke/North York/Scarborough, the NDP holding the Toronto/East York/York seats. The 2014 numbers don't reflect the Ford effect, so I think that makes this interesting since the NDP were the second party in 3-4 of those suburban seats, not the PCs, but those same seats are lean PC right now.

905
       2014    2018(Ipsos)   Change
NDP - 21% -  36%  -          +15
PC -   31% -  35%  -          +4
OLP - 40% -  27%  -          -13
The 905 is I think were the high NDP numbers will mean PC seats, The NDP can realistically target all 5 Brampton seats (more like 4 of 5), 2 in Mississauga and 4 of 5 in Durham. The rest, including all in York region are likely to go PC, I can't even think of any seat that will stay Liberal?

I think an idea of where the NDP can win, are rural seats where the combined NDP/OLP vote is above the PCs, if the PCs pulled in 40% or less, It might be a seat to watch. So non-SW seats like Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Simcoe North, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, etc. Not normally NDP leaning seats, but Liberal collapse with most of the vote migrating to NDP, even 5% PC moving to NDP... these areas elected the in the 90's.  

[lilTommy]

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

Very true.  From an NDP point of view, it's actually better if these "John Tory Liberal" ridings stay red.

Absolutely; and I think some will; Toronto-St.Paul's, Don Valley West, Don Valley North, I still think Eglinton-Lawrence is going Liberal, maybe Willodwdale and I'd say Scarborough-Guildwood as well, those are my picks for OLP seats in TO.

I actually think the PC vote in Toronto, will be inefficient, it will be too focused in Etobicoke and Scarborough, 3 Etobicoke ridings (If he wins his own, PCs have a starting point of 22%) York Centre, Scarborough North, Centre, Rouge park (I can see staying OLP), Agincourt, Don Valley East - 8-9. 

The Anti-Ford vote will be heaviest in TO, since well we have had experience with Doug and Rob; Its seeing if the OLP vote will migrate more to the NDP then the PCs in those key ridings like Humber River-Black Creek, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, these are NDP targets that should be also Ford PC targets, where the OLP vote will be important. Is this OLP vote more anti-Ford or die hard OLP? or too-rich-to-vote-NDP?

[lilTommy]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume.  

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

1. It's Ontario - there aren't many ridings that any party has a lock on. Coalitions constantly change. Horwath and the NDP currently have very broad appeal. Polling suggests that they have significant appeal with swing/centrist voters. They even appear to have appeal with conservatives. Polling also suggests that the OLP is winning roughly 0 of voters in either category. That's a recipe for the NDP sweeping areas in unexpected ways - contrary to what you'd expect, left-liberals and "progressives" are not driving the movement towards the NDP.
2. Citing Trump in any capacity when making the arguments you are making is foolish, even if it's in passing - even in the United States, it's possible for supposed "structural advantages" to evaporate and we're talking about Ontario, a province where in three consecutive elections, three different parties landslided the competition in late 80s to mid 90s. When coalitions change, they tend to do so in dramatic ways.

To be more blunt, you're using historical evidence to make claims about a reality where the OLP is about as popular as AIDs and the NDP is polling near 40%. This is bizarre. You cannot talk about "structural advantages" when we don't see a structure and a party has surged by 15 percentage points! That makes no sense!

In regards to #1. The NDP momentum, from 10 days ago now, but goes more to the point I want to make, The NDP has basically already pulled over all the "Core Left" 47% (+17% since 2014) and now lead the "Left-Liberal" group 38% (+18% since 2014). This is the voting group that lead to the NDP losing seats in Toronto, and held them back from winning places like Ottawa Centre.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/ontario-politics-in-depth-values-and-attitudes/

But to your point, the NDP is seeing huge growth among "Thrifty Moderates" 31% (+10% since 2014) But so have the PCs 39% (+18 since 2014) This group is where the NDP needs to win over more of if they want to be government.
The PCs have eaten out the "Business Liberal" vote, 37% tied with the OLP, but +16 since 2014 while the OLP has seen -17%.

There is an interesting section called "Canadian Dreamers"

"Meanwhile, some of the economically alienated voters who initially were rallying to the Doug Ford PCs appear to be shifting to the NDP.
Voters who reject the idea you can be anything you want in Ontario if you work for it have shifted from supporting the PCs in April to the NDP in early May.  However, the NDP has also gained in two of the three clusters that are struggling to some degree but believe in the Canadian dream.  There is now a three-way tie among Canadian Dream Hopeful voters while the NDP and Liberals are closing the gap with the PCs among the Canadian Dream Heavy Strugglers."

The NDP in rural areas, in particular SWO, I think their chances are rather good. It's been stated that this is not the same as 90's sweep. But looking at the 90's you had the FCP, which at most took 12% in one riding, the Confederation wasn't really an impact but FCP was running in most seats. Today you have the Greens who effectively take that 5-12% in the SW as well, in some ridings much higher like Guelph and Dufferin-Caledon. Some of the riding results from 90, look similar to what we have today but the PCs in third. Today we have the Liberal vote imploding, and I don't see the bulk of this vote going PC, not at this point. The OLP-PC voter already jumped ship back in 2011, when the OLP lost most of the SW to the PCs (except Essex which went NDP) If the PC vote starts to slip even more, I'd expect the SW to look like it did in 2003, but NDP rather then Liberal.

 

[lilTommy]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume.  

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

1. It's Ontario - there aren't many ridings that any party has a lock on. Coalitions constantly change. Horwath and the NDP currently have very broad appeal. Polling suggests that they have significant appeal with swing/centrist voters. They even appear to have appeal with conservatives. Polling also suggests that the OLP is winning roughly 0 of voters in either category. That's a recipe for the NDP sweeping areas in unexpected ways - contrary to what you'd expect, left-liberals and "progressives" are not driving the movement towards the NDP.
2. Citing Trump in any capacity when making the arguments you are making is foolish, even if it's in passing - even in the United States, it's possible for supposed "structural advantages" to evaporate and we're talking about Ontario, a province where in three consecutive elections, three different parties landslided the competition in late 80s to mid 90s. When coalitions change, they tend to do so in dramatic ways.

To be more blunt, you're using historical evidence to make claims about a reality where the OLP is about as popular as AIDs and the NDP is polling near 40%. This is bizarre. You cannot talk about "structural advantages" when we don't see a structure and a party has surged by 15 percentage points! That makes no sense!

In regards to #1. The NDP momentum, from 10 days ago now, but goes more to the point I want to make, The NDP has basically already pulled over all the "Core Left" 47% (+17% since 2014) and now lead the "Left-Liberal" group 38% (+18% since 2014). This is the voting group that lead to the NDP losing seats in Toronto, and held them back from winning places like Ottawa Centre.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/ontario-politics-in-depth-values-and-attitudes/

But to your point, the NDP is seeing huge growth among "Thrifty Moderates" 31% (+10% since 2014) But so have the PCs 39% (+18 since 2014) This group is where the NDP needs to win over more of if they want to be government.
The PCs have eaten out the "Business Liberal" vote, 37% tied with the OLP, but +16 since 2014 while the OLP has seen -17%.

There is an interesting section called "Canadian Dreamers"

"Meanwhile, some of the economically alienated voters who initially were rallying to the Doug Ford PCs appear to be shifting to the NDP.
Voters who reject the idea you can be anything you want in Ontario if you work for it have shifted from supporting the PCs in April to the NDP in early May.  However, the NDP has also gained in two of the three clusters that are struggling to some degree but believe in the Canadian dream.  There is now a three-way tie among Canadian Dream Hopeful voters while the NDP and Liberals are closing the gap with the PCs among the Canadian Dream Heavy Strugglers."

The NDP in rural areas, in particular SWO, I think their chances are rather good. It's been stated that this is not the same as 90's sweep. But looking at the 90's you had the FCP, which at most took 12% in one riding, the Confederation wasn't really an impact but FCP was running in most seats. Today you have the Greens who effectively take that 5-12% in the SW as well, in some ridings much higher like Guelph and Dufferin-Caledon. Some of the riding results from 90, look similar to what we have today but the PCs in third. Today we have the Liberal vote imploding, and I don't see the bulk of this vote going PC, not at this point. The OLP-PC voter already jumped ship back in 2011, when the OLP lost most of the SW to the PCs (except Essex which went NDP) If the PC vote starts to slip even more, I'd expect the SW to look like it did in 2003, but NDP rather then Liberal.

Tommy, I mostly agree with you but I don't think you're discussion of 1990 vote splits is right. FCP did top out at 12%, but they also put up lots of high single digit results and these numbers get even higher when you throw COR into the mix. That's a big deal when we're talking sub 5% wins like a lot of the rural NDP wins. Even if you make generous allowances for some of those voters going NDP or staying home if FCP and COR weren't on the ballot, there's 8 or 9 mostly rural seats that the NDP won off the backs of vote splits

Taking a look at some of those combined FCP/COR votes in 90:
Niagara Falls - 12%
St.Catharines-Brock - 8%
St.Catharines - 11%
Wentworth North - 6%
Lambton - 14% (I think the highest combined support)
Sarnia - 11%
Someone can correct me but those are the only seats with both FCP/COR candidates.

But your right, many seats were won with 30-36% because of PC/OLP votes split. I don't see the OLP vote really holding up like in 90 going by polling.

[lilTommy]

I was talking province wide and including seats where only one fringe party ran, so you can throw in Durham East, Peterborough, and Huron. More to the point, those numbers were relatively small, but they were enough in those seats to swing it. E.g. FCP got 10% in Huron and the NDP won by 3%. I don't think it's a stretch to say 1/3 of those FCPers would have voted Tory.

AH, I was specifically talking about the SW, since the NDP is arguably leading with a large margin and has the best shots ts seats from the PCs. I'm also not disagreeing in the split in 90, helping to elect NDP.
based on Ipsos, the NDP has seen a 13% swing, the PCs only 1% swing; Arguably that moves about 5-7 seats to the NDP, I can't see a swing like the not having the NDP pick up the low fruit from 2014 from the PCs and Liberals.

[lilTommy]

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

There isn't likely going to be seat gains for the PCs in SW Ontario, but they're likely to keep what they have.  The NDP will almost certainly succeed in driving the Liberals out of Waterloo region and London, but defeating PC MPPs in the region is harder.

I can see, based on polling which has the PCs stagnant (again referred previously, using Ipsos SW), PC seats that I see going NDP, even if they are the opposition are:

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (this new boundary gains all NDP polls from Essex)
Sarnia-Lambton

If trends continue, and the PCs start to slip, which is completely realistic:

Huron-Bruce
Perth-Wellington
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Oxford
Elgin-Middlesex-London
** everyone of these seats saw a decrease in both PC and OLP vote and Increase for the NDP in 2014, and I expect that overall trend to continue.

[lilTommy]

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

There isn't likely going to be seat gains for the PCs in SW Ontario, but they're likely to keep what they have.  The NDP will almost certainly succeed in driving the Liberals out of Waterloo region and London, but defeating PC MPPs in the region is harder.

I can see, based on polling which has the PCs stagnant (again referred previously, using Ipsos SW), PC seats that I see going NDP, even if they are the opposition are:

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (this new boundary gains all NDP polls from Essex)
Sarnia-Lambton

If trends continue, and the PCs start to slip, which is completely realistic:

Huron-Bruce
Perth-Wellington
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Oxford
Elgin-Middlesex-London
** everyone of these seats saw a decrease in both PC and OLP vote and Increase for the NDP in 2014, and I expect that overall trend to continue.

Hey, that's my riding! I'm not very optimistic about it flipping, even if the NDP end up being ahead of the PCs. Only way it happens is if Woodstock/Ingersoll go very strongly NDP. Hardeman is really strong in the rural portions of the district. The Liberal areas could very well be OLP 14/PC 18 areas (all the Woodstock Liberal 2014 polls are in relatively wealthy areas of town).

Very cool! You'd have a good on the ground feel. Looks like in 2014, Ingersoll went really strong for the NDP, Woodstock looks mixed and Tillsonburg is leaning PC. Whats the likely hood of the NDP increasing in Woodstock?, looks like North of Dundas Street was mostly PC/OLP, some NDP strength. And in Tillsonburg?, most PC support was west of Hwy 15.
As mentioned, this could be an urban/small town and Rural divide. With Woodstock/Ingersoll/Tilsonburg making up about 70000 of the population. The NDP would need some rural polls, more then the 3 or so they won in 2014.

[lilTommy]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

I think that the NDP are genuinely overwhelmed by all this.  We'll see how capable Andrea Horwath is in gearing up a party of protest and moulding it into a potential party of government.  Bob Rae did it on the fly and it didn't quite work out, but he also had a perfectly split OLP-PC vote assisting him  Horwath has no such luck (unless Ford somehow shoots himself in the foot).

BTW, I have heard about that EML poll (where the PC incumbent Yurek is neck and neck with the NDP challenger) and I find it hard to accept, knowing that PC had close to 50% in the past, but we'll see.

YAY, I literally, just above, had Elgin-Middlesex-London on my list of highly realistic possible NDP pick ups.

[lilTommy]

Ideally, the "John Tory Liberal" constituency of North Toronto/North York stays Liberal but the Ford municipal vote in Scarborough doesn't really translate into PC votes in the end.

I suppose that's possible.  The Liberals are still AFAIK polling close to 30% in Toronto and I don't think there's been an even drop everywhere.  I suspect their vote has tanked much more in "Ford Nation" (remember that some working class outer TO seats including the one Ford is running in stayed Liberal in the 2011 federally) than in the more well-to-do districts.

If Liberals are at 30%, they just play kingmaker.  Due to distribution of vote, PCs at 30% in 416 wins a lot of seats due to poor showing in downtown whereas NDP at 30% also wins a lot of seats due to strong support downtown and pockets in the suburbs.  Liberal support in 416 tends to be evenly spread out so if at 40%, they sweep the city, if it only 30% they lose almost everything.

The Pollara had no Toronto Regional, but Yes the TO liberal vote is rather strong, they will out poll the province wide vote. I think Ipsos had the OLP at 27, but province wide were low 20's. There's probably 3-5 seats that will remain OLP even at around/just under 30%.

[lilTommy]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

I would classify the below as TCTC OLP/NDP, Lean-NDP
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

These are swing progressive ridings, not solid Liberal as detailed on previous pages. The only Solid Liberal area is Rosedale, which represents probably less then 40% of University-Rosedale.

My call for OLP seats:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Don Valley North
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
... my TCTC is Willowdale.

[lilTommy]

[[/quote]

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.
[/quote]

We have to look at local riding characteristics as well as larger swings and polling.
For Don Valley North, there is an inarguable Star Liberal candidate and the PC candidate is weaker and lesser known, that give the OLP a local boost in that the candidates name can help hold some OLP vote on personal popularity. DVN does not have a very strong NDP base, under 20% I believe, so the logical anti-ford vote should migrate to the OLP. I wont argue that the PC polling increase will see their vote increase here but I think the advantage is going to go to the local OLP and Candidate herself. I think the Anti-ford vote will be a stronger motivator then the anti-wynne vote in Toronto specifically. Their vote has been halved and that'why they are pegged for only 5 or so seats.

In Toronto Centre; you do not have an incumbent OLP running either but no "Star" OLP candidate, in fact the NDP nominated I believe about a month earlier or so then the OLP. The NDP has a much strong voter base here and this, the entire core of the DT, is a swing progressive area with a very low conservative voter base. Remember the NDP pulled in over 40% in a By-election and General election (Just under 40) under the old boundaries which included the heavy Liberal Rosedale. The Increase in PC vote is not coming from places like this, and if it is, that PC vote is coming from the OLP, not the NDP.  

[lilTommy]

It's NDP 47, PC 33, Lib 14

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/25/ndp-surges-ahead-in-poll.html

Vs the last Poll May 9th

PC - 40%
NDP - 33%
OLP - 22%

PC -7
NDP +14
OLP -8

In terms of personal approval:
Horwath was at 43 per cent approval, 26 per cent disapproval, and 31 per cent didn’t know.

Ford was at 32 per cent approval, 51 per cent disapproval, and 17 per cent didn’t know.

Wynne was at 19 per cent approval, 69 per cent disapproval, and 11 per cent didn’t know.

[lilTommy]

Interesting riding battle here, Niagara West

https://globalnews.ca/news/4230154/ontario-election-niagara-west-candidates-youthful/

The average age of the 4 candidates... 21!
Oosterhoff won a by-election and is 20, the NDP candidate Fric is also 20, the Liberals are the old man in the bunch at 27, and the Greens are running the youngest at 18.

What? I have never seen this! That's. Awesome! So no matter who wins, the MPP will be under 30.

[lilTommy]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

I added my two cents to this pages ago, but I will add my thoughts.
SWO, rural is based on different agriculture, its been tobacco, fruits like tomatoes, wine, breeding, etc. More cash crop.
Also in the SW, b/c of the smaller town industries being based around manufacturing this has meant a much stronger union presence in the area. Historically its been mostly British and Loyalist.

Eastern Ontario, from what I remember was much more Dairy farming.
The character of the towns was not based on manufacturing the same way, so there has never a huge union presence.
I also think the linguistic and history of Eastern ontario having a larger French population, which was more historically heavily catholic.

I'm sure there is more...

[lilTommy]

Also Forum poll is odd than unweighted numbers are 342 PC, 307 NDP, 143 Liberal, 46 Green, 16 other parties so seems like massive re-weighting to me.  Not saying NDP isn't ahead, but using just raw numbers it is 40% PC, 36% NDP 16.7% Liberal so going from that to 47% NDP, 33% PC, and 14% Liberal asides from Liberal numbers seems to be a stretch.  Ekos apparently shows NDP with big lead so look forward to seeing theirs.  Mainstreet stated PCs still ahead although tightening.  Innovative is supposed to come out later today as well.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/960e2f63-dc00-4efa-be0a-f6b00f99ce88Horserace%20Mid-Campaign.pdf

Seat Estimates (always funny) - small same no?
NDP - 79!
PC - 40
OLP - 5

NDP lead EVERY region? 41% East, 44% 416 & 905, 57%! SW, 45% North
NDP lead EVERY age group BUT 65+, and only trail by 2 40% PC vs 38% NDP), and both Male (44%) and Female (50%)

[lilTommy]

Uh oh

http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/05/25/pc-candidates-accuse-ndp-ignoring-anti-semitism-within-party/

#fail
I know Tasleem, I've worked with her before, being anti-Semitic is not something I'd call her, since she spent her life in interfaith work. But sharing a Hitler quote (even one that is not even remotely anti-semetic) is still pretty dumb, not hateful just dumb.

Her anti-war comments, anti-Canadian forces comments are, well nothing "explosive" there are huge numbers of people who are pacifist.

THIS from Ford PCs, who have candidates who are outright ant-mulsim, anti-women, anti-LGBT, who don't believe in climate change, who support the rich having acccess to better healthcare, who broke the law on using data... please.